Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

The turnout was dismal no matter how you try to spin it.

I agree, more people should risk their lives going to do a thing that has a foregone conclusion just so that nerds on an internet forum can make predictions about an election that takes place in 10 months

"Risk their lives" is a little melodramatic.

[bilaps]

51% of caucus goers were college educated? Am I seeing that correctly?

What would really concern me if I'm Haley is that Trump won independents and college graduates in Iowa. He won also Polk and Dallas counties, he was even stronger in the eastern part of the state. I thought Haley has a slim chance in NH, but after last night, there's no way imo she wins it.

[Minnesota Mike]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

The blizzard was well over by Monday. It was cold but nothing they have not seen in Iowa before.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

The blizzard was well over by Monday. It was cold but nothing they have not seen in Iowa before.

I believe this was by far the coldest Iowa caucus ever, though.

[Devils30]

I think it was an overrated night for Trump. Yes, he won Iowa by a ton but within the results he still has clear vulnerabilities. Look at Dallas County, went from Trump +9 in 2016 to Trump +2 in 2020 and he only got 39% here last night. This might point to further erosion with white college grads.

It won't matter in Iowa (he will win big in November) but similar trends in spots like Waukesha, Ozaukee, Cumberland, Ottawa, Kent counties in WI/PA/MI are absolutely something that could sink him.

[Minnesota Mike]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

The blizzard was well over by Monday. It was cold but nothing they have not seen in Iowa before.

I believe this was by far the coldest Iowa caucus ever, though.

Maybe but it was nothing Iowans don't face every winter. I live about 25 miles from the Iowa border and yesterday was nothing that would keep you from an indoor winter activity.

[President Johnson]

DeSandwich did better than I expected, though still a distrous showing for him. Trump has the nomination in the bag and that has been evident for months.

[bilaps]

People downplaying Trump's win are just coping at this point. Like, he won only 51% which means 49% are against him. He won Polk and Dallas but with small margin, smh. Ask yourself what percentage would Biden as an actual incumbent won last night in a really competitive democratic primary. Not Philips, Williamson and no names, like a real primary with popular incumbent governor of a big state like Florida. Do we know someone like that? Plus let's say one Sanders like challenger from the left.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

51% of caucus goers were college educated? Am I seeing that correctly?

What would really concern me if I'm Haley is that Trump won independents and college graduates in Iowa. He won also Polk and Dallas counties, he was even stronger in the eastern part of the state. I thought Haley has a slim chance in NH, but after last night, there's no way imo she wins it.

Yeah, he got a plurality of college graduates...37%. That's 30 points worse than with non-graduates. Pretty obvious he would've lost them in a one-on-one race. And Haley did win the advanced degree-holders.

[bilaps]

51% of caucus goers were college educated? Am I seeing that correctly?

What would really concern me if I'm Haley is that Trump won independents and college graduates in Iowa. He won also Polk and Dallas counties, he was even stronger in the eastern part of the state. I thought Haley has a slim chance in NH, but after last night, there's no way imo she wins it.

Yeah, he got a plurality of college graduates...37%. That's 30 points worse than with non-graduates. Pretty obvious he would've lost them in a one-on-one race. And Haley did win the advanced degree-holders.

Not pretty obvious though. And she came third, I mean, you can't spin that with some made up categories. Advanced degree holders, come on.

[ProudModerate2]

I think this starts a very sad day for America.
Out of everything we and the world now know (and actually experienced) about this Orange Moronic Un-parotitic Fool, one party actually votes strongly to make him their party's presidential candidate (again).
It's mind blowing!

I can maybe, possibly (barely) understand how some people were conned or mistaken in 2016 about this Creature, but no way in 2024 could there be any excuses for anyone to want him back in power.
Just so unbelievable. I'm beside myself.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

There was not a blizzard. It was cold. There's a difference.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

51% of caucus goers were college educated? Am I seeing that correctly?

What would really concern me if I'm Haley is that Trump won independents and college graduates in Iowa. He won also Polk and Dallas counties, he was even stronger in the eastern part of the state. I thought Haley has a slim chance in NH, but after last night, there's no way imo she wins it.

Yeah, he got a plurality of college graduates...37%. That's 30 points worse than with non-graduates. Pretty obvious he would've lost them in a one-on-one race. And Haley did win the advanced degree-holders.

Not to mention that 49% of Republicans voted against Trump, something I think that's missed. That doesn't mean that Haley or even DeSantis would've come that close head to head, but I think that's not discussed much.

[ProudModerate2]

Why are we trying to make pronouncements about what the turnout numbers mean? There was a blizzard yall, it's not that deep.

The turnout was dismal no matter how you try to spin it.

I agree, more people should risk their lives going to do a thing that has a foregone conclusion just so that nerds on an internet forum can make predictions about an election that takes place in 10 months

"Risk their lives" is a little melodramatic.

I think that description was used, due to the Orange Buffoon's recent comment before the caucus ...
Trump Makes Plea To 'Sick As A Dog' Voters In Iowa: 'Worth It' Even if You Die.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-sick-iowa-caucus_n_65a4ab37e4b0351062f25ae9

[wbrocks67]

I knew better than to listen to the CNN panel. Also, why do we have 3 Republicans on the panel (David Urban, Holmes, and Farrah-Grriffen) and just 1 Dem (Bedingifeld)? I honestly hate these hack panels and wish we'd get rid of *all* the partisans and just have actual analysts, but seems incredibly lopsided.

