Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240208/k10014352721000.html

The "Group of United Conservatives" is formed which is dedicated to getting 高市 早苗(Takaichi Sanae) to be PM.    This is pretty much a new Right-wing faction within LDP.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/60ef328cfc8d9b1973e41aa3542044a5231d1387?source=sns&dv=sp&mid=other&date=20240211&ctg=dom&bt=tw_up

It seems that both Aso and Nikai are looking to strike at Kishida if the LDP does badly in the 3 Lower House by-elections in April.  Both are very angry at Kishida for his move to pressure them to abolish their factions without getting their support first.

[jaichind]

DPP's slogan is "Not Right. Not Left. Upward"


which seems a ripoff of the Simpsons Kang as Bill Clinton's slogan "We must go forward, not backward. Upward, not downward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom."

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA110CX0R10C24A2000000/

Growing consensus within LDP that Trump 2.0 will be back and that "Team Abe" bureaucrats should be brought back to deal with Trump starting next year.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval mostly stagnant at a low level

[Dr. Cynic]

DPP's slogan is "Not Right. Not Left. Upward"


which seems a ripoff of the Simpsons Kang as Bill Clinton's slogan "We must go forward, not backward. Upward, not downward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom."

Considering their increasingly rightward shift, that's pretty rich.

Although "Twirling Towards Freedom" would be a hell of a slogan for a future campaign.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240214/k00/00m/010/380000c

Now that DPP talks with LDP-KP have collapsed over gas taxes CDP-DPP talks will most likely start on cooperation.  It seems DPP wants to try to get JRP into these talks.  At this stage, I do not see the purpose of ARFE since DPP has already converged toward the ARFE position of working with JRP instead of LDP-KP.  Of course, ARFE is a Kinki faction of DPP, and they have pretty much partyized that faction.

[jaichind]

3 Lower House by-election April 28th

Tokyo 15th - LDP incumbent (with long-time experience in opposition ranks) had to step down due to a corruption scandal.  Neither LDP nor CDP has any real ready-made candidate ready to run.  JRP has a candidate that has some local roots.  The LDP might have several candidates run which will be good news for the JRP.

Nagasaki 3rd - This district is going to de facto merge into Nagasaki 2nd next election.   The current elderly LDP incumbent who was most likely going to get "retired" by the LDP next election had to resign due to the funding scandal.  The CDP is going to run the candidate they plan to run in the 2nd district in the next general election.  The LDP does not have anyone to run yet.

Shimane 1st - Long time LDP kingpin passed away.  It will be a LDP vs CDP vs JCP race in the by-election which will most likely be a preview of the general election.  The CDP candidate has deep roots here and could very well win.

Looks like LDP will run a candidate in both Tokyo 15th and  Nagasaki 3rd.  It seems the process is not easy, especially in Tokyo 15th, to find someone that is a high-quality candidate that is willing to run after the sitting LDP MP had to resign over corruption scandals.

[jaichind]

Findings of internal LDP survey on Abe and Nikai faction members over their involvement in the slush fund scandal

[jaichind]

Likely candidates in the 3 lower house by-elections

[jaichind]

The latest Mainichi poll (approval/disapproval 14/82)is very bad for LDP/Kishida and pushes the Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve downward again


CDP support is now the same LDP with JRP not far behind
https://twitter.com/miraisyakai/status/1759154336763134138

For now, this is still and outlier

[jaichind]

The same Mainichi poll asked about the next PM.  Only 1% supported Kishida as the next PM

Former minister 上川 陽子(Kamikawa Yōko) aligned with the former Kishida faction at 12% seems to be the person getting the support of former Kishida supporters.

