Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And here we go...

[Woody]

Trump gets closer to 60% than 50%.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Haley wins Independents and Democrats by Assad margins, but still loses by about 20

[Burke Bro]

Trump 43%
DeSantis 27%
Haley 20%
Ramaswamy 8%

[Pericles]

Hoping Ron DeSantis drops out in a few hours, that'll be a fun speech to watch.

[LabourJersey]

I have a feeling DeSantis will outpoll Haley, possibly by a lot.

Could be wildly wrong, though - the blizzard is a massive wildcard.

[Senator Incitatus]

Donald J. Trump receives the highest share of the recorded vote for any non-incumbent Republican in history, though still topped by Tom Harkin overall. Ron DeSantis drops out after finishing a dismal third.

[Horus]

My only prediction is DeSantis won't break 10%.

[Redban]

Trump lunatic allies suggest Haley is altering the weather for her benefit. That tells you that even they   think Haley will be closer to Trump than expected

https://imgur.com/FeNgyH5

[wbrocks67]

The actual caucus starts at 7pm est, right? What time are we actually expecting results?

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump finishes right around the 50% mark, while Haley is around 30%. DeSantis is around 10% and the other candidates divide the remaining 10%.

[wbrocks67]

I have a feeling DeSantis will outpoll Haley, possibly by a lot.

Could be wildly wrong, though - the blizzard is a massive wildcard.

The one thing DeSantis seems to have going for him is that he appears to have the strongest ground game in Iowa.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The actual caucus starts at 7pm est, right? What time are we actually expecting results?

They start at 7pm CST, which is 8pm EST.   Here's a past result that may serve as a guideline:

In the 2016 GOP caucuses, the AP first reported results at 8:32 p.m. ET, or 32 minutes after the caucuses convened. The caucus night tabulation ended at 12:50 a.m. ET with 99.9 percent of total votes counted.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-to-expect-in-the-2024-iowa-caucuses

[oldtimer]

I have a feeling DeSantis will outpoll Haley, possibly by a lot.

Could be wildly wrong, though - the blizzard is a massive wildcard.

Des Moines would temporarily be the 2nd coldest place on earth with a population over 100k during the caucus, Yakutsk in Siberia would retain it's no1.

[Mike88]

I think Iowa will be a slam dunk for Trump. The margin could still be closer than expected, however.

I'm much more curious about New Hampshire, but that's only next week.

[oldtimer]

I think Iowa will be a slam dunk for Trump. The margin could still be closer than expected, however.

I'm much more curious about New Hampshire, but that's only next week.

For some reasons the bettors are cashing out on Haley today, but it's typical to see large movements on a voting day.

https://electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Trump around 50, DeSantis outpolls Haley.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Trump lunatic allies suggest Haley is altering the weather for her benefit. That tells you that even they   think Haley will be closer to Trump than expected

https://imgur.com/FeNgyH5

I don't think the rantings of Loomer are representative of anything.

[Ferguson97]

Trump 45%
Haley 40%
DeSantis 10%
Vivek 5%

[Compuzled_One]

Trump 45%
Haley 40%
DeSantis 10%
Vivek 5%

I appreciate the optimism, but I don't see Haley pulling those numbers from Trump, DeSantis, and especially Vivek.

[Beet]

Trump 55
Haley 20
DeSantis 17
Ramaswamy 6

[Zenobiyl]

Trump gets under 50% & Haley comes in 2nd

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Trump comes in above 60%, probably around 63%. (I hope for, and objectively expect less, but Republicans always manage to disappoint, so I'm aiming for the worst outcome that seems plausible.)

Also, he will accuse DeSantis and others of trying to rig the caucus, but will stop short of claiming the caucus was actually rigged. (Only if he wins, of course. If he somehow loses, or even comes it with less than 50%, it will immediately become "rigged".)

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Trump benefits from the bad weather because his voters are on average are more enthusiastic and are willing to brave the cold for their lord emperor.

Trump 62%
Haley 21%
DeSantis 14%
Others 3%

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Prediction:

57% Trump
21% Haley
15% DeSantis
  5% Vivek
  2% Others/Uncommitted

If Vivek and others are not viable, their voters get redistributed to Trump/Haley/DeSantis, right?

In which case it's gonna be 60% Trump, 22% Haley, 17% DeSantis, and 1% who remain die-hard others/uncommitted.

I think some DeSantis/Vivek-voters will get cold feet during caucus proceedings and will join the Trump groups in the school gyms etc. - if they see their caucus groups are in danger of not being viable.