NY-03 Special Election Megathread

[oldtimer]

What did the polls suggest this would be?

Suozzi by 3-4 was the final polling average.

Never going to happen for a variety of reasons, but they should have changed their voting weights once the snowstorm was forecasted.

[Yoda]

What did the polls suggest this would be?

I think the last three were +1, +4, +4 Suozzi, but the narrative the media pretty much invented based wholly on republican vibes was that there was some silent undercurrent of republican voters (since when have these people ever been silent lol) very angry over the migration crisis that were going to turn out and carry the republican over the line. Turns out more indies and dems were mad about republicans playing games with the border bill they asked for. Go figure.

[oldtimer]

Whatever conclusions that are positive for Democrats that can be drawn, all those narratives will all be moot the next time, probably tomorrow, we get a poll with Trump leading somewhere.

No matter what, Democrats have yet again been victorious in an election, more so than polling suggests. And no matter what you can blame to excuse it (candidate quality, the weather, turnout, etc.) the point stands that the Republican Party is more often than not being out-organized and failing to get its voters out. Not only that, but they're handing Democrats opportunities to counter the rhetoric they keep wanting to force by doing stupid s*** like overturning Roe V. Wade and refusing the most conservative border bill they could possibly ever get.

Anyway, at least we're going to be able to watch TV again without constant Pilip-Suozzi ads. Well, until November. Though surely Suozzi is the favorite in the next incarnation of NY-3.

Before and after the special election:

"Pilip ? Who's Pilip ? I deny any knowledge of a Pilip."

She dissappears back on to the street that the GOP picked her from.

[oldtimer]

What did the polls suggest this would be?

I think the last three were +1, +4, +4 Suozzi, but the narrative the media pretty much invented based wholly on republican vibes was that there was some silent undercurrent of republican voters (since when have these people ever been silent lol) very angry over the migration crisis that were going to turn out and carry the republican over the line. Turns out more indies and dems were mad about republicans playing games with the border bill they asked for. Go figure.

Everyone's here final observation once the snowstorm was forecasted, was basically polls +5 Suozzi.

And that handicap for the GOP was correct.

Before the opinion polls I thought that Suozzi was going to win by at least 18.

Pollsters didn't do that bad, they just need to weigh their special election voters a bit better.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The last minute dooming about a GOP surge that ultimately was based on no solid evidence is an exact repeat of the 2022 election where it got so bad people were saying Fetterman was certain to loose and the Warnock was essentially DOA and O’Dea stood a chance of beating Bennett.

I was literally feeling gaslit by Election Day

[Progressive Pessimist]

The last minute dooming about a GOP surge that ultimately was based on no solid evidence is an exact repeat of the 2022 election where it got so bad people were saying Fetterman was certain to loose and the Warnock was essentially DOA and O’Dea stood a chance of beating Bennett.

I was literally feeling gaslit by Election Day

The 2023 Kentucky and Virginia elections as well. It's so frustrating it almost caused an enlightenment, especially after 2022, it's why my whole "pessimist" persona when it comes to elections is being called into question so much.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, that was a solid night. My prediction wasn't that far off.

That said, I don't see much implications at all for November. The results may indicate 2024 in NY will be more like 2020 than 2022, but it's just one district with lower turnout. I think NYS as a whole will somewhat trend R this year regardless of the national outcome, though it won't be a repeat of Hochul vs. Zeldin. More like Schumer 2022 is Biden's floor.

What the results do show is that Suozzi's campaign message of getting results done while the House GOP is in dissarray may work in many sububan districts. Biden not only needs to take on Trump, his campaign should also go after the GOP's dysfunction and show the contrast to the previous congress in which Pelosi successfully governed with a slim majority. So a bit out of Truman's playbook.

[Yoda]

The last minute dooming about a GOP surge that ultimately was based on no solid evidence is an exact repeat of the 2022 election where it got so bad people were saying Fetterman was certain to loose and the Warnock was essentially DOA and O’Dea stood a chance of beating Bennett.

I was literally feeling gaslit by Election Day

In the interest of doomer accuracy, I remember almost everyone on here, including most democrats, predicting Dr. Oz was going to beat Fetterman way back at the beginning of the cycle. I remember thinking it was so odd that everyone was so bullish on his chances, as I thought he would end up coming off as an out-of-touch elitist while Fetterman would connect with his fellow midwestern dudes who wear shorts in freezing weather. The mirage of a GOP surge definitely happened in those other races, but in that particular race the dooming was present from very early on.

[Kamala's side hoe]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1757229876531036435

Related point, although I do wonder if there are any meaningful differences between CA-47's AAPI electorate and NY-03's AAPI electorate that would contribute to the former being somewhat more D. AFAIK the Non-Hispanic White voters in both districts are known for being relatively R.
https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1757623528034271590

One interesting thing is in Queens, Mazi is actually matching or outrunning Trumps margin in most precincts but turnout as a whole seems to favor Dems there hence making the margin bluer than 2020.

