Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In Tokyo, what initially seemed like a cakewalk at the start of the year is shaping up to be a real race.

Governess Koike Yuriko is seeking a third-term in the post - those challenging her include former DP leader Renho, Akitakata Mayor Ishimaru Shinji, and now far-right former Chief of Staff of the Japanese Air Self-Defence Force Tamogami Toshio. With the LDP endorsing her for the first time, the opposition smells blood.

“Governess”? Is she teaching them to read?

[Duke of York]

Final results
CDP/DPP 47.4%
LDP           42.4%
JCP           7.0%
IND            1.6%
IND             1.0%
IND             0.6%

Another blow for Kishida. While not immediately fatal, it was the slow drip drip of election losses that lead to Suga's ouster.

He's almost certainly gone in September when the LDP meet to elect a new leader, especially when there are potential candidates testing the waters.

I've said before just how much I admire his dogged determination to cling to the office, but he's running out of options. He could try and gamble on a snap election, but really, he should've called one months ago when he was riding high and the CDP was flailing around. Now Izumi is presenting himself as a credible Prime Minister and the LDP hasn't had good news in ages.

I doubt LDP is losing a general election.

[Dr. Cynic]

Final results
CDP/DPP 47.4%
LDP           42.4%
JCP           7.0%
IND            1.6%
IND             1.0%
IND             0.6%

Another blow for Kishida. While not immediately fatal, it was the slow drip drip of election losses that lead to Suga's ouster.

He's almost certainly gone in September when the LDP meet to elect a new leader, especially when there are potential candidates testing the waters.

I've said before just how much I admire his dogged determination to cling to the office, but he's running out of options. He could try and gamble on a snap election, but really, he should've called one months ago when he was riding high and the CDP was flailing around. Now Izumi is presenting himself as a credible Prime Minister and the LDP hasn't had good news in ages.

I doubt LDP is losing a general election.

The LDP didn't lose the 1993 election either, but they did lose 52 seats and lost power (albeit briefly) because the opposition formed an unwieldly coalition. The current projection is for them to lose around 60 seats, which would present a similar opportunity. It would remain to be seen if the opposition parties could make hay while the sun shines.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve heading downward with latest NHK poll

[jaichind]

Koike will run for re-election for Tokyo governor.  It seems LDP will give outside support.

This sets up a Koike vs Renho battle on who is the top women politician in Japan.  Koike should have the edge but has to figure out how to get the LDP vote without being associated with the LDP enough for the anti-LDP backlash to hit her.

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll shows the Kishida cabinet approval especially bad in the 40-80 age group.  Approval with LDP-KP voters seems to be in the low 50s.

[jaichind]

The Okinawa prefecture election is this Sunday

Back in 2020 it was
             
                 Seats     Vote share
LDP+            19           36.50%
KP                 2             6.04%
JRP                2             3.93%
Center-Left   18            41.64%
JCP                7            11.89%

The anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance has had a majority since 2008.  This time KP will contest 4 seats which could push the anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance majority mark despite the unpopularity of the national LDP mark since Okinawa is trending LDP at the local level.  I expect at 24-24 split between Center-Left-JCP alliance and everyone else (LDP+ KP JRP).  Note that KP and JRP are mostly neutral on the base issue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Okinawa prefecture election is this Sunday

Back in 2020 it was
             
                 Seats     Vote share
LDP+            19           36.50%
KP                 2             6.04%
JRP                2             3.93%
Center-Left   18            41.64%
JCP                7            11.89%

The anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance has had a majority since 2008.  This time KP will contest 4 seats which could push the anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance majority mark despite the unpopularity of the national LDP mark since Okinawa is trending LDP at the local level.  I expect at 24-24 split between Center-Left-JCP alliance and everyone else (LDP+ KP JRP).  Note that KP and JRP are mostly neutral on the base issue.

I was shocked to see just how high the Komeito PR vote was. More than 1 in 5 Okinawa voters...
How do these people vote on prefectural level?

[jaichind]

The Okinawa prefecture election is this Sunday

Back in 2020 it was
             
                 Seats     Vote share
LDP+            19           36.50%
KP                 2             6.04%
JRP                2             3.93%
Center-Left   18            41.64%
JCP                7            11.89%

The anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance has had a majority since 2008.  This time KP will contest 4 seats which could push the anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance majority mark despite the unpopularity of the national LDP mark since Okinawa is trending LDP at the local level.  I expect at 24-24 split between Center-Left-JCP alliance and everyone else (LDP+ KP JRP).  Note that KP and JRP are mostly neutral on the base issue.

I was shocked to see just how high the Komeito PR vote was. More than 1 in 5 Okinawa voters...
How do these people vote on prefectural level?

This is part of the trend of KP becoming a more Southern rural party.  In the past KP was more of an urban lower middle class party.  It is now becoming more of a rural party.

I was very confused when KP only ran 2 candidates in the Okinawa prefecture elections in 2020 when in 2016 and before they ran and won 4 seats.  This time they are going back to 4 seats again.  In 2020 they must have had internal polling showing they might not win all 4 seats so they moved their candidate count to 2.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Okinawa prefecture election is this Sunday

Back in 2020 it was
             
                 Seats     Vote share
LDP+            19           36.50%
KP                 2             6.04%
JRP                2             3.93%
Center-Left   18            41.64%
JCP                7            11.89%

The anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance has had a majority since 2008.  This time KP will contest 4 seats which could push the anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance majority mark despite the unpopularity of the national LDP mark since Okinawa is trending LDP at the local level.  I expect at 24-24 split between Center-Left-JCP alliance and everyone else (LDP+ KP JRP).  Note that KP and JRP are mostly neutral on the base issue.