Because it's a f...ing republican primary

It's the same panel they have on constantly, whether it's a GOP primary or not.

[wbrocks67]

Caveats with the weather, turnout was still abysmal. Going from 186k to 110k in 2016 vs today is just awful no matter which way you slice it, especially given the insane amount of money spent in IA by everyone together.

Not just that, but Trump won yes, but given his alleged "strong" operation and cult leader status, the fact that only 55k people caucused for him in that state is... not that great.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

You know, perhaps in retrospect, a Haley-DeSantis non-aggression pact and/or corrupt bargain where Haley didn't contest IA and DeSantis wouldn't contest NH would have actually worked out to hold Trump to reasonable margins.

Kasich and Rubio literally tried this in 2016, and it was as embarrassing then as it would be now.

Sort of, but:

Rubio denied any quid pro quo with Kasich. “I have not talked with John Kasich,” he said.

And Kasich’s campaign, confident of its position, showed no interest in returning the favor.

"We were going to win in Ohio without his help, just as he's going to lose in Florida without ours,” said Kasich campaign spokesman Rob Nichols.

Post-Super Tuesday was also definitely too late for any agreement to have any impact. However you did remind me of this wonderful fanfiction period-piece about that very alliance, so thank you.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

I knew better than to listen to the CNN panel. Also, why do we have 3 Republicans on the panel (David Urban, Holmes, and Farrah-Grriffen) and just 1 Dem (Bedingifeld)? I honestly hate these hack panels and wish we'd get rid of *all* the partisans and just have actual analysts, but seems incredibly lopsided.

Speaking of analysts, I miss the ABC panels where Nate Silver would always get progressively more disheveled as the night progressed.

[oldtimer]

Caveats with the weather, turnout was still abysmal. Going from 186k to 110k in 2016 vs today is just awful no matter which way you slice it, especially given the insane amount of money spent in IA by everyone together.

Not just that, but Trump won yes, but given his alleged "strong" operation and cult leader status, the fact that only 55k people caucused for him in that state is... not that great.

I think it was poster 2016 who wrote that Trump ought to get around 55k, but he missed DeSantis by miles.

[oldtimer]

Iowa:

Trump 51%
Haley 21%
DeSantis 18%
Ramaswamy 8%
Hutchinson 1%
Binkley 1%

Did we decide that this was the winner prediction yet ?

[Woody]

Caveats with the weather, turnout was still abysmal. Going from 186k to 110k in 2016 vs today is just awful no matter which way you slice it, especially given the insane amount of money spent in IA by everyone together.

Not just that, but Trump won yes, but given his alleged "strong" operation and cult leader status, the fact that only 55k people caucused for him in that state is... not that great.

What kind of logic is that? Winning by +30 points is not great?

[Landslide Lyndon]

You know, perhaps in retrospect, a Haley-DeSantis non-aggression pact and/or corrupt bargain where Haley didn't contest IA and DeSantis wouldn't contest NH would have actually worked out to hold Trump to reasonable margins.

Kasich and Rubio literally tried this in 2016, and it was as embarrassing then as it would be now.

Sort of, but:

Rubio denied any quid pro quo with Kasich. “I have not talked with John Kasich,” he said.

And Kasich’s campaign, confident of its position, showed no interest in returning the favor.

"We were going to win in Ohio without his help, just as he's going to lose in Florida without ours,” said Kasich campaign spokesman Rob Nichols.

Post-Super Tuesday was also definitely too late for any agreement to have any impact. However you did remind me of this wonderful fanfiction period-piece about that very alliance, so thank you.

Kasich was too much of an asshole for this to work. I remember that while Rubio totally abandoned Ohio to allow Kasich to win, the latter continued to run ads in Florida despite not having the slightest chance.

[wbrocks67]

Exit poll has been updated:

Republicans (82%):
Trump 54%
DeSantis 24%
Haley 15%
Ramaswamy 7%

Independents (16%):
Trump 42%
Haley 34%
Ramaswamy 12%
DeSantis 8%

Exactly why Haley is doomed in only-GOP voter primaries. Though, you'd expect that she at least should've even won Independents here.

[DrScholl]

Caveats with the weather, turnout was still abysmal. Going from 186k to 110k in 2016 vs today is just awful no matter which way you slice it, especially given the insane amount of money spent in IA by everyone together.

Not just that, but Trump won yes, but given his alleged "strong" operation and cult leader status, the fact that only 55k people caucused for him in that state is... not that great.

What kind of logic is that? Winning by +30 points is not great?

+30 is paper tiger against multiple candidates. He won by 2% against a collective non-Trump vote. There was definitely a lack of enthusiasm in the caucus.

[bilaps]

Again, people are free to think that anything from these results and turnout could indicate Trump's weakness but at their own peril. I mean, I would understand if he lost Polk or Dallas counties or independents or college educated etc. But he didn't.

And again. Biden vs Newsom vs Sanders today. What's percentage Biden gets?