Why is Trump still competitive against Biden after everything that's happened?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

The fundamentals favor Republicans by a mile. Poor economy, low approval ratings, etc. Trump will underperform fundamentals, but probably not by enough to lose.

Same thing was said in 2022. Didn’t happen. If things are even slightly better or stay the same, Biden cleans house and Dems take back the house. Republicans wish-casting things to deteriorate just to attempt to gain power back will backfire hard.

The GOP’s problems are a dime a dozen not the least of which is a ground same with mail ins and early voting.

In all seriousness, say what you will about Floridas voting methods, but at least we’re quick. Even if the results suck.  

If things stay the same, Biden probably loses or ties the popular vote, given where polling is. What's wishcasting is expecting polls to somehow move towards Biden.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status/1691222860231012352

Thanks to stimulus, PPP loans and the indictments, Trump is set to gain the black vote.

DeSantis has no shot of replicating this.

[TodayJunior]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

The fundamentals favor Republicans by a mile. Poor economy, low approval ratings, etc. Trump will underperform fundamentals, but probably not by enough to lose.

Same thing was said in 2022. Didn’t happen. If things are even slightly better or stay the same, Biden cleans house and Dems take back the house. Republicans wish-casting things to deteriorate just to attempt to gain power back will backfire hard.

The GOP’s problems are a dime a dozen not the least of which is a ground same with mail ins and early voting.

In all seriousness, say what you will about Floridas voting methods, but at least we’re quick. Even if the results suck.  

If things stay the same, Biden probably loses or ties the popular vote, given where polling is. What's wishcasting is expecting polls to somehow move towards Biden.

Do you honestly believe that with Trump as the opposition?

[Hindsight was 2020]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Oh I know why the indictments are making Trump stronger.

I distaste fanatics on both sides, and I can sence the indictments are pushed by fanatics in the Democrat party that make me puke, as much as fanatics in the Republican party.

Democrats say nothing positive these days, just a rehash of the "lock her up" language that I disliked in 2016 and now.

So Trump becomes stronger as a result, because Democrats have debased themselves to a lower level.

Or actually maybe - just maybe - Donald Trump has committed a slew of crimes, and is actually being held accountable! Which is exactly what should be happening in a typical, normal, functioning country!

Do you believe that Trump is guilty because you are a Democrat, or are you a Democrat because you think he's guilty ?

So you see it's impossible for a President to receive a free and fair trial because everyone has a personal opinion of them, you can't find an unbiased Judge or Jury for them.

That's the function of voters to decide in an election.

Jailing your political opponent because you are afraid he's going to win, is not the behaviour of a typical, normal, functioning country.

I think he’s guilty because of the overwhelming evidence that has been presented in these cases which none of you guys ever engage in.

[wbrocks67]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Oh I know why the indictments are making Trump stronger.

I distaste fanatics on both sides, and I can sence the indictments are pushed by fanatics in the Democrat party that make me puke, as much as fanatics in the Republican party.

Democrats say nothing positive these days, just a rehash of the "lock her up" language that I disliked in 2016 and now.

So Trump becomes stronger as a result, because Democrats have debased themselves to a lower level.

Or actually maybe - just maybe - Donald Trump has committed a slew of crimes, and is actually being held accountable! Which is exactly what should be happening in a typical, normal, functioning country!

Do you believe that Trump is guilty because you are a Democrat, or are you a Democrat because you think he's guilty ?

So you see it's impossible for a President to receive a free and fair trial because everyone has a personal opinion of them, you can't find an unbiased Judge or Jury for them.

That's the function of voters to decide in an election.

Jailing your political opponent because you are afraid he's going to win, is not the behaviour of a typical, normal, functioning country.

This is all frankly delusional, I'm sorry. Donald Trump committed numerous crimes. That's not a partisan thing to say, it's a fact. It literally has nothing to do with my ideology. The fact that you believe that people should not be held accountable for their actions is downright scary.

[wbrocks67]

I honestly don't know.  I figured he wouldn't even be leading his own party for the nomination considering what has gone on. I guess we need another year to see how the polls will really be.

No offense, but why would anyone think GOP primary voters would suddenly now have some type of moral compass about this? Especially after the loons that were nominated in 2022.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I honestly don't know.  I figured he wouldn't even be leading his own party for the nomination considering what has gone on. I guess we need another year to see how the polls will really be.

No offense, but why would anyone think GOP primary voters would suddenly now have some type of moral compass about this? Especially after the loons that were nominated in 2022.

