2023 New Zealand general election (14 October)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300936477/police-dogs-used-after-kiri-allan-found-away-from-crashed-car

Police dogs were used to track Labour MP Kiri Allan’s movements after she was found about 500 metres from her crashed car on Sunday evening, The Post understands.

It is understood Allan was found about 500m from the crash site, around Point Jerningham on the eastern end of Oriental Pde, and that police used dogs to gather evidence. The car she had been driving was still where a parked car had been struck.



The red star marks where the crash occurred, while the blue star is where Kiri Allan is thought to have been found.

[Pericles]

Just when Labour were looking like they knocked out, National leaked and went hard against a very popular Labour policy. For context, what this means is Labour are going to cut the 15% tax on fruit and vegetables, which would clearly mean food prices get lower. Economists and National don't like it because it complicates the tax system, and National are trying to make the story about Labour disunity. What has actually happened though is this policy has gotten lots of attention now, as well as the attention it will get when Labour officially announces it. It shifted the conversation away from cabinet chaos to the 'bread and butter issues' Hipkins is campaigning on. This isn't the first time they have fallen into his trap, so that's why I think he might out-campaign them.

[Pericles]

The polls are going to start coming in regularly now so I might not post every one, but the latest Newshub poll has some interesting data. As expected, Labour has taken a big hit, and are now back to where they were when Jacinda Ardern was Prime Minister. The party vote is 37% National to 32% Labour. Adding on ACT that gets the right to 49% and 63 seats, 57 seats and 45% of the vote remain for the left with the Greens on 10% and the Maori Party on 3%. Worryingly NZ First is on 4%, close to the threshold, but if they do make a comeback maybe it's a good thing if they become the handbrake to what could otherwise be a National-ACT government.

The leadership numbers are the silver lining for Labour though. Hipkins holds an 8 point lead as preferred Prime Minister, and his margin has actually increased slightly. He is insulated from the cabinet drama, with the public overwhelmingly thinking he has handled it well. And even worse for National, Luxon continues to get more distrusted-with a -12% net trust rating while Hipkins has a +17% rating. Newshub's poll tends to make Luxon look more unpopular than other polls, but that rating is at least worth looking out for.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

https://twitter.com/pollingausnz/status/1690040944421220358?s=46&t=Z0SNbGXij...

Labour down big, but NZF is at 6%. Keep winning with WINston, I suppose 🤢.

National+ACT = 48%
Labour+Greens+Māori+NZF = 48%

Obviously a four party coalition would truly be the fabled coalition of chaos, but…

Worryingly NZ First is on 4%, close to the threshold, but if they do make a comeback maybe it's a good thing if they become the handbrake to what could otherwise be a National-ACT government.

[Peeperkorn]

https://twitter.com/pollingausnz/status/1690040944421220358?s=46&t=Z0SNbGXij...

Labour down big, but NZF is at 6%. Keep winning with WINston, I suppose 🤢.

National+ACT = 48%
Labour+Greens+Māori+NZF = 48%

Obviously a four party coalition would truly be the fabled coalition of chaos, but…

Worryingly NZ First is on 4%, close to the threshold, but if they do make a comeback maybe it's a good thing if they become the handbrake to what could otherwise be a National-ACT government.

Didn't NZ First reject any potential support to Labour?

[PSOL]

Labour won’t make it to government next election, this has been clear ever since early 2022.

[Pericles]

Winston has declared that he will not work with Labour again. I think that is the most definitive he has ever been about which way he'll go. Still, if he decides it's in his own interest I think he can find a loophole in his promise (such as abstaining on confidence votes and seeing which bloc is larger on its own).

This is bad news for Labour's chances though. If NZ First is just under the 5% threshold, their votes are 'wasted' and so the left would be closer to the elected National and ACT bloc without any change in their own support. If NZ First gains two points from National and ACT, that means the margin between the left and right increases.

In that poll, National and ACT had a bare 61/120 majority anyway. It would be absolute humiliation for Labour to lose nearly half their vote share in a single election. To have such a right-wing government, Winston back and the left (even including TPM) only on 52 seats would be the worst possible outcome. I don't think Labour's chances are hopeless, but it would a big upset and relief if they even squeaked back in.

It would be a relief if it isn't just a two-way National and ACT coalition. I'd definitely rather have NZ First there to moderate National, rather than a large ACT caucus dragging Luxon further to the right.  Seymour even refused to work with Winston and is now putting out attack ads against him. Luxon keeps dodging the question on if he'll form a coalition with NZ First-a lot of right wingers think he can drive NZ First below the threshold by doing so, but it's not as simple as it was for John Key.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though it won't quite be as bad as 27% for Labour come election day, surely?

[JimJamUK]

In that poll, National and ACT had a bare 61/120 majority anyway. It would be absolute humiliation for Labour to lose nearly half their vote share in a single election. To have such a right-wing government, Winston back and the left (even including TPM) only on 52 seats would be the worst possible outcome. I don't think Labour's chances are hopeless, but it would a big upset and relief if they even squeaked back in.

It would be a relief if it isn't just a two-way National and ACT coalition. I'd definitely rather have NZ First there to moderate National, rather than a large ACT caucus dragging Luxon further to the right. 

How right wing are ACT? Are they solidly libertarian or more populist right wingers who hate taxes these days?

[DL]

Why is ACT suddenly polling so well? They used to be just a one seat party and now they seem set to win a dozen. In what way are their policies any different from the National Party?

It’s actually always surprised me that New Zealand has remained as much of a two party system as it is given it has an electoral system that would favour the formation of many smaller parties

[Хahar 🤔]

It’s actually always surprised me that New Zealand has remained as much of a two party system as it is given it has an electoral system that would favour the formation of many smaller parties

This is useful evidence that you can't change a country's political culture just by changing its electoral system.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/nzlabour/status/1690919131577544704

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/nzlabour/status/1690919131577544704

Will you get a bonus fruit basket if you vote Labour in the electorate and on the list?

[mileslunn]

What is reason ACT polling so well as they seem like libertarian type like party and would be most popular with well to do who want lower taxes and fewer programs but surprised in teens.  I could get during covid maybe were as New Zealand had pretty stringent restrictions which undoubtedly some disliked but I assumed as covid faded they would too?

[Pericles]

Chris Hipkins: A wealth tax that polls with majority support? That's politically toxic.

Also Chris Hipkins: Announce a fuel tax hike 57 days from the election? Sure!

Government to hike fuel taxes by 12c a litre to fund transport projects

Baffling.

[Pericles]

Labour has gone on the attack against NZ First. Hipkins ruled out another coalition with them, and said they are "a party more interested in toilets than the issues that matter most to New Zealanders". He labelled the combination of National, ACT and NZ First as a "coalition of fear" that would alienate people's "sense of belonging".

Practically it makes no difference because NZ First already ruled out Labour. This also does not mean we have much of an idea about what the arrangements between the three parties would be if NZ First gets the balance of power. Politically though, Labour clearly need to run a negative campaign, and the alternative needs to be seen as too risky. The public by landslide margins think the country is heading in the wrong direction and so undefined 'change' wins.

[Pericles]

Labour has upped their game by promising to make dental care free-for under 30