Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

Average party support (not PR) by bloc (ruling: LDP-KP, Center-Left opposition: CDP-RS-SDP-JCP, Center-Right opposition JRP-DPP-ARFE).  The center-left opposition has been gaining ground recently

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240314-OYT1T50277/

Many in the LDP seem to think all those hearings about the funding scandal ended up having various Abe faction leaders making statements that seem false or cop-outs which in turn hurt rather than helped the overall LDP image.

[jaichind]

Open seat 熊本(Kumamoto) governor election two weeks from now on 3/24

LDP-KP is backing the current lieutenant governor as their candidate.  The opposition will likely de facto back the pro-opposition candidate from the last two elections.   The opposition candidate used to be a LDP MLA in the prefecture assembly but has moved over to the opposition camp.   I think the third time run for this opposition candidate has a shot at winning this time given his name recognition. 

Latest polls still show a close race but the LDP-KP candidate ahead

[jaichind]

https://www.daily-tohoku.news/archives/220471

Rengo seems to be warming up to having a better relationship with JRP and perhaps promote some seat adjustments between CDP and JRP despite JRP's skepitism

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval stabilizing a bit

[jaichind]

The latest JX PR vote poll still has LDP and CDP at a virtual tie (Change from Feb)

JCP and DPP gains from both LDP and CDP

LDP           19.1 (-1.2)
KP              4.8 (-0.4)
DIY             0.9 (--)
PNHK          0.0 (-0.1)
JRP           13.2 (-0.4)
ARFE          0.2 (--)
DPP            3.2 (+0.9)
CDP          18.9 (-1.1)
RS              4.4 (+0.6)
SDP            0.4 (-0.8 )
JCP           10.7 (+1.6)

[jaichind]

In Shimane 1st by-election the JCP candidate withdraws to back CDP.  So it will be LDP vs CDP vs CPJ

In Tokyo 15th by-election is still JRP vs JCP vs DIY vs CPJ.  LDP and CDP could still come in.  LDP, if it comes in, will most likely be a pro-LDP Ind.

In Nagasaki 3rd by-election it will be CDP vs JRP with LDP, it seems, choosing not to contest.

[jaichind]

Latest PR averages




JCP and RS gaining from LDP

PR vote average (change from 4 weeks ago)
LDP     22.6 (-0.7)
KP        5.7 (-0.3)
DIY       1.3 (+0.3)
PNHK    0.2 (-0.2)
JRP      12.8 (---)
ARFE     0.6 (-0.4)      (new Kinki-based pro-JRP DPP splinter)
DPP      4.1 (-0.1)
CDP    14.1 (+0.3)
RS        5.6 (+0.6)
SDP      0.6 (-0.4)
JCP       5.9 (+1.0)

[jaichind]

Open seat 熊本(Kumamoto) governor election two weeks from now on 3/24

LDP-KP is backing the current lieutenant governor as their candidate.  The opposition will likely de facto back the pro-opposition candidate from the last two elections.   The opposition candidate used to be a LDP MLA in the prefecture assembly but has moved over to the opposition camp.   I think the third time run for this opposition candidate has a shot at winning this time given his name recognition. 

More polling shows narrow lead for LDP-KP candidate ahead of the election this weekend

[jaichind]

Asahi poll this last weekend

What do you expect after the next general election?

LDP-KP continues in power      38%
Change in government            46%

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240317/k00/00m/010/121000c

Shigeru wants to change the rules for the LDP Prez race to weight more LDP party member votes vis-a-vis the MP vote.  Clearly, this is to up the odds of the Shigeru-Kono-Koizumi Jr alliance.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240318/k00/00m/010/297000c

Kishida will look into punishments for those 82 MPs in the Abe and Nikai factions who were involved in the funding scandal.  It does not sound like any of them will be expelled from the LDP although some will be de-selected in the next election.

[Octowakandi]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240317/k00/00m/010/121000c

Shigeru wants to change the rules for the LDP Prez race to weight more LDP party member votes vis-a-vis the MP vote.  Clearly, this is to up the odds of the Shigeru-Kono-Koizumi Jr alliance.

Oh these guys are allied? Is it to make Kono PM?

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240317/k00/00m/010/121000c

Shigeru wants to change the rules for the LDP Prez race to weight more LDP party member votes vis-a-vis the MP vote.  Clearly, this is to up the odds of the Shigeru-Kono-Koizumi Jr alliance.

Oh these guys are allied? Is it to make Kono PM?