None taken. Well, what I think is that GOP voters would have Trump fatigue and want to move on. Don't you think that after so many years a particular party would want to move on from a specific candidate?

The GOP base is a cult of personality. It isn't a political party anymore and thinking of it as such will drive anyone crazy.

[Ferguson97]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

We know why, but every time we give the explanation (GOP primary voters are stupid and evil), you get mad at us.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again. 

[TodayJunior]

Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again. 

Correct! I really wish the average Republican could see this. Trump has destroyed that party.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again. 

Correct! I really wish the average Republican could see this. Trump has destroyed that party.

Biden has destroyed his party as well. He's another Bush/Carter.

[TodayJunior]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

Yeah and taking elections for granted obviously doesn't have consequences.  Just ask Martha Coakley and Roy Moore.

This isn’t 2016 anymore. Nothing will be taken for granted and all the swing states are going to be fortified by then (ie not completely  ignoring Michigan and Wisconsin)

[emailking]

I've come to accept politics doesn't actually work the way I thought it did 10 years ago. And I don't really know why or how it works.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again.  

Idk if it'll be 55-45 but I tend to agree; even in most of these potentially flawed polls, it seems the "undecides" tend to be very favorable for Biden. And yeah, there are very few people who are going to flip either way; the biggest danger is probably Trump just activating even more voters than 2020.

[RI]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Nope:

https://twitter.com/Matt__Graham/status/1691438599982469120

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's losing NH after Woody wrongly said Hassan was gonna lose last time and Redban thought Biden was losing NH with Ayotte leads

[heatcharger]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Nope:

Any analysis of how the indictments are affecting the primary without including that Trump is only growing his lead over his opponents is incomplete.

Funny thing is, I actually wasn't referring to the primary but everyone seemed to assume I was. The people I'm talking about don't vote in GOP primaries.

I only have anecdotes, but I have a lot of anecdotes. The sentiment I'm hearing about Trump from young men of all races tells me Something Is Going On.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Nope:

Any analysis of how the indictments are affecting the primary without including that Trump is only growing his lead over his opponents is incomplete.

Funny thing is, I actually wasn't referring to the primary but everyone seemed to assume I was. The people I'm talking about don't vote in GOP primaries.

I only have anecdotes, but I have a lot of anecdotes. The sentiment I'm hearing about Trump from young men of all races tells me Something Is Going On.

Speaking of anecdotes, I was Jorgensen 2020 but Trump 2024. Anecdotally, it does seem like Biden is losing a lot more support than Trump. The people who care about Trump indictments at all already voted for Biden in 2020, from what I'm seeing in this forum.

The indictments are just giving me a gigantic yawn, just like the Hunter Biden story. If Trump really gets arrested, that's a different story, and I'll do whatever I can to ensure Biden stays as far from office as possible in that case, since it means that he has successfully gotten to the level of authoritarian dictators.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

The answer frankly lies with Biden. If we had a younger, more dynamic president, I wouldn’t be even slightly worried about losing next year. I might even be predicting the biggest landslide since 1996. If we had a Harry Truman or even Bill Clinton/Barack Obama level fighter out there on the campaign trail railing against the GOP post-Dobbs, post-1/6, stirring up enthusiasm among younger voters and the base, this election wouldn’t be even remotely close. As it is I expect another nailbiter. I like Biden, but he simply doesn’t have the energy and passion and charisma needed to really sell your case to the public, not anymore anyway. That was fine when the message was “return to normalcy,” 1920 Harding style. But now we need a fighter to really eviscerate Trump and the Republicans and turn this election into a referendum on their most unpopular qualities, just like all three of the former presidents I previously mentioned did in their successful bids for a second term. I simply fear old Joe doesn’t have it in him, but I hope he proves me wrong.

This is why I’d like to actually see a credible candidate jump into a primary against him. Gavin Newsome perhaps?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again.  

Idk if it'll be 55-45 but I tend to agree; even in most of these potentially flawed polls, it seems the "undecides" tend to be very favorable for Biden. And yeah, there are very few people who are going to flip either way; the biggest danger is probably Trump just activating even more voters than 2020.

I was too casual with 55-45. I suspect it would be closer to Biden 53%, Trump 45% nationally, but still a far more solid win than 2020. Unless non-Trump voters get complacement, or there is some sort of upheaval that impacts the race. I have a hard time seeing Trump find any significant number of new voters. The bigger danger will be a 2016 replay, where Biden is seens as "having it in the bag" and just enough people blow off voting, or vote third party to hand a win to Donald.  But I have a hard time seeing that, either.

