NY-03 Special Election Megathread

[All Along The Watchtower]

Owned.

[NOVA Green]

Palestine genocide protesters storm onto the stage at Suozzi's victory party. Cringe.

For many of these people it is their only opportunity this year to participate in a victory party. Let them have it.

Yelling "you support genocide" at a man who literally isn't even an elected official right now is truly ... something

I hate to defend these protestors on anything but Suozzi did run explicitly on being pro-Israel.

This is probably one of the 5 most Jewish districts in the country.

Not quite sure about that, but yet not a total doubter...

Had seen on various NYT prior reports estimated ~20% Jewish, which one might likely assume would be a significant higher % of voters in a special election, especially considering the average age of the Jewish voter here is quite a bit higher than the RV's.

https://www.jta.org/2020/09/10/united-states/this-map-shows-the-20-congressional-districts-with-the-most-jews

[Florida Man for Crime]

Owned.

Qwned.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1757617419760103653

Meh....

Nassau County PUB machine: "The Snowstorm lost us the election"...

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

A bunch of pro-Hamas protesters disrupting Suozzi's victory speech.

Yelling "you support genocide" at a man who literally isn't even an elected official right now is truly ... something

I swear this is the dumbest generation of protesters of all time…

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

To add a fine point, once again: all of the major publications and pundits made SUCH a big deal over the last week(s) about how the race was a tossup, neck and neck, immigration had "dominated" it, etc. only to once again have eggs on their faces.

They continue to literally just make up their own narratives at this point, and funny how it's constantly "dems in disarray"

I predicted Suozzi + 10 and I also think Trump is currently beating Biden by quite a bit. It was clear for a while this would be an easy election for Suozzi, lol

[Oryxslayer]

Seemingly the final votes from Nassau come in and this night ends at 53.9% D - 46.1% R. But the count isn't over, even though this will be like 95% of all votes.  

With the late-arriving postmarked mail votes that will come in over the next week, the margin will likely be pushed back above or very close to Biden's 2020 result. But nobody will pay attention, like before in NY-19, when the final certified results are slightly more Dem.

[NOVA Green]

While everyone tries to read the bird entrails of what this might mean for all sorts of other NY CD's potentially up for grabs in '24 from this particular election....

It is patently clear that these numbers are not at all good for PUBS when it comes to arguably a state which might well determine the control of the US House in '24.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

While everyone tries to read the bird entrails of what this might mean for all sorts of other NY CD's potentially up for grabs in '24 from this particular election....

It is patently clear that these numbers are not at all good for PUBS when it comes to arguably a state which might well determine the control of the US House in '24.

It's a special election for a seat where the former R was scandal plagued. Historically this hurts the scandal plagued politician's party by at least 5%, usually around 10%.


It is bad for R's in the sense that Suozzi will likely win in November, but it was clear D's would win back this seat ever since February 2023 when Santos's skeletons started coming out of the closet

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://www.twitter.com/acyn/status/1757626729709920441

Dana Bash says several voters told her that they voted for Suozzi because Republicans tanked the bipartisan border security deal

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

One last loss for the Ronna McDaniel era, for old times sake 👌🏻

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Not so sure the predictions some blue avatars made about Trump getting 40% in NYC due to the migrant crisis will come true...

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/aaronnarraph/status/1757619167799259619

[emailking]

An 8 point win wow!

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Fritschner/status/1757607764270985612
https://twitter.com/SACarrow/status/1757608952097845481

[warandwar]

While everyone tries to read the bird entrails of what this might mean for all sorts of other NY CD's potentially up for grabs in '24 from this particular election....

It is patently clear that these numbers are not at all good for PUBS when it comes to arguably a state which might well determine the control of the US House in '24.

I think a lot of the people in this district who'd vote for someone like Vicki Paladino in a city council race won't vote for republicans during a presidential election year, basically.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1757620760280027189

Well, I guess that answers the question of whether she’s gonna be the party’s nominee in November.

[Flats the Flounder]

It's a special election for a seat where the former R was scandal plagued. Historically this hurts the scandal plagued politician's party by at least 5%, usually around 10%.


It is bad for R's in the sense that Suozzi will likely win in November, but it was clear D's would win back this seat ever since February 2023 when Santos's skeletons started coming out of the closet

It's closer to 5% if you don't account for districts that had no challengers before the scandal. Suozzi's win is still impressive even despite that. If Santos had never had any scandal and the reason the special election was being held was because he died or something, Suozzi would still have flipped the seat.

[GALeftist]

Another L for the vaunted Shy Tory phenomenon

[Progressive Pessimist]

Whatever conclusions that are positive for Democrats that can be drawn, all those narratives will all be moot the next time, probably tomorrow, we get a poll with Trump leading somewhere.

No matter what, Democrats have yet again been victorious in an election, more so than polling suggests. And no matter what you can blame to excuse it (candidate quality, the weather, turnout, etc.) the point stands that the Republican Party is more often than not being out-organized and failing to get its voters out. Not only that, but they're handing Democrats opportunities to counter the rhetoric they keep wanting to force by doing stupid s*** like overturning Roe V. Wade and refusing the most conservative border bill they could possibly ever get.

Anyway, at least we're going to be able to watch TV again without constant Pilip-Suozzi ads. Well, until November. Though surely Suozzi is the favorite in the next incarnation of NY-3.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Anyway, at least we're going to be able to watch TV again without constant Pilip-Suozzi ads. Well, until November.

I have some good news for you.

You won't be seeing any Pilip-Suozzi ads in November.

As far as the Pilip half of that goes, you won't be seeing any Pilip ads because she won't be the Republican nominee. Trump realized, after her defeat, that she is not white and also that she didn't say clearly that she voted for Trump in 2020. In a healthy political party, allowing latitude for your swing seat candidates to distance themselves at least a bit from the national party would be acceptable. But this is the Trumpcultlican Party we are talking about. So Pilip's career in national-level Republican politics is over.

You also won't be seeing Suozzi ads either (or at least very few). The reason for that is because Republicans won't really be contesting NY-03 in November. They know, after this, that they are not going to win it in November - certainly not against a strong and well known incumbent like Suozzi. And more importantly, even if they wanted to contest it they would not have the money to do so. Because pretty much all the Republican cash is going to pay Trump's legal bills, or else to Trump's campaign. What little is left over for Congressional races will be going to other seats where they think they have an actual chance.

[Yoda]

At some point we have to collectively deal with the fact that the polls are consistently overestimating republicans. I think what a lot of people are missing is that the number of people who are anti trump is far larger than the number of people who are pro trump. trump probably has the lowest ceiling of any Presidential candidate since Dukakis. the pro trump people make a lot of noise though.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

R+0

[emailking]

What did the polls suggest this would be?

[Epaminondas]

Final prediction:

Suozzi - 54%
Pippi - 46%

Not bad.