Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

Feb 4th Kyodo mayor election (open field) - chaotic battle

LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo (anti-JCP consensus candidate)
JCP
JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party
LDP rebel

There is a reasonable chance the pro-JCP candidate could win now due to the 3-way split of the anti-JCP vote.

If I had to guess now I would say the result is

JCP                                               27
LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo                 25
JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party     24
LDP rebel                                      18
minor (lean Conservative)                6

I suspect as the election gets closer the LDP rebel and minor conservative vote share will fall and either the LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo or JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party will overtake the JCP candidate in the end.  But this will be close.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240123-FCJZU3R3ANKRJBL5WPRLA6QMSY/

The small Moriyama faction will dissolve and become a "policy group".  It seems the two remaining faction will most likely take the compromise and become a "policy group"

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/98673c25144546707524ec88b04787338eee5cc6

LDP General Secretary Motegi, and the leader of the Motegi faction, is considering expelling several senior Abe faction leaders to try to resolve the crisis and appease the public.   To do this he will need to convince LDP Party Ethics Committee to act.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240124-OYT1T50227/

Yomiuri reports that LDP leadership has urged senior Abe faction members to quit the party themselves and/or resign as MP to take responsibility for the scandal.

[jaichind]

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240125/k10014334601000.html

New Abe faction scandal.  Former Mie Governor and Abe faction LDP MP seems to be involved with kickbacks from a construction company in his district.

[jaichind]

It seems at this stage all the senior Abe faction leaders refuse to resign as MP or leave the LDP.

[Logical]

There will be a by-election for Nagasaki 3rd district however after the LDP incumbent who lied to investigators regarding the funding scandal resigned his seat.

[jaichind]

It seems several key MPs are leaving the Motegi faction.   Namely 青木一彦(Aoki Kazuhiko), 橋本岳, (Hashimoto Gaku), and 小渕優子(Obuchi Yūko) which are both from powerful political families.   The Motegi faction is the old Tanaka faction which dominated LDP politics from the 1970s to the late 1990s.  They had hoped with Abe being gone their turn to be at the top would come again.  Instead, the faction might be falling apart.

[Octowakandi]

It seems several key MPs are leaving the Motegi faction.   Namely 青木一彦(Aoki Kazuhiko), 橋本岳, (Hashimoto Gaku), and 小渕優子(Obuchi Yūko) which are both from powerful political families.   The Motegi faction is the old Tanaka faction which dominated LDP politics from the 1970s to the late 1990s.  They had hoped with Abe being gone their turn to be at the top would come again.  Instead, the faction might be falling apart.

Why is it falling apart?

[jaichind]

It seems several key MPs are leaving the Motegi faction.   Namely 青木一彦(Aoki Kazuhiko), 橋本岳, (Hashimoto Gaku), and 小渕優子(Obuchi Yūko) which are both from powerful political families.   The Motegi faction is the old Tanaka faction which dominated LDP politics from the 1970s to the late 1990s.  They had hoped with Abe being gone their turn to be at the top would come again.  Instead, the faction might be falling apart.

Why is it falling apart?

Key people in the faction (led by people who are leaving) were always not happy with Motegi and are now taking advantage of Motegi  refusing to turn the faction into a "study group" to leave the faction.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Given how close Nagasaki's 3rd was in 2021, it would not be surprising if the opposition gained the seat.

[jaichind]

https://nordot.app/1123234289839161965?c=39550187727945729

Looks like Aso faction has backed down and will become a "policy group"

[jaichind]

https://nordot.app/1123234289839161965?c=39550187727945729

Looks like the Aso faction has backed down and will become a "policy group"

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6489702

It seems Aso clarified.  The Aso faction is not going away.  It is just renaming itself as a "policy group"  It seems the other factions will disband and reform as a policy group.  There does seem to be a difference between the two approaches.

In the meantime, only the  Motegi faction, which is splintering, refuses to disband or rename itself as a "policy group."

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve stagnating at a fairly low level.  This is what is driving all these activities within the LDP in terms of faction reform as well as pushing key Abe faction members out of the party or to resign as MP.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll for Kyodo mayor election has

LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus candidate slightly ahead of JCP-RS-JCP with JRP and LDP rebel further behind.

[jaichind]

Other polls for the Kyodo mayor election also has

LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo anti-JCP consensus candidate slightly ahead of JCP-RS-JCP with JRP and LDP rebel further behind.

