Why is Trump still competitive against Biden after everything that's happened?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They just said it on the news Trump has been indicted not Convicted yet

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I am not sure if the polling is off or if the voters of this country are just that stupid, but I cannot fathom that we'll elect Trump again given all that has happened since the 2020 election. We'd be the laughing stock of the world.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's kind of worth noting that Trump seems to have a pretty hard ceiling in the PV per polls of around 44%. If you take what he got in the last two elections and then subtract some people turned off by the indictments and January 6, that makes sense.

It's just that Biden is also polling around that with a lot of undecideds. This isn't surprising because there are a lot of people who clearly don't like Trump or Biden for the reasons cited. But if Trump's ceiling is hard as it appears, I think it's obvious who those undecideds will mostly decide to suck it up and vote for.

[wbrocks67]

I am not sure if the polling is off or if the voters of this country are just that stupid, but I cannot fathom that we'll elect Trump again given all that has happened since the 2020 election. We'd be the laughing stock of the world.

Yeah, it's hard to square it with the results of the 2022 election. Election denialism and Trumpism was generally soundly defeated, so it wouldn't exactly make sense for the electorate to be like "just kidding!" in 2024.

[wbrocks67]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

Nearly all of the polls that have it that close have it like 43-41 or something. Generally, polls that have pushed people or took out a 3rd party option have shown Biden closer to 50, and Trump generally at a 45% ceiling.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I am not sure if the polling is off or if the voters of this country are just that stupid, but I cannot fathom that we'll elect Trump again given all that has happened since the 2020 election. We'd be the laughing stock of the world.

Yeah, it's hard to square it with the results of the 2022 election. Election denialism and Trumpism was generally soundly defeated, so it wouldn't exactly make sense for the electorate to be like "just kidding!" in 2024.

Not a single election denier won a statewide office in a swing state. Why would they then go around and vote for the chief election denier?

[heatcharger]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

[Sir Mohamed]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

The fundamentals favor Republicans by a mile. Poor economy, low approval ratings, etc. Trump will underperform fundamentals, but probably not by enough to lose.

The poor economy narrative doesn't become true just because it's repeated a thousand times.

[oldtimer]

I am not sure if the polling is off or if the voters of this country are just that stupid, but I cannot fathom that we'll elect Trump again given all that has happened since the 2020 election. We'd be the laughing stock of the world.

The problem with Democrats increasing the stakes all the time is that this isn't a poker game, it's a popularity contest.

You can't force people not to vote Biden out if they really want to, world opinion be damned.

[wbrocks67]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Pretty sure we all understand why it's making him stronger among GOP Primary voters.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

I think a lot of us understand why. Many Trump supporters feel like they are victims in today's world and he is their voice and spiritual leader. All of these indictments represent the elites/liberal/globalist forces who are enemies of Trump's base that are trying to take out their leader before he retakes power.

I suppose there is nothing Trump can do that will lose him support of 41-44% of the electorate. I do think most of the undecides will vote for Biden or not vote. I can't imagine how you can be undecided and go vote for Trump in the end.

[Mechavada]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

Yeah and taking elections for granted obviously doesn't have consequences.  Just ask Martha Coakley and Roy Moore.

[oldtimer]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Oh I know why the indictments are making Trump stronger.

I distaste fanatics on both sides, and I can sence the indictments are pushed by fanatics in the Democrat party that make me puke, as much as fanatics in the Republican party.

Democrats say nothing positive these days, just a rehash of the "lock her up" language that I disliked in 2016 and now.

So Trump becomes stronger as a result, because Democrats have debased themselves to a lower level.

[wbrocks67]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Oh I know why the indictments are making Trump stronger.

I distaste fanatics on both sides, and I can sence the indictments are pushed by fanatics in the Democrat party that make me puke, as much as fanatics in the Republican party.

Democrats say nothing positive these days, just a rehash of the "lock her up" language that I disliked in 2016 and now.

So Trump becomes stronger as a result, because Democrats have debased themselves to a lower level.

Or actually maybe - just maybe - Donald Trump has committed a slew of crimes, and is actually being held accountable! Which is exactly what should be happening in a typical, normal, functioning country!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I can't imagine how you can be undecided and go vote for Trump in the end.

People who simply prefer the economy in 2019 to the one in 2023.

[wbrocks67]

I can't imagine how you can be undecided and go vote for Trump in the end.

People who simply prefer the economy in 2019 to the one in 2023.

Once again, literally no reason to compare the two given that one was pre-pandemic and one was post-pandemic.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I can't imagine how you can be undecided and go vote for Trump in the end.

People who simply prefer the economy in 2019 to the one in 2023.

We won't go back to the economy in 2019 whether Trump is re-elected or not. We're in a post-pandemic world that has changed a lot. There are a whole host of other risks that come with sending him back to the White House that I'd rather not live through.

[MT Treasurer]

As always with Trump, the question is with whom a particular event makes him stronger, his base or his base and a broader electorate? Kavanaugh juiced up Republican turnout and they still got absolutely crushed in 2018 with relatively favorable economic fundamentals/no foreign crisis. Why? Because he and his party's brand were absolutely toxic among vast swaths of the electorate who weren’t part of the base.

I agree that the indictments have made a good chunk of his supporters even more enthusiastic, but there’s absolutely no evidence it’s made him stronger in a general election.

Yes, Trump's base is vocal; it’s really, really loud, it’s super-passionate, but for the umpteenth time — it’s not even close to a plurality of the American electorate. An unenthusiastic Biden vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic Trump vote.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

As always with Trump, the question is with whom a particular event makes him stronger, his base or his base and a broader electorate? Kavanaugh juiced up Republican turnout and they still got absolutely crushed in 2018 with relatively favorable economic fundamentals/no foreign crisis. Why? Because he and his party's brand were absolutely toxic among vast swaths of the electorate who weren’t part of the base.