Now, I do expect something to change, maybe a lot of things. (Among others, I do not think Trump is certain to be coronated as the nominee.)

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status/1691222860231012352

Thanks to stimulus, PPP loans and the indictments, Trump is set to gain the black vote.

DeSantis has no shot of replicating this.

I'm not saying I completely doubt this, but the first tweet on that page is something about "proof that big tech colluded with Democrats to steal the election from Kari Lake." I googled YG + Trump and found nothing, nor was there anything on his IG. So yeah, better source needed.

[Duke of York]

Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again.  

Idk if it'll be 55-45 but I tend to agree; even in most of these potentially flawed polls, it seems the "undecides" tend to be very favorable for Biden. And yeah, there are very few people who are going to flip either way; the biggest danger is probably Trump just activating even more voters than 2020.

I was too casual with 55-45. I suspect it would be closer to Biden 53%, Trump 45% nationally, but still a far more solid win than 2020. Unless non-Trump voters get complacement, or there is some sort of upheaval that impacts the race. I have a hard time seeing Trump find any significant number of new voters. The bigger danger will be a 2016 replay, where Biden is seens as "having it in the bag" and just enough people blow off voting, or vote third party to hand a win to Donald.  But I have a hard time seeing that, either.

Now, I do expect something to change, maybe a lot of things. (Among others, I do not think Trump is certain to be coronated as the nominee.)

after 2016 I don't think anyone will see any election as being in the bag. Turnout has been high in every election since then.

[dspNY]

43-44 percent of the country will vote for a Republican regardless of who it is

[Vosem]

I think it is pretty easy to see 2017-2021 as having been better economically than 2021-present. Biden himself is unpopular, and in an unusual way; even among his supporters his support seems more wide than it is deep, and he's widely mocked. Republican economic policies have the support of a majority of Americans, and to return to the mainstream Democrats need to move right on 'fiscal' issues. I think that covers it, basically.

Hot take: Trump isn't competitive against Biden unless there some sort of upset. Even if the economy stutters along where it is now, Biden wins 55-45. Independent voters don't really like Biden much, and various groups have their bones to pick with either him or the Democratic Party, but no-one who isn't a Trump cultist or willing fellow-traveler will vote for Trump again. 

Idk if it'll be 55-45 but I tend to agree; even in most of these potentially flawed polls, it seems the "undecides" tend to be very favorable for Biden. And yeah, there are very few people who are going to flip either way; the biggest danger is probably Trump just activating even more voters than 2020.

I was too casual with 55-45. I suspect it would be closer to Biden 53%, Trump 45% nationally, but still a far more solid win than 2020. Unless non-Trump voters get complacement, or there is some sort of upheaval that impacts the race. I have a hard time seeing Trump find any significant number of new voters. The bigger danger will be a 2016 replay, where Biden is seens as "having it in the bag" and just enough people blow off voting, or vote third party to hand a win to Donald.  But I have a hard time seeing that, either.

Now, I do expect something to change, maybe a lot of things. (Among others, I do not think Trump is certain to be coronated as the nominee.)

On the one hand, it's definitely true that in 2022 Republican candidates that leaned very hard into running on 1/6 did as well as the 2020 election at best, but often did far worse. At the same time, it's really difficult to deny that the Trump v. Biden average is close to an exact average (and there have definitely been months where Trump has led in the PV outright), and this very very likely means that Trump has been 'winning' for the entirety of 2023.

Like, even 53-45 is a "more than 2008" victory projection. You need to be really confident that Trump's campaign will be a disaster, or that 2024 will be an extremely successful year for Biden.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because we're polarized, thanks mostly to Trump. But even then, I think there is more to this election than polling and even with Biden's unpopularity, Americans want an attractive alternative that I doubt a disgraced former President, at his weakest status, charged with 91 felonies, who is incapable of discipline and an actual message that can attract new voters will be. 2022 was very much indicative of this. Democrats were not popular but the Republican Party offered nothing better in many of the most important battleground states.

I'm not saying Trump can't win at all in the end. Our system can still allow him that. But if unforeseen circumstances for next year don't pan out to Trump's advantage, his best and only hope is probably for Democratic complacency/disillusionment or enough of them voting third party to cause another 2016. The possibility is there, but as long as Democrats instill the stakes of having Trump as President again, and remind voters of the lessons we were supposed to learn from 2016, I still think Biden wins in the end as of right now and that the incumbency advantage he will get (which both Obama and Trump got as well in their respective re-election campaigns) will manifest itself subconsciously in voters when they actually go out to the polls.