Disconnect between national polling and election results?

[dspNY]

I feel like there's a significant disconnect between the polling which favors Republicans and what we've actually seen on the ground with election results when you look at the 2022 midterms and the 2023 state elections.

The Democrats were supposed to get rolled in the last midterm but actually gained a Senate seat and lost only 9 House seats. The Democrats flipped the Michigan and Minnesota state legislatures (first time Democrats control all of Michigan in almost 40 years). Democrats easily won the gubernatorial elections in PA and MI, and flipped Arizona. They held WI-Gov, but lost NV-Gov. However, they held NV-Sen at the same time. Warnock almost won GA-Sen outright in November and pretty easily retained the seat in the runoff.

In 2023 the Democrats easily won the statewide race in Wisconsin that determined control of the state Supreme Court. They have outperformed in a number of local elections and the Republican gambit to raise the threshold for changing the Ohio ballot laws changed.

I think Democratic underperformance in California and New York swung the national numbers towards the GOP but that won't happen in 2024 and the swing states from 2020 largely voted Democratic despite Republicans winning the generic ballot by 2.8%

[LostInOhio]

I actually think the real issue is that the GOP has become too reliant on Trump to increase turnout. The 2012 post mortem about them losing votes due to generational change and unpopularity with young and minority voters turned out to be accurate but Trump is a celebrity with a ton of Rust Belt and rural support so he’s become a sort of stopgap for them. When he’s not on the ballot (2018, 2022) they get stomped. He lost narrowly in 2020 and that was largely due to anger over COVID increasing independent votes for Biden.

2024 is a toss up with Trump there. And yes I know that he motivates a lot of Democratic turnout as well which is a big problem but it doesn’t negate my overall point.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I actually think the real issue is that the GOP has become too reliant on Trump to increase turnout. The 2012 post mortem about them losing votes due to generational change and unpopularity with young and minority voters turned out to be accurate but Trump is a celebrity with a ton of Rust Belt and rural support so he’s become a sort of stopgap for them. When he’s not on the ballot (2018, 2022) they get stomped. He lost narrowly in 2020 and that was largely due to anger over COVID increasing independent votes for Biden.

2024 is a toss up with Trump there. And yes I know that he motivates a lot of Democratic turnout as well which is a big problem but it doesn’t negate my overall point.

Republicans did turn out in 2022 though (they had massive turnout advantages in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia iirc). They just didn't do well with swing voters.

[LostInOhio]

I actually think the real issue is that the GOP has become too reliant on Trump to increase turnout. The 2012 post mortem about them losing votes due to generational change and unpopularity with young and minority voters turned out to be accurate but Trump is a celebrity with a ton of Rust Belt and rural support so he’s become a sort of stopgap for them. When he’s not on the ballot (2018, 2022) they get stomped. He lost narrowly in 2020 and that was largely due to anger over COVID increasing independent votes for Biden.

2024 is a toss up with Trump there. And yes I know that he motivates a lot of Democratic turnout as well which is a big problem but it doesn’t negate my overall point.

Republicans did turn out in 2022 though (they had massive turnout advantages in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia iirc). They just didn't do well with swing voters.

They didn’t turn out as much as they did in 2020. If they had gotten those numbers they probably would have won the Senate. Those people didn’t turn out for the GOP in 2020, they turned out for Trump and just so happened to vote Republican down-ballot (hence the Democrats disappointing performance in Congress in 2020, aside from Georgia senate).

Trump has great coattails for the GOP as he turns out a lot of low propensity voters.

Check out this article: https://www.palisadeshudson.com/2020/11/trumps-coatless-coattails/

[DrScholl]

It was more so the forecasting from prognosticators that was wrong. Some polls were wrong, but in many places they got close to the results. And the point about Trump bringing out voters is very valid, because there are a number of apathetic types who turn out for Trump who don't care about other races.

[President Johnson]

I actually think the real issue is that the GOP has become too reliant on Trump to increase turnout. The 2012 post mortem about them losing votes due to generational change and unpopularity with young and minority voters turned out to be accurate but Trump is a celebrity with a ton of Rust Belt and rural support so he’s become a sort of stopgap for them. When he’s not on the ballot (2018, 2022) they get stomped. He lost narrowly in 2020 and that was largely due to anger over COVID increasing independent votes for Biden.

2024 is a toss up with Trump there. And yes I know that he motivates a lot of Democratic turnout as well which is a big problem but it doesn’t negate my overall point.

