Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Fancyarcher]

It's crazy that this state voted Barack Obama by nearly double digits not too long ago.

Brain Drain is hell of a thing.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Dallas County is fully in

Trump 38%
Haley 27%
DeSantis 25%

DeSantis got a lot of suburban anti-Trump vote - more than I'd have guessed - at Haley's expense.

Polk is mostly in and it's a similar spread, DeSantis a hair above Haley there.

[Spectator]

I’d say RIP DeSantis, but he’s been DOA ever since Trump announced in November 2022.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Now it just went to 88% likely DeSantis takes 2nd, 12% Haley. Not sure what just changed in the reporting.

Was that one of the massive dumps Trump warned us about?

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's crazy that this state voted Barack Obama by nearly double digits not too long ago.

It's been an odd state for years.  It was Dukakis's best state in the nation in 1988, and then four years later it was the only state in the nation to swing towards Republicans.

It wasn’t his best state

Rhode Island was

I stand corrected; it was his second best state.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PROJECTION: OTHER WILL FINISH 7TH, CHRISTIE WILL FINISH 8TH

Donald J. Trump
43,681    +51.4%51.4%
16

Ron DeSantis
17,836    +21.0%21.0
4
Nikki Haley
16,028    +18.9%18.9
4
Vivek Ramaswamy
6,558    +7.7%7.7
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
622    +0.7%0.7
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
139    +0.2%0.2
No delegates—
Other
77    +0.1%0.1
No delegates—
Chris Christie
25    +0.0%<0.1
No delegates—

[Crumpets]

Some sort of glitch (I assume) just gave Haley 100% of the vote in four counties with a few dozen votes in each.

[NOVA Green]

Now it just went to 88% likely DeSantis takes 2nd, 12% Haley. Not sure what just changed in the reporting.

Do not follow the needle.

I've seen the needle and the damage done...  (Well not to myself but...)

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Some sort of glitch (I assume) just gave Haley 100% of the vote in four counties with a few dozen votes in each.

Is that what this is referring to? https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747098526796906522

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

NYT just put Haley at 100% in 4 counties that hadn't been reporting any votes yet. Proof of fraud???!!!1!!1!!?1??!

[JGibson]

Who is Blinkley, and why did he finish so far ahead of Asa

Vivek’s performance should mean his exit

Ryan Binkley is a businessman and a pastor at Create Church in Richardson, TX.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Binkley
https://binkley2024.com/

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Trump takes the lead in Story - looks like it will be a 99 county sweep. DeSantis was running pretty strong in the suburbs, not far behind Haley. He'll end up coming in 2nd for that reason and because Haley is way behind in the MAGA rurals.

[heatcharger]

TRUMP flips Story County, will complete a 99-county landslide in Iowa. Thank you Cyclones!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Well, the Eagles are hella disappointing.  Hey, let's check in on the Iowa caucus and be disappointed all over again. 

[Crumpets]

Jefferson County really taking its time. C'mon, show us the Maharishi Vedic City results!

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

It's pretty much done now. Trump finishes a hair over 50%, DeSantis and Haley at about 20% each, DeSantis slightly ahead of Haley. Kind of a bad night for everyone. Hope it doesn't take the wind out of Haley's sails too much in New Hampshire.

[NOVA Green]

Dallas County is fully in

Trump 38%
Haley 27%
DeSantis 25%

DeSantis got a lot of suburban anti-Trump vote - more than I'd have guessed - at Haley's expense.

Polk is mostly in and it's a similar spread, DeSantis a hair above Haley there.

Dallas County Whelp for Haley.

Really looking at it in both Polk & Dallas Trump is only floating around 38%, but yes these are absolutely places where both campaigns were both DeSantis and Haley were effectively dividing the "Non-Trump" PUB Caucus vote....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN PROJECTION: THE ORDER IS NOW ENTIRELY SET

TRUMP 1ST
DESANTIS 2ND
HALEY 3RD
VIVEK 4TH
BINKLEY 5TH
HUTCHINSON 6TH
OTHER 7TH
CHRISTIE 8TH

[South Dakota Democrat]

TRUMP flips Story County, will complete a 99-county landslide in Iowa. Thank you Cyclones!

Why do you always type Trump in all caps?

[Crumpets]

Looks like there's still a non-negligible chance of Haley flipping Johnson County, but that's really about it.

[emailking]

DeS getting 2nd. Guess he gets a ticket out of Iowa!

Selzer's predictions did not come through!

[South Dakota Democrat]

DeS getting 2nd. Guess he gets a ticket out of Iowa!

Selzer's predictions did not come through!

It's a poll, not a prediction.

[Eraserhead]

It's crazy that this state voted Barack Obama by nearly double digits not too long ago.

It's been an odd state for years.  It was Dukakis's best state in the nation in 1988, and then four years later it was the only state in the nation to swing towards Republicans.

There was a clear reason for that.

[NOVA Green]

Well, the Eagles are hella disappointing.  Hey, let's check in on the Iowa caucus and be disappointed all over again. 

Same boat Sister... Got my Igglies on the Tellie for background, while meanwhile checking in on IA.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

DeS getting 2nd. Guess he gets a ticket out of Iowa!

Selzer's predictions did not come through!

Selzer directly said that Haley would underperform the poll.