NY-03 Special Election Megathread

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1757617077815259607

Im sorry what? How does this prove Democrats are deeply unpopular?

[Vosem]

It was maybe not very clever for the GOP to run on how bad Biden is on securing the border and Israel aid when anyone who remotely follows the news -- which is going to be everybody in a random low-turnout special -- knows that it's actually the House Republicans holding up bills which at least try to address both issues. Suozzi was also able to position himself credibly (actually, for a Democrat he has a stunningly good record on both issues going back many years) and the post-scandal backlash could not have helped.

It's a shame because Pilip would've been a very good congresswoman (and an even better talking point), but so it goes. It is always refreshing to observe a race between two very high-quality candidates, which this was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Philip would keep the current Trump tax cuts in 25 as they are, we are trying to get the Filibuster proof Trifecta to repeal the tax cuts Biden says 400 K but it should be 200 K raise taxes on

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1757617077815259607

Im sorry what? How does this prove Democrats are deeply unpopular?

It’s a joke

[oldtimer]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1757777444654739629

[oldtimer]

It was maybe not very clever for the GOP to run on how bad Biden is on securing the border and Israel aid when anyone who remotely follows the news -- which is going to be everybody in a random low-turnout special -- knows that it's actually the House Republicans holding up bills which at least try to address both issues. Suozzi was also able to position himself credibly (actually, for a Democrat he has a stunningly good record on both issues going back many years) and the post-scandal backlash could not have helped.

It's a shame because Pilip would've been a very good congresswoman (and an even better talking point), but so it goes. It is always refreshing to observe a race between two very high-quality candidates, which this was.

"Pilip would've been a very good congresswoman"

Don't gamble on any race or sport.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

I don't think the snowstorm had that big an impact on turnout. This special had 50,000 more voters than the NY-19 special in 2022, for example.

[oldtimer]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

I don't think the snowstorm had that big an impact on turnout. This special had 50,000 more voters than the NY-19 special in 2022, for example.

I think it factored a bit, probably enough to erase any discrepancies.

I said Suozzi wins by 10 and this is how I came up with 10:

Polls say by 4 + 5 for the snowstorm = 9 and I round it 10.

[GAinDC]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

I don't think the snowstorm had that big an impact on turnout. This special had 50,000 more voters than the NY-19 special in 2022, for example.

I think it factored a bit, probably enough to erase any discrepancies.

I said Suozzi wins by 10 and this is how I came up with 10:

Polls say by 4 + 5 for the snowstorm = 9 and I round it 10.

This is an impressive cope. You've got made up data and everything!

[oldtimer]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

I don't think the snowstorm had that big an impact on turnout. This special had 50,000 more voters than the NY-19 special in 2022, for example.

I think it factored a bit, probably enough to erase any discrepancies.

I said Suozzi wins by 10 and this is how I came up with 10:

Polls say by 4 + 5 for the snowstorm = 9 and I round it 10.

This is an impressive cope. You've got made up data and everything!

Polls aren't made up data.

[Ferguson97]

Final prediction:

Suozzi - 54%
Pippi - 46%

Boom, baby

[DrScholl]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

I don't think the snowstorm had that big an impact on turnout. This special had 50,000 more voters than the NY-19 special in 2022, for example.

I think it factored a bit, probably enough to erase any discrepancies.

I said Suozzi wins by 10 and this is how I came up with 10:

Polls say by 4 + 5 for the snowstorm = 9 and I round it 10.

This is an impressive cope. You've got made up data and everything!

Polls aren't made up data.

You literally made up numbers by factoring in the snowstorm.

[Lief 🗽]

I had read that pro-Hamas supporters tried to interrupt things last night but I didn’t realize Suozzi’s thugs literally threw them off the stage lol
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1757609125918232868?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yYJk03...

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

I don't think the snowstorm had that big an impact on turnout. This special had 50,000 more voters than the NY-19 special in 2022, for example.

I think it factored a bit, probably enough to erase any discrepancies.

I said Suozzi wins by 10 and this is how I came up with 10:

Polls say by 4 + 5 for the snowstorm = 9 and I round it 10.

Doing some back-of-the-napkin math here, assuming that Pilip won 2 out of 3 e-day voters - to shrink the margin to 4 points would require about 21,000 people who would have otherwise definitely voted, to not have voted due to a storm that had cleared up by 2pm. That doesn't seem likely to me.

[Yoda]

A pro-choice African American woman who says Trump isn't above the law lost and some Democrats are going to take this as evidence they don't have to dump Biden to win. Oh, and it's no surprise Muslim and South Asian voters aren't big fans of an IDF soldier. Congrats to Tom Suozzi but this means little outside the scope of this race.

Dumping Biden at this point in the race would be the most unfathomably stupid thing Democrats could do.

[Smash255]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

None of the pollsters factored the snowstorm.

I don't think the snowstorm had that big an impact on turnout. This special had 50,000 more voters than the NY-19 special in 2022, for example.

I think it factored a bit, probably enough to erase any discrepancies.

I said Suozzi wins by 10 and this is how I came up with 10:

Polls say by 4 + 5 for the snowstorm = 9 and I round it 10.

Doing some back-of-the-napkin math here, assuming that Pilip won 2 out of 3 e-day voters - to shrink the margin to 4 points would require about 21,000 people who would have otherwise definitely voted, to not have voted due to a storm that had cleared up by 2pm.

Snowstorm had minimal impact on turnout.  Might have pushed turnout later in the day (I typically vote in the morning and voted around 6PM), but had little impact.

Snow ended between 1-2  PM, with the heaviest of it ending between 11-12   Temperatures were in the mid 30's when it ended and ground was fairly warm after being in the mid to upper 50's on Saturday so cleaning off the streets were easy.  Even side streets were basically pure blacktop by mid to late afternoon.

[Spectator]

A pro-choice African American woman who says Trump isn't above the law lost and some Democrats are going to take this as evidence they don't have to dump Biden to win. Oh, and it's no surprise Muslim and South Asian voters aren't big fans of an IDF soldier. Congrats to Tom Suozzi but this means little outside the scope of this race.

Harris is the alternative and I think most Democrats are well aware that she would do worse than even a weak Biden.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1757617077815259607

Almost losing? What are they smoking?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The above reads to me like satire, although it's increasingly difficult to tell these days.

[Sestak]

5 point snowstorm lmao

[DaleCooper]

Election results tell us nothing about future elections unless they point towards positive signs for Republicans, then they're very informative. This is well known.

[GAinDC]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1757617077815259607

Hate to say it but that’s sort of how the average, not Atlas person sees this race.

They don’t know how much Biden won the district by in 2020 or that Suozzi outperformed polling. They just know that the last person who held this seat was a complete joke of a Republican, and yet the race to succeed him was competitive. So they see this win as underwhelming for Dems, which makes it easy to wrap into the “dems in disarray” narrative.

It’s unfair, but I think Biden should use these lowered expectations to his advantage.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Well well well

https://twitter.com/jsweetli/status/1757843599100641658?s=46

[GAinDC]

Well well well

https://twitter.com/jsweetli/status/1757843599100641658?s=46

Republicans can't build a brand around white identity politics and then get upset when their voters don't like the token POC candidates they run. You can't have it both ways.