Electoral example of Simpson's paradox?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

R+0-1

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

This sums up my feelings pretty well:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1757741873651667038

polling is clearly still broken, and the narratives that they're spawning (israel/hamas is hurting dems, dems are slipping with PoC etc) are not bearing out in actual elections.

it seems pretty clear to me that a) dems are motivated, and b) there's a big persuasion gap over 2020

[Beet]

A pro-choice African American woman who says Trump isn't above the law lost and some Democrats are going to take this as evidence they don't have to dump Biden to win. Oh, and it's no surprise Muslim and South Asian voters aren't big fans of an IDF soldier. Congrats to Tom Suozzi but this means little outside the scope of this race.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

A pro-choice African American woman who says Trump isn't above the law lost and some Democrats are going to take this as evidence they don't have to dump Biden to win. Oh, and it's no surprise Muslim and South Asian voters aren't big fans of an IDF soldier. Congrats to Tom Suozzi but this means little outside the scope of this race.

Imagine thinking that being Pro Palestinian would help the republican in LONG ISLAND. Come on man!

[SnowLabrador]

This sums up my feelings pretty well:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1757741873651667038

polling is clearly still broken, and the narratives that they're spawning (israel/hamas is hurting dems, dems are slipping with PoC etc) are not bearing out in actual elections.

it seems pretty clear to me that a) dems are motivated, and b) there's a big persuasion gap over 2020

Voters are blaming Biden for Israel-Hamas, not downballot Democrats. At this point I think even Tester would win before Biden.

[Landslide Lyndon]

DC pundits: Here is why yesterday's election confirms the preconceived notions of me and my buddies from the Capitol Hill cocktail parties.

[Mr. Matt]

Inb4 the right-wing conspiracy theorists start saying Pilip was a Democratic plant.

Well she literally is a Democrat

[President Johnson]

Looks like my 53-46% prediction was pretty close to the end result.

I don't think there are too much implication for November though, as the turnout was just median and the election only for one district. Suozzi should easily keep the seat in November nonetheless and Democrats regain some ground in other races in New York, which is key to winning back the House. I wonder whether there will be so much ticket splitting in November. I don't see it. Trump isn't Zeldin either.

[Roll Roons]

The last minute dooming about a GOP surge that ultimately was based on no solid evidence is an exact repeat of the 2022 election where it got so bad people were saying Fetterman was certain to loose and the Warnock was essentially DOA and O’Dea stood a chance of beating Bennett.

I was literally feeling gaslit by Election Day

Now you know how I felt ahead of election night 2020 when everyone was insisting Fitzpatrick, Wagner, Hill, Van Taylor and Rodney Davis were all in serious trouble.

[Crumpets]

One thought on why polling might have been off here: wasn't greater NYC one of the places with the most issues with the last census? Even if you conduct a poll well, if your weighting is based on bad numbers, it's going to be hard to make up for it.

[GAinDC]

The last minute dooming about a GOP surge that ultimately was based on no solid evidence is an exact repeat of the 2022 election where it got so bad people were saying Fetterman was certain to loose and the Warnock was essentially DOA and O’Dea stood a chance of beating Bennett.

I was literally feeling gaslit by Election Day

Now you know how I felt ahead of election night 2020 when everyone was insisting Fitzpatrick, Wagner, Hill, Van Taylor and Rodney Davis were all in serious trouble.

The difference is that in 2022, there was a mountain of GOP aligned polls that pointed falsely to a red wave. That also tipped the election models and fueled the media narrative.

In 2020, I recall some chatter on social media and leaks from 'unpublished polls' that showed many suburban Republicans in trouble, but that was about it.

These days, there truly is a massive, coordinated disinformation campaign that is meant to give Republicans momentum heading into election season, and the mainstream media is still buying it.

I mean, Dems just won this seat by as much as Biden did in 2020, and we're supposed to believe Trump will gain massive ground in New York State this year?? If that was going to happen, NY-03 would be the epicenter, and last night's election results don't show that at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This should stop people from believing Trump is gonna win it's a district that Rs won

[GeorgiaModerate]

For those who were wondering where Dave was last night:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1757749707084873816

[wbrocks67]

Siena was off equally among areas it looks like.

Nassau: Suozzi +1 (Siena) vs Suozzi +6 (actual)
Queens: Suozzi +17 (Siena) vs Suozzi +24 (actual)

A +8 result is not too far off from a +4 poll but it given how close the race is, if polls are 4% off, that makes a huge difference. Specials are hard to model, but the polling average was off by a full 5% which is notable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This puts the R nut maps to shame, I want 53 Seats in the US Senate, even Rassy has Biden at 38 Approvals now, no way he is at 45 like he had originally , today's standards a 303 map is 45 not 50 percentage pts Approval, but maps are blank and we can have wave insurance in the Fall

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1757617077815259607