Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

For the Kyodo mayor election, It seems that down the stretch the JRP-backed candidate 村山祥栄(Murayama Shoei) who is the leader of a pro-JRP local party called Kyodo Party has imploded.  He won 20.3% of the vote in the 2020 Kyodo mayor election.  In theory, this should benefit the LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus candidate but polls still show a tight race.   It seems part of this is that the CDP vote, some of which were going to vote for the pro-JRP candidate, despite what the party leadership wants, might be shifting over to the pro-JCP candidate. 

Back in 2020, it was

LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-SDP anti-JCP consensus        45.1% (incumbent)
JCP-RS                                                          34.6%
Kyodo Party (de facto JRP support)                  20.3%

The main wildcard this year is that the anti-JCP consensus candidate is not an incumbent, there are at couple of LDP rebel/conservative minor candidates in the fray, and if the pro-JRP Kyodo party candidate implodes where does his vote go ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who is most weakened if anti JCP consensus candidate loses? Who benefits overall (besides the JCP)?

[jaichind]

Who is most weakened if anti JCP consensus candidate loses? Who benefits overall (besides the JCP)?

I think the local CDP loses the most.  If the JCP candidate wins then it is mostly because of the CDP vote going over to the JCP.  The local CDP is very anti-JCP so their credibility will be shot in such a scenario.

[jaichind]

2023 Kyodo city assembly election vote share if you only look at district sizes of 6 MLA or above (to give you a more PR-like result) by bloc

LDP+         25.05%
KP             13.24%
Third Pole   24.06% (JRP and Kyodo Party)
Center Left 17.01% (CDP DPP RS and other Center-Left minor parties)
JCP            20.38%

JCP can only get to above 35% of the vote (the sort of vote share JCP needs to win at least to have a chance of winning the mayor election) by getting votes from other blocs

[jaichind]

Kyodo mayor exit polls have LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus candidate and JCP-RS-JCP in a dead tie with the  JRP and LDP rebel well behind.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll has the pro-JCP candidate ahead.  I still think this will not be the result given the shy LDP voter effect given recent scandals.  But if this is the result I was right that the JCP candidate has to cross 35% to have a chance to win.  The exit poll seems to have him at 36%-37%.

[jaichind]

In the mayoral election of 前橋市(Maebashi) in LDP heartland 群馬(Gunma) the united opposition defeats the pro-LDP incumbent in a blowout as per exit polls.  This is very unusual for a pro-LDP incumbent to lose a mayor or governor election to a pro-opposition candidate (as opposed to another pro-LDP or pro-JRP candidate), especially by a wide margin.

[jaichind]

NHK says their pre-election poll has the  LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus candidate with a consistent and stable lead but their exit poll has the JCP-RS-SDP candidate ahead.

[jaichind]

Similar results from MBS exit poll for Kyodo mayor election

[Logical]

Could be voters punishing the LDP for the funding scandals.

[jaichind]

It seems the early vote leans LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus candidate but the election day vote leans JCP-RS-SDP (by it seems more than 5%).  So it is really about how big of a lead the LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus built up in the early vote.  This seems to show there was a late break for the JCP-RS-SDP candidate.

[jaichind]

Could be voters punishing the LDP for the funding scandals.

Or shy LDP voters not wanting to admit they voted LDP but did so anyway.

[jaichind]

The early vote seems to be 13% of VAP and the election day vote seems to be 28% of VAP.  If you take NHK data

Early vote
LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus      44
JCP-RS-SDP                                                    32

Election day vote
LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus      35
JCP-RS-SDP                                                    37

You get
LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus      37.9
JCP-RS-SDP                                                    35.7

or narrow LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus victory
https://twitter.com/japgijastis/status/1754101914189595062

[jaichind]

MBS breakdown of the makeup of the vote of all 4 candidates (LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus, JCP-RS-SDP, JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party, LDP rebel).  Clear signs of defection from LDP JRP CDP and even KP voters.

[jaichind]

KBS exit poll

JCP-RS-SDP                                                    37
LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus      33
RP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party                       15
LDP rebel                                                       14
Minor Conservative                                           1

At this stage the issue becomes how much of these exit polls are election day exit poll versus a mix of election day and early voters.

[jaichind]

The JCP lost the 1989 and 2008 Kyodo mayor elections by very narrow margins (both by less than 1000 votes).  2024 could be a repeat.

[jaichind]

Asahi's exit poll which it claims to take into account early voting has it neck to neck

[jaichind]

KBS exit poll broken out by age.  JCP-RS-SDP is strongest with older voters but also with voters in their 30s.  JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party is strongest with middle-aged voters which matches the profile of JRP support.  LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus is strongest with older voters but also the youngest voters.

[jaichind]

NHK breakout by party support.  Other than JCP and KP, large-scale vote splitting by all other parties.  JCP-RS-SDP has an edge with independents which shows it did grab a good part of the Center-Left vote. 

[jaichind]

KBS says their polling does not show much a difference between early voting and election day voting

Early vote


Election day vote

[jaichind]

Changes in NHK Kyodo mayor election party ID from 2020 to 2024

LDP   37 -> 22
KP      5  ->  4
JRP     4  -> 12
DPP    2  ->  2
CDP    6 ->   6
RS      3 ->   2
JCP    12 -> 11

Mostly about LDP support shift to JRP.

[jaichind]

In the mayoral election of 前橋市(Maebashi) in LDP heartland 群馬(Gunma) the united opposition defeats the pro-LDP incumbent in a blowout as per exit polls.  This is very unusual for a pro-LDP incumbent to lose a mayor or governor election to a pro-opposition candidate (as opposed to another pro-LDP or pro-JRP candidate), especially by a wide margin.

With 80% of the vote counted it is

United Opposition    58.1
LDP-KP                   41.9

which matches exit poll of a blowout United Opposition victory.

[jaichind]

Abe mother passes away at age 95.  She is both the mother and daughter of a PM.  Her husband would most likely have been PM or DPM sometime in the 1990s had he not passed away unexpectedly in 1991.  Of course, if he had not passed away so early and made the way for Shinzo Abe to enter politics Shinzo Abe would have not had the seniority to become PM himself.

[jaichind]

Kyodo mayor count (7% of the vote in)

LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus      29.9
JCP-RS-SDP                                                    29.9
RP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party                       20.9
LDP rebel                                                       19.4

[jaichind]

NHK election day exit poll breakout by gender and age

Clear gender gap with JCP-RS-SDP edge with women.