NY-03 Special Election Megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well well well

https://twitter.com/jsweetli/status/1757843599100641658?s=46

Republicans can't build a brand around white identity politics and then get upset when their voters don't like the token POC candidates they run. You can't have it both ways.

So, I guess Tim Scott's stock as Trump's running mate has plummeted.

[Brittain33]

Well well well

https://twitter.com/jsweetli/status/1757843599100641658?s=46

Republicans can't build a brand around white identity politics and then get upset when their voters don't like the token POC candidates they run. You can't have it both ways.

So, I guess Tim Scott's stock as Trump's running mate has plummeted.

It’s depressing as hell but you know Trump is planning to name Sen. Scott Secretary of HUD if he’s elected.

[DaleCooper]

Well well well

https://twitter.com/jsweetli/status/1757843599100641658?s=46

Republicans can't build a brand around white identity politics and then get upset when their voters don't like the token POC candidates they run. You can't have it both ways.

They need it to go both ways. The same people who have been lecturing us about the new colorblind Republican Party with a raceless big tent coalition for the past two years have immediately turned around to say that the main or only reason Republicans under-performed here is because Republicans are too racist to vote for black candidates.

[wbrocks67]

As we know, good news is always actually bad news for Dems!

https://twitter.com/Athenas_Son_V/status/1757778887470403706?s=20

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

As we know, good news is always actually bad news for Dems!

https://twitter.com/Athenas_Son_V/status/1757778887470403706?s=20

Politico and CNN '5 takeaways' articles were also 'this is actually bad for the Democrats who are in disarray.'

OK, that's a little hyperbolic, but they did both start with something like 'Democrats needed to win this Republican held seat in order to show they weren't falling further behind.'

For the media it's clearly a case of 'when the narrative replaces actual facts and evidence, stick with the narrative.'

For instance, the CNN article only mentioned that Suozzi, who they described as something like a 'very well known politician in Nassau County', lost to Kathy Hochul in the Democratic Primary for governor, but leave out that Suozzi received only 13% of the vote. And while they mention that he lost after two terms as Nassau County Executive, they leave out that he also lost four years later in the rematch by a 59-41% margin.

To be sure, Suozzi was elected to the House of Representatives after that for 3 terms, but CNN and these other outlets clearly seem to be trying to overstate Suozzi's popularity on Long Island and in the district to promote this narrative.

While I obviously don't live in the district, I think it would be far more accurate to say that Suozzi being well known was a mixed blessing for him, though to be sure probably a slight boost.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Hate to say it but that’s sort of how the average, not Atlas person sees this race.

They don’t know how much Biden won the district by in 2020 or that Suozzi outperformed polling. They just know that the last person who held this seat was a complete joke of a Republican, and yet the race to succeed him was competitive. So they see this win as underwhelming for Dems, which makes it easy to wrap into the “dems in disarray” narrative.

It’s unfair, but I think Biden should use these lowered expectations to his advantage.

I think the average voter will see this as Democrats reducing the already slim Republican majority in the House.

In New York state, I don't know, but I think they might see it as some seemingly washed up former politician who ran a distant third for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2022 getting back into Congress.

[Yoda]

Well well well

https://twitter.com/jsweetli/status/1757843599100641658?s=46

Republicans can't build a brand around white identity politics and then get upset when their voters don't like the token POC candidates they run. You can't have it both ways.

Thing is, they absolutely do believe that a token POC candidate will fix everything for them. That's why trump is going to pick Tim Scott for his VP.

[NOVA Green]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

[Tekken_Guy]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Pilip was indeed running on both the Republican and Conservative Party lines.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Pilip was indeed running on both the Republican and Conservative Party lines.

Why was there no Working Families Party candidate in this race?

[NOVA Green]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Aah... forgot about that random NY quirk.

[TML]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Pilip was indeed running on both the Republican and Conservative Party lines.

Why was there no Working Families Party candidate in this race?

Suozzi declined to seek their endorsement for this election (although he did do so for his past congressional campaigns).

[NOVA Green]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Pilip was indeed running on both the Republican and Conservative Party lines.

Why was there no Working Families Party candidate in this race?

Suozzi declined to seek their endorsement for this election (although he did do so for his past congressional campaigns).

Didn't want to look like too much of a Leftie?

Sounds strange considering considering on labor issues he appears to be a solid, at least judging how many times he mentioned "Labor" in his victory speech.

[ralstonfan65]

I had read that pro-Hamas supporters tried to interrupt things last night but I didn’t realize Suozzi’s thugs literally threw them off the stage lol
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1757609125918232868?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yYJk03...

Beautiful! Though I wish they had done much more to that fifth column scum

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Pilip was indeed running on both the Republican and Conservative Party lines.

Why was there no Working Families Party candidate in this race?

Suozzi declined to seek their endorsement for this election (although he did do so for his past congressional campaigns).

Didn't want to look like too much of a Leftie?

Sounds strange considering considering on labor issues he appears to be a solid, at least judging how many times he mentioned "Labor" in his victory speech.