Not sure as this would indicate Trump is the most electable Republican. Election results from other races over the last few years seem to disagree as many MAGA clowns and election deniers were defeated while more traditional Republicans won. Former even lost in territory Republicans should have no business to lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We always get these NY avatars that seems like they wantta be moderators like I am not saying, they arent leaders on the board, they  are in fact Kaiser Dave types but they seem very well connected to him


The problem with natl polls it's that think it's a Quick fast same day voting like what transpired like 2016 and Trump instantly wins, it doesn't work that way and you have the user in Lost OH even thinking that and we just won OH , Media except for Fox says with Brown Rs are toast in OH

As I continue to say, with VBM they bring in Provisions ballots, the Rs try to diminish voting that's why they continue to lose 2/1 Provisions ballots , and they do lose them because of females not men

[oldtimer]

Same argument was made for Bill Clinton in the mid-1990's.

Why did Democrats do so badly in smaller more local races while winning the presidency so easily back then?

The answer as I remember was that the smaller the race the more upscale, whiter, and older the electorate. And those were solidly Republican back then and solidly Democrat now.

The only thing you might get is the relative position between states, example Nevada vs Arizona, Ohio vs Pennsylvania, Iowa vs Wisconsin.

[Alben Barkley]

The answer frankly lies with Biden. If we had a younger, more dynamic president, I wouldn’t be even slightly worried about losing next year. I might even be predicting the biggest landslide since 1996. If we had a Harry Truman or even Bill Clinton/Barack Obama level fighter out there on the campaign trail railing against the GOP post-Dobbs, post-1/6, stirring up enthusiasm among younger voters and the base, this election wouldn’t be even remotely close. As it is I expect another nailbiter. I like Biden, but he simply doesn’t have the energy and passion and charisma needed to really sell your case to the public, not anymore anyway. That was fine when the message was “return to normalcy,” 1920 Harding style. But now we need a fighter to really eviscerate Trump and the Republicans and turn this election into a referendum on their most unpopular qualities, just like all three of the former presidents I previously mentioned did in their successful bids for a second term. I simply fear old Joe doesn’t have it in him, but I hope he proves me wrong.

[Tekken_Guy]

The answer frankly lies with Biden. If we had a younger, more dynamic president, I wouldn’t be even slightly worried about losing next year. I might even be predicting the biggest landslide since 1996. If we had a Harry Truman or even Bill Clinton/Barack Obama level fighter out there on the campaign trail railing against the GOP post-Dobbs, post-1/6, stirring up enthusiasm among younger voters and the base, this election wouldn’t be even remotely close. As it is I expect another nailbiter. I like Biden, but he simply doesn’t have the energy and passion and charisma needed to really sell your case to the public, not anymore anyway. That was fine when the message was “return to normalcy,” 1920 Harding style. But now we need a fighter to really eviscerate Trump and the Republicans and turn this election into a referendum on their most unpopular qualities, just like all three of the former presidents I previously mentioned did in their successful bids for a second term. I simply fear old Joe doesn’t have it in him, but I hope he proves me wrong.

All Democrats have to do is consolidate the anti-Trump vote and that’s enough for them to win. Hillary Clinton almost did it and she wasn’t an inspiring candidate, and the Democratic base isn’t nearly as complacent as they were in 2016.

[BG-NY]

I actually think the real issue is that the GOP has become too reliant on Trump to increase turnout. The 2012 post mortem about them losing votes due to generational change and unpopularity with young and minority voters turned out to be accurate but Trump is a celebrity with a ton of Rust Belt and rural support so he’s become a sort of stopgap for them. When he’s not on the ballot (2018, 2022) they get stomped. He lost narrowly in 2020 and that was largely due to anger over COVID increasing independent votes for Biden.

2024 is a toss up with Trump there. And yes I know that he motivates a lot of Democratic turnout as well which is a big problem but it doesn’t negate my overall point.

Not sure as this would indicate Trump is the most electable Republican. Election results from other races over the last few years seem to disagree as many MAGA clowns and election deniers were defeated while more traditional Republicans won. Former even lost in territory Republicans should have no business to lose.

TBH, I think this speaks more about Trumpism than Trump. When his policies are on the ballot but he’s not selling them, they underachieve. With him and his policies, you have a shot at winning (though you can lose, like he did in 2020). Which means the GOP in 2028 needs to go in another direction.

[KaiserDave]

Would KaiserDave types and those well-connected to me please stand up?