Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[ottermax]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/iowa-republican-precinct-results.html


The precinct results really highlight how Trump successfully captures not only rural voters, but also small town and "urban" voters. He really only struggles in a particular kind of suburb which is not very populous especially in a state like Iowa.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Trump was playing the Phantom of the Opera theme at his watch party, lol. I always wonder how the coal miners and corn farmers in his crowds interpret his love for lavish Broadway musicals, celebrity gossip, fashion, and "big beautiful boys." He truly missed his calling as a sassy elderly gay man.

What the hell was that all about?" Trump said. "We've got enough problems with South Korea with trade. On top of that, they give them best movie of the year. Was it good? I don't know."

….

The audience booed when Trump mentioned the Academy Awards and then cheered when he said: "Can we get like ''Gone with the Wind' back please? 'Sunset Boulevard,' so many great movies."

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/arts/trump-disparages-parasites-oscar-win

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Haley loses Johnson County by 8 votes. 8 votes made the difference between Trump sweeping every county and not.

Now it's showing Haley wins it by 1 vote....

So if it goes for Haley in the '24 PUB Primary is BRTD allowed to go there for an EMO gig???!!!

I've only been to a single show in Iowa, and it was in a county Trump won with 60%.

And the precinct had the odd results of Trump 17-Haley 5-Vivek 1

[DrScholl]

Trump was playing the Phantom of the Opera theme at his watch party, lol. I always wonder how the coal miners and corn farmers in his crowds interpret his love for lavish Broadway musicals, celebrity gossip, fashion, and "big beautiful boys." He truly missed his calling as a sassy elderly gay man.

What the hell was that all about?" Trump said. "We've got enough problems with South Korea with trade. On top of that, they give them best movie of the year. Was it good? I don't know."

….

The audience booed when Trump mentioned the Academy Awards and then cheered when he said: "Can we get like ''Gone with the Wind' back please? 'Sunset Boulevard,' so many great movies."

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/arts/trump-disparages-parasites-oscar-win

Not really surprising he'd like a movie about a delusional woman who refuses to believe that her time has passed and eventually shoots a man.

[Progressive Pessimist]

1/3 of the caucus electorate tonight opposes a national abortion ban.

Only a slim majority was MAGA.

Trump had major slippage in the metros.

35% or so of voters say a conviction would be disqualifying.


I wonder if Trump may be a weaker general election candidate than we think.

Well it should be noted Trump has slid like 5-10% in polls that have tested a scenario where he is convicted. The issue is he's currently far enough ahead that he could still win with a conviction. But yes, he is obviously a weak candidate, there's a reason Nikki Haley is winning by double digits in every poll that has at least one candidate over 10% (so not a comically large number of undecideds).

His position is absolutely not strong enough where he can survive a conviction. Any lead he has is contingent on Biden's support not being fully behind him yet.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hahahahaha!!!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1746411802190115173

[Alben Barkley]

Looks like Haley wins Johnson County by a single vote, preventing a clean sweep for Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, this primary is over before it actually started. Finishing 3rd is a bad sign for Haley, though I never expected her to win NH in the first place. That said, the media's desperation to frame this or create some sort of a horserace was laughable.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yup, this primary is over before it actually started. Finishing 3rd is a bad sign for Haley, though I never expected her to win NH in the first place. That said, the media's desperation to frame this or create some sort of a horserace was laughable.

Can Trump outperform Gore 2000?

[2016]

The big Problem for the Republican Party going forward with Trump. Perception matters more then the actual verdict says DeSantis' Supporter Gene Church who originally is from Pensacola, Florida



Even if Trump gets convicted and then wins on appeal the Democrats will run Ads non-stop saying the Republican Party is a basket of criminals. He's right.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, this primary is over before it actually started. Finishing 3rd is a bad sign for Haley, though I never expected her to win NH in the first place. That said, the media's desperation to frame this or create some sort of a horserace was laughable.

Can Trump outperform Gore 2000?

Depends on when Rob! and Haley drop out. But yes, probably. Gore got 75% of the national vote in the 2000 Dem primaries. If Trump remains the only real candidate after the early states or even ST, it's highly likely.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747120436444348902

[Agafin]

Polling in general seems to have been very good since the 2022 midterms, including Iowa's caucus as it turns out (which you'd normally expect to be far shakier to poll given it's a caucus with very low turnout). This means that the polling showing Trump nearly even with Biden on the PV is true and thus, a bad sign for the latter. Good thing there's still 10 months of campaigning to go though.

[bilaps]

It seems like a lot of people think the GOP caucus is like the Democratic one. It’s much closer to a primary. There’s a secret ballot; voters aren’t gathering in groups and then reallocating.

I know but it's still dumb to have prayers/speeches before the voting and then count everything by hanhd.

why?

[bilaps]

I knew better than to listen to the CNN panel. Also, why do we have 3 Republicans on the panel (David Urban, Holmes, and Farrah-Grriffen) and just 1 Dem (Bedingifeld)? I honestly hate these hack panels and wish we'd get rid of *all* the partisans and just have actual analysts, but seems incredibly lopsided.

Because it's a f...ing republican primary

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Looks like total turnout will end up at just over 110,000. In 2016, 186,000 voted. Republicans in disarray. 

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

[Woody]

The results show that Trump is currently leading the general election as of right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The results show that Trump is currently leading the general election as of right now.

One can make a good case for Trump currently leading the GE for various reasons, but results of the Iowa caucus are not one of them.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

You know, perhaps in retrospect, a Haley-DeSantis non-aggression pact and/or corrupt bargain where Haley didn't contest IA and DeSantis wouldn't contest NH would have actually worked out to hold Trump to reasonable margins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa is an 8/12 pt R state now there isn't any NAACP chapters neither is NH and SC is an R leaning state except for NV none of these early state wins by Trump means much

[Senator Incitatus]

Donald J. Trump receives the highest share of the recorded vote for any non-incumbent Republican in history, though still topped by Tom Harkin overall. Ron DeSantis drops out after finishing a dismal third.

Half right. Firmly overestimated Haley; now it appears Trump is headed for a fifty-state sweep, though New Hampshire is notorious for giving failing candidates a chance to keep things interesting.

[Senator Incitatus]

You know, perhaps in retrospect, a Haley-DeSantis non-aggression pact and/or corrupt bargain where Haley didn't contest IA and DeSantis wouldn't contest NH would have actually worked out to hold Trump to reasonable margins.

Kasich and Rubio literally tried this in 2016, and it was as embarrassing then as it would be now.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

The turnout was dismal no matter how you try to spin it.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

The turnout was dismal no matter how you try to spin it.

I agree, more people should risk their lives going to do a thing that has a foregone conclusion just so that nerds on an internet forum can make predictions about an election that takes place in 10 months