I agree that the indictments have made a good chunk of his supporters even more enthusiastic, but there’s absolutely no evidence it’s made him stronger in a general election.

Yes, Trump's base is vocal; it’s really, really loud, it’s super-passionate, but for the umpteenth time — it’s not even close to a plurality of the American electorate. An unenthusiastic Biden vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic Trump vote.

We know Trump's supporters do not make up the majority of the electorate, but as we saw in 2020, Trump can still come extremely close to winning the EC even when losing the popular vote by as much as he did.

All it takes is a few thousand votes to shift in GA, PA, WI, AZ, etc. for another 4 years of chaos.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

Yeah and taking elections for granted obviously doesn't have consequences.  Just ask Martha Coakley and Roy Moore.

No one's arguing to take an election for granted.

Like I said in a previous post, I think we need to draw a distinction between "alarmism" and "doomerism". When people complain about doomers and the like, they aren't saying we should just assume victory and not bother, just that bedwetting and "IT'S OVER TRUMP HAS WON!" garbage does not help at all. If SnowLabrador was a DNC operative would he be of any help whatsoever?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I can't imagine how you can be undecided and go vote for Trump in the end.

People who simply prefer the economy in 2019 to the one in 2023.

We won't go back to the economy in 2019 whether Trump is re-elected or not. We're in a post-pandemic world that has changed a lot. There are a whole host of other risks that come with sending him back to the White House that I'd rather not live through.

We probably eventually will, the probably is that we're trying to pop a bubble caused by artificially low interest rates for the last few decades. The 2019 economy was high on the bubble and thus felt good.

However, what matters is what the electorate thinks. They associate Trump with 2019 and Biden with today.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As always with Trump, the question is with whom a particular event makes him stronger, his base or his base and a broader electorate? Kavanaugh juiced up Republican turnout and they still got absolutely crushed in 2018 with relatively favorable economic fundamentals/no foreign crisis. Why? Because he and his party's brand were absolutely toxic among vast swaths of the electorate who weren’t part of the base.

I agree that the indictments have made a good chunk of his supporters even more enthusiastic, but there’s absolutely no evidence it’s made him stronger in a general election.

Yes, Trump's base is vocal; it’s really, really loud, it’s super-passionate, but for the umpteenth time — it’s not even close to a plurality of the American electorate. An unenthusiastic Biden vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic Trump vote.

We know Trump's supporters do not make up the majority of the electorate, but as we saw in 2020, Trump can still come extremely close to winning the EC even when losing the popular vote by as much as he did.

All it takes is a few thousand votes to shift in GA, PA, WI, AZ, etc. for another 4 years of chaos.

The issue is in all 4 of those states, demographic change and generational turnover should net Biden tens of thousands of votes by itself. So Trump has more than just 2020 margins to make up with turnout and vote-flippers.

Even in “right trending Wisconsin”, nearly half of new residents added since 2020 have been from high turnout and extremely Dem leaning Dane County. Assuming those new residents turnout and vote like current Residents, that alone should net Biden around 15k votes. Stuff like this might be small, but it pads Biden’s margin for error in case he loses some voters and/or turnout dynamics are more favorable to Trump.

[oldtimer]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Oh I know why the indictments are making Trump stronger.

I distaste fanatics on both sides, and I can sence the indictments are pushed by fanatics in the Democrat party that make me puke, as much as fanatics in the Republican party.

Democrats say nothing positive these days, just a rehash of the "lock her up" language that I disliked in 2016 and now.

So Trump becomes stronger as a result, because Democrats have debased themselves to a lower level.

Or actually maybe - just maybe - Donald Trump has committed a slew of crimes, and is actually being held accountable! Which is exactly what should be happening in a typical, normal, functioning country!

Do you believe that Trump is guilty because you are a Democrat, or are you a Democrat because you think he's guilty ?

So you see it's impossible for a President to receive a free and fair trial because everyone has a personal opinion of them, you can't find an unbiased Judge or Jury for them.

That's the function of voters to decide in an election.

Jailing your political opponent because you are afraid he's going to win, is not the behaviour of a typical, normal, functioning country.

[TodayJunior]

It’s a mirage. This is not a competitive race. It only appears that way to generate ratings. The real race is between 6-8% nationally for Dems.

The polls show Biden and Trump within 1 in the popular vote.

The fundamentals and the actual votes to come in will favor democrats by a mile. Bank on it.  The gop has no ground game where they actually need it.

No one should be worried about a trump victory. People need to stop hyperventilating.

The fundamentals favor Republicans by a mile. Poor economy, low approval ratings, etc. Trump will underperform fundamentals, but probably not by enough to lose.

Same thing was said in 2022. Didn’t happen. If things are even slightly better or stay the same, Biden cleans house and Dems take back the house. Republicans wish-casting things to deteriorate just to attempt to gain power back will backfire hard.

The GOP’s problems are a dime a dozen not the least of which is a ground same with mail ins and early voting.

In all seriousness, say what you will about Floridas voting methods, but at least we’re quick and it doesn’t drone on. Even if the results suck.

[Jerseyan]

The indictments are making him stronger and hardly anyone on Atlas is equipped to understand why.

Oh I know why the indictments are making Trump stronger.

I distaste fanatics on both sides, and I can sence the indictments are pushed by fanatics in the Democrat party that make me puke, as much as fanatics in the Republican party.

Democrats say nothing positive these days, just a rehash of the "lock her up" language that I disliked in 2016 and now.

So Trump becomes stronger as a result, because Democrats have debased themselves to a lower level.

I can sense that you don't have a solid understanding of Trump's actions or why he's facing legal ramifications in the first place.