Yeah, these 3 are allies and were allies back in the 2021 LDP Prez race.   It is not clear which one of the 3 will run this time.  In theory, Koizumi Jr is still too young and Shigeru might prefer to be the man behind the throne but it is possible Kono has burned too many bridges from his 2021 run.    Those 3 will have to work out  by Sept which one of the 3 will be the face of this alliance.

[jaichind]

After a fairly large wage increase negotiated earlier this year between Rengo and industrial groups (4%-5%) BOJ finally ends negative interest rates and yield curve targeting.  But BOJ still came out with a fairly dovish stance which meant JPY fell on the news.

BOJ is in a bind.  If they truly raise interest rates to what is logical then all the fixed-income assets it and other banking sector owns will fall significantly in mark-to-market terms which would make BOJ a SVB times 100.

It seems it will be a long road ahead for Japan to get out of the legacy of the ill-conceived negative interest rate and  QE it indulged in the last couple of decades.

[jaichind]

Former disgraced LDP MP of Tokyo 15h 秋元司(Akimoto Tsukasa) jumps into the by-election race as an independent. Of course, the whole purpose of the by-election was because the sitting LDP MP had to resign in disgrace.

[xelas81]

Former disgraced LDP MP of Tokyo 15h 秋元司(Akimoto Tsukasa) jumps into the by-election race as an independent. Of course, the whole purpose of the by-election was because the sitting LDP MP had to resign in disgrace.

with links to moonies LOL
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%A7%8B%E5%85%83%E5%8F%B8#%E7%B5%B1%E4%B8%80%E6%95%99%E4%BC%9A%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AE%E9%96%A2%E4%BF%82

[jaichind]

Former disgraced LDP MP of Tokyo 15h 秋元司(Akimoto Tsukasa) jumps into the by-election race as an independent. Of course, the whole purpose of the by-election was because the sitting LDP MP had to resign in disgrace.

with links to moonies LOL
https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%A7%8B%E5%85%83%E5%8F%B8#%E7%B5%B1%E4%B8%80%E6%95%99%E4%BC%9A%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AE%E9%96%A2%E4%BF%82

He was sentenced to 4 years in prison in 2021 for a bribery case linked to government casino projects.  He says he is running to "normalize" this scandal-ridden district.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240320-Z7VIGQC7VBIZBF5XSU5RCOWW3U/

In Shimane 1st it seems it will be a tough fight for the LDP in this traditionally safe LDP seat.  This will be a big test for Motegi, leader of the de facto Motegi faction (now "study group") who is in charge of getting the LDP the win.  If the LDP loses that will be a further blow for Motegi's chances of being the new LDP leader.

[jaichind]

History of Asahi PR polls in 2019 2021 2022 elections and possible 2024 election

[jaichind]

 熊本(Kumamoto) governor election results (fairly significant LDP-KP victory)

LDP-KP                       54.6
Center-Left Opposition 41.0

[jaichind]

For Tokyo 15th by-election there is now talk that the wife of the disgraced LDP MP 柿沢未途(Kakizawa Mito) who had to step down provoking the by-election will run as an independent with LDP support.  She used to be a MLA in the Tokyo Prefecture assembly.  It just seems more and more that the JRP candidate will win the by-election, especially if CDP does not back a candidate.

[jaichind]

Nikai faction leader 二階 俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) will retire and will not run in the next Lower House election.

[jaichind]

Latest PR averages




Some more KP PR voters who were hiding out as LDP PR voters who switched back to KP now seem to have flipped back to LDP.  CDP and other Center-Left parties gain from JRP and JCP.

PR vote average (change from 1 week ago)
LDP     23.9 (+1.3)
KP        4.4 (-1.3)
DIY       1.3 (----)
PNHK    0.0 (-0.2)
JRP      12.4 (-0.4)
ARFE     1.2 (+0.6)     
DPP      4.1 (----)
CDP    15.7 (+1.6)
RS        5.8 (+0.2)
SDP      0.9 (+0.3)
JCP       5.4 (-0.5)

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d3a5ea5d5fcc1511ab0a19f85d2c5d30a10b3ad4

TPFA officially backs 乙武洋匡  (Ototake Hiromasa) for the already crowed Tokyo 15th by-election and most likely will get de facto LDP-KP support.

The candidates will be

JRP
TPFA (de facto LDP-KP support)
JCP
DIY
Former LDP MP running as Ind.
CPJ

It is possible CDP will also run a candidate.  JRP will most likely still have the edge but if CDP runs a candidate the race might favor TPFA