I was shocked to see just how high the Komeito PR vote was. More than 1 in 5 Okinawa voters...
How do these people vote on prefectural level?

This is part of the trend of KP becoming a more Southern rural party.  In the past KP was more of an urban lower middle class party.  It is now becoming more of a rural party.

I was very confused when KP only ran 2 candidates in the Okinawa prefecture elections in 2020 when in 2016 and before they ran and won 4 seats.  This time they are going back to 4 seats again.  In 2020 they must have had internal polling showing they might not win all 4 seats so they moved their candidate count to 2.

Hmm.
Their long-term growth in the South suggests them running 4 might become more likely in the future.

[jaichind]

The vote for Tokyo governor will also involve a bunch of by-elections for the Tokyo prefecture assembly.  These by-elections will determine if LDP or TPFA emerge as the largest party in the prefecture assembly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The vote for Tokyo governor will also involve a bunch of by-elections for the Tokyo prefecture assembly.  These by-elections will determine if LDP or TPFA emerge as the largest party in the prefecture assembly.

How do you think these elections will go?

[jaichind]

The vote for Tokyo governor will also involve a bunch of by-elections for the Tokyo prefecture assembly.  These by-elections will determine if LDP or TPFA emerge as the largest party in the prefecture assembly.

How do you think these elections will go?

Assuming the KP base comes out for the LDP I think the by-elections will be a wash with LDP retaining the largest party status even if the LDP brand is taking a beating.

[jaichind]

The Okinawa prefecture election is this Sunday

Back in 2020 it was
             
                 Seats     Vote share
LDP+            19           36.50%
KP                 2             6.04%
JRP                2             3.93%
Center-Left   18            41.64%
JCP                7            11.89%

The anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance has had a majority since 2008.  This time KP will contest 4 seats which could push the anti-base Center-Left-JCP alliance majority mark despite the unpopularity of the national LDP mark since Okinawa is trending LDP at the local level.  I expect at 24-24 split between Center-Left-JCP alliance and everyone else (LDP+ KP JRP).  Note that KP and JRP are mostly neutral on the base issue.

My prediction for Okinawa prefecture elections

LDP+          19
KP               4
JRP              1
Center-Left  17
JCP              7

The anti-base bloc of Center-Left-JCP pushed to 24-24 against MLAs outside the anti-base bloc.  KP and JRP are really neutral on the base issue. So one cannot all the remaining MLAs pro-base.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/75a7b4627bac7f49f23b86adbe67890add374908

The first time a LDP MP, in this case from the tossup seat of 新潟(Niigata) 3rd district, called for Kishida to step down.

[jaichind]

The count for the Okinawa prefecture elections not going so well for the anti-base bloc.  It seems they are likely to lose their majority, unlike my guess of a 24-24 tie.

[jaichind]

Okinawa prefecture elections

LDP+ at 22 seats overtakes the anti-base bloc of Center-Left-JCP at 20.  JCP fell from 7 to 4 seats.
The trend toward LDP in Okinawa has overcome the decline of LDP support nationally.

LDP+          22        39.92%
KP                4          6.94%
JRP               2         3.39%
Center-Left  16        40.25%
JCP               4         9.03%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The count for the Okinawa prefecture elections not going so well for the anti-base bloc.  It seems they are likely to lose their majority, unlike my guess of a 24-24 tie.

Where are they underperforming relative to your guess?

[jaichind]

The count for the Okinawa prefecture elections not going so well for the anti-base bloc.  It seems they are likely to lose their majority, unlike my guess of a 24-24 tie.

Where are they underperforming relative to your guess?

Mostly LDP gains in rural areas.  In urban areas, the Center-Left-JCP vote mostly held up and losses are mostly about KP running more candidates and JCP losing support.  In rural areas, it seems anti-incumbency against over a decade of anti-LDP governors led to a fairly large swing in favor of LDP.  The prefecture government raised water prices recently and most likely that sunk support for the Center-Left-JCP.  Also overall the anti-base issue is losing salience, at least in rural areas, where economic distress is a greater issue. 

I knew all this but still figured it would merely cancel out the drop in LDP support.  It seems like that was not the case.

[jaichind]

No real change in the Kishida approval/disapproval curve.  Fits the narrative that in Japan once the cabinet approval falls below 30% for some period it will never emerge from below 30% again.

[jaichind]

Latest PR averages

A clear shift away from the Center-Right parties to Center-Left parties.  CDP well ahead of JRP as the main alterative to LDP.




Change from 7 weeks ago

LDP     24.0 (-2.4)
KP        5.1 (-0.1)
DIY       1.4(---)
PNHK    0.7 (-0.2)
JRP      10.6 (-0.7)
ARFE     0.5 (-0.3)    
DPP      3.5  (+0.6)
CDP    18.1 (+1.7)
RS        4.7 (+0.3)
SDP      1.0 (+0.3)
JCP       5.5 (+0.4)

[jaichind]

In the Tokyo Governor race Koike has picked up LDP KP DPP and Rengo support.  Clearly having LDP on her side will cost Koike some votes but getting Rengo's support is a big coup.   Koike seems to be in pole position to win re-election, with a smaller margin of course. 

 I wonder what Renho's plans are after a likely loss in the election.  Run in the upcoming Lower House race?