[jaichind]

JX PR poll has CDP close to LDP as CDP and JCP gains from both LDP and JRP

LDP        20.3  (-4.5)
KP           5.2  (+0.4)
DIY          0.9  (-0.3)
PNHK       0.1   (--)
JRP        13.6  (-1.6)
ARFE       0.2   (-0.2)
DPP         2.3  (-0.6)
CDP       20.0  (+3.5)
RS          3.8  (+0.7)
SDP        1.2  (+0.1)
JCP         9.1  (+2.8 )

They should also start to poll CPJ which I suspect is about half of a third of the 3.0 that is "other'

[jaichind]

PR poll  average




Center-Left parties (CDP RS JCP) gain from the rest of the field

PR vote average (change from 3 weeks ago)
LDP     25.0 (-1.9)
KP        5.1 (+0.1)
DIY       1.6 (-0.5)
PNHK    0.3 (-0.1)
JRP      12.9 (-0.1)
ARFE     0.7 (-0.5)      (new Kinki-based pro-JRP DPP splinter)
DPP      3.3 (-0.4)
CDP    13.8 (+1.7)
RS        5.4 (+0.8 )
SDP      0.8 (----)
JCP       5.7 (+0.7)

[jaichind]

Asahi PR poll also has LDP dropping a bunch and CDP surging
https://twitter.com/miraisyakai/status/1759702553171050947

[Dr. Cynic]

It's happening!

[jaichind]

It's happening!

Do not get your hopes up.  There have been previous CDP surges before only to recede once LDP problems fade into the background.   Overall I sense that a majority of Japanese voters are looking for an excuse to vote LDP.  During periods of LDP turmoil and scandal, they will shy away.  But eventually, most of them do come back.  The big tent faction system in LDP makes it easier to discard those involved in scandals and for new leadership to dissociate themselves from the scandal as time goes on.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/aa3b0934d32c76812a262260b534766ebbba16e6

The end of the Abe faction is making it easier for hard right 高市 早苗(Takaichi Sanae) to gather members for her "Japan Power" study group (aka faction).  The fall of the Abe faction seems to give her the chance to be the leader of the LDP hard right.

[Dr. Cynic]

It's happening!

Do not get your hopes up.  There have been previous CDP surges before only to recede once LDP problems fade into the background.   Overall I sense that a majority of Japanese voters are looking for an excuse to vote LDP.  During periods of LDP turmoil and scandal, they will shy away.  But eventually, most of them do come back.  The big tent faction system in LDP makes it easier to discard those involved in scandals and for new leadership to dissociate themselves from the scandal as time goes on.

Yeah, I know.

[jaichind]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240222/k10014367521000.html

Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi suggested that Diet members can decide whether to pay taxes for the kickbacks they underreported in expense reports.   LDP trying to walk this back.

[jaichind]

It seems CPJ will run a candidate in the Tokyo 15th by-election.  Their candidate will run an anti-PRC platform.  I wonder how much of the LDP vote they will cut into.
https://twitter.com/yukanfuji_hodo/status/1760967747281051705

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve still heading downward

[jaichind]

Updated PR vote average




LDP continues to lose ground

PR vote average (change from 1 week ago)
LDP     23.3 (-1.7)
KP        6.0 (+0.9)
DIY       1.0 (-0.6)
PNHK    0.4 (+0.1)
JRP      12.8 (-0.1)
ARFE     1.0 (+0.3)      (new Kinki-based pro-JRP DPP splinter)
DPP      4.2 (+0.9)
CDP    13.8 (----)
RS        5.0 (-0.4)
SDP      1.0 (+0.2)
JCP       4.9 (-0.8 )

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240225-OYT1T50080/

The situation for the LDP in Tokyo's 15th by-election is bad enough in terms of brand that there is now talk of the LDP backing a Koike support TPFA candidate to run instead.

[jaichind]

Nikkei PR poll 2023 July vs 2024 Feb

2023 July


2024 Feb


2024 Feb with change from 2023 July

LDP    26 (-7)
KP        7 (+3)
DIY      1 (-1)
PNHK   1 (+1)
JRP    11 (-5)
DPP     5 (+2)
CDP   12 (+3)
RS       5 (--)
SDP     1 (+1)
JCP      3 (-2)

CDP and DPP gain ground while LDP and JRP lose ground.  Less KP PR voters are now "hiding out" as LDP PR voters given the hit on the LDP brand.  Note that some of the LDP and JRP losses are toward undecided which represents an upside for both parties.