[jaichind]

Latest PR vote average curve




LDP and JRP lose ground to everyone else especially JCP

PR vote average (change from 2 weeks ago)
LDP     26.9 (-1.3)
KP        5.0 (+0.3)
DIY       2.1 (+0.4)
PNHK    0.4 (+0.3)
JRP      13.0 (-1.2)
ARFE     1.2 (+1.2)      (new Kinki-based pro-JRP DPP splinter)
DPP      3.7 (+0.2)
CDP    12.1 (+0.5)
RS        4.7 (+0.1)
SDP      0.8 (+0.1)
JCP       5.0 (+0.9)

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b4409552b2581563597e90f345c4b1785e0ba677

 Motegi faction will now follow Aso faction and rename itself a "policy group"

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASS1V6K0NS1VUTFK00D.html

Asahi says Kishida has only two choices: Snap election in June 2024 or indicate that he will not run for re-election as LDP Prez in Sept 2024 and maybe his successor goes for an early Lower House election after the LDP Prez election.  It seems Kishida does not want a double election (Lower and Upper house elections at once which took place in 1980 and 1986) next year.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20240130-KMXUGYNJNVLM3DC3YUMUE5YTHY/

Key people in the Kishida faction say that the members of the faction will "take some time off" before regrouping as a "policy group" so the public does not seem any continuity between the old faction and the new "policy group".  Of course, he is just saying the quite part out lout and it will not work anyway because people will see the members of the old faction and the new "policy" group are the same people.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20240201-OYT1T50203/

The Abe faction met for the last time yesterday.  There are no signs its senior leaders will take any action to take responsibility for the funding scandal.  Unlike the other factions, the Abe faction will not reform as a "policy group" but will completely disband with its members most likely forming other disparate "policy groups" or joining other "policy groups."  The Abe faction can trace its lineage to the Kishi faction led by former PM Kishi who is also Abe's grandfather.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1753500626900705540?s=20


Kyoto City Mayoral Election Komeito Survey (2/1)
Fukuyama 32.4 (JCP)
Matsui 31.1 (LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo)
Murayama 8.1 (JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party)
Ninoyu 8 (LDP rebel)

let me know if I got the parties wrong. If the JCP wins will they possibly jump up in polling? I remember you saying that there's a lot of stigma around them but if they get elected in a major city (even if it's due to this splitting) then I'd have to assume that stigma is weakened, yes?

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1753500626900705540?s=20


Kyoto City Mayoral Election Komeito Survey (2/1)
Fukuyama 32.4 (JCP)
Matsui 31.1 (LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo)
Murayama 8.1 (JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party)
Ninoyu 8 (LDP rebel)

let me know if I got the parties wrong. If the JCP wins will they possibly jump up in polling? I remember you saying that there's a lot of stigma around them but if they get elected in a major city (even if it's due to this splitting) then I'd have to assume that stigma is weakened, yes?

This is correct.  Note that KP polls tend to underestimate the candidates that KP supports so these numbers seems to suggest the LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo establishment anti-JCP consensus candidate  should be narrowly ahead.

[Logical]

Komeito releases polls showing them behind all the time to motivate soft LDP and swing right wing voters to vote for their candidate. JCP has a chance to win but they need the anti JCP vote to split perfectly for that to happen.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/Nihonpolitics/status/1753500626900705540?s=20


Kyoto City Mayoral Election Komeito Survey (2/1)
Fukuyama 32.4 (JCP)
Matsui 31.1 (LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo)
Murayama 8.1 (JRP-ARFE-Local DPP-Kyodo Party)
Ninoyu 8 (LDP rebel)

let me know if I got the parties wrong. If the JCP wins will they possibly jump up in polling? I remember you saying that there's a lot of stigma around them but if they get elected in a major city (even if it's due to this splitting) then I'd have to assume that stigma is weakened, yes?

This is correct.  Note that KP polls tend to underestimate the candidates that KP supports so these numbers seems to suggest the LDP-KP-CDP-DPP-Rengo establishment anti-JCP consensus candidate  should be narrowly ahead.

Do you think there's a possibility they're moreso super-underestimating the JRP-ARFE-Kyodo-LocalDPP candidate to try and say "there's only 1 non-JCP choice who can win"? The two seemed neck and neck previously.