I don't think anybody should mistake especially private sector labor unions as being 'lefties.'

[NOVA Green]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Pilip was indeed running on both the Republican and Conservative Party lines.

Why was there no Working Families Party candidate in this race?

Suozzi declined to seek their endorsement for this election (although he did do so for his past congressional campaigns).

Didn't want to look like too much of a Leftie?

Sounds strange considering considering on labor issues he appears to be a solid, at least judging how many times he mentioned "Labor" in his victory speech.

I don't think anybody should mistake especially private sector labor unions as being 'lefties.'

Point... look at his Union Endorsement page...

Looks like he is def hitting the Union Card from a wide range of industries and sectors.

https://suozziforcongress2024.com/endorsements/

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Pilip was indeed running on both the Republican and Conservative Party lines.

Why was there no Working Families Party candidate in this race?

Suozzi declined to seek their endorsement for this election (although he did do so for his past congressional campaigns).

Didn't want to look like too much of a Leftie?

Sounds strange considering considering on labor issues he appears to be a solid, at least judging how many times he mentioned "Labor" in his victory speech.

I don't think anybody should mistake especially private sector labor unions as being 'lefties.'

Point... look at his Union Endorsement page...

Looks like he is def hitting the Union Card from a wide range of industries and sectors.

https://suozziforcongress2024.com/endorsements/

I'm surprised that of public sector workers unions that the state teachers union endorsed him but that the firefighters local didn't.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1757821036916097302

[NOVA Green]

There's something off about the Nassau County BOE election results page:

https://www.nassaucountyny.gov/571/Election-Results

Looks like they lumped the 8,170 votes for the Constitutional Party candidate and added it to Pilips numbers.

Am I missing something here?

Candidates typically running on multiple lines in New York.

Pilip was indeed running on both the Republican and Conservative Party lines.

Why was there no Working Families Party candidate in this race?

Suozzi declined to seek their endorsement for this election (although he did do so for his past congressional campaigns).

Didn't want to look like too much of a Leftie?

Sounds strange considering considering on labor issues he appears to be a solid, at least judging how many times he mentioned "Labor" in his victory speech.

I don't think anybody should mistake especially private sector labor unions as being 'lefties.'

Point... look at his Union Endorsement page...

Looks like he is def hitting the Union Card from a wide range of industries and sectors.

https://suozziforcongress2024.com/endorsements/

I'm surprised that of public sector workers unions that the state teachers union endorsed him but that the firefighters local didn't.

Nassau County Firefighters already eyeballing jobs down in Florida...

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/557065-nassau-firefighter-union-prez-leads-money-race-for-fernandina-beach-commission-seat/

Sure the Italian-American and Irish-American Firefighters might be from historical DEM ethnic European backgrounds, but a lot of them are looking at the COLA in Metro NYC and thinking maybe can retire with a bit more house in FL after selling an overpriced smaller joint in Long Isle.

Naturally that opens up career opportunities for a newer generation, which perhaps might be less representative of the current tight-knit Firefighter scene....

[Steve from Lambeth]

https://www.twitter.com/acyn/status/1757626729709920441

Dana Bash says several voters told her that they voted for Suozzi because Republicans tanked the bipartisan border security deal

Congratulations to Senator-elect Suozzi

[wbrocks67]

The pundits have basically had some form of 'this is bad for Joe Biden' in many ways:

- Suozzi "ran away" from Biden (this is not factually true and also a sitting president not campaigning for someone in a swing district during their term is pretty typical given they're the party in power)
- Suozzi "ran as a Republican on the border" (not true either, he criticized both Dems and Reps on the border, but mostly ran on the GOP failing to pass the border bill, which would be a repudiation of... Republicans, not Democrats)
- Suozzo "only ran on Immigration and not abortion" / "Abortion was not a central theme in the race" (not true either, Suozzi/Ds ran tons of anti-Pilip ads on abortion, spending $5-10M on the subject alone)

There's also the idea among Nate Cohn and others that the race has "no indications" for November, which I highly disagree with. The biggest one being that again, Suozzi literally ran on the GOP's flop on the border bill. That is *literally* something Biden pointed out and would absolutely run on this year. Suozzi succeeded in it, so how is that not even a minor indication for November for Biden? To say the race has absolutely zero indication for November is just awful analysis *and* punditry.

[wbrocks67]

Pundits: Dems didn't make abortion an issue. It wasn't a central issue to this campaign

Voters:

https://twitter.com/cjwarnke/status/1757874484399202751

[Sir Mohamed]

The mainstream media really embrasses itsself with these "analysis" lately. I wouldn't bother of that wasn't a major reason Biden might end up losing the election coming November. I would actually love to see their heads exploded when he wins a comfortable reelection while the pundits declared him DOA.

[DaleCooper]

The mainstream media really embrasses itsself with these "analysis" lately. I wouldn't bother of that wasn't a major reason Biden might end up losing the election coming November. I would actually love to see their heads exploded when he wins a comfortable reelection while the pundits declared him DOA.

Thankfully the mainstream media becomes less and less relevant every minute, now. They're a dying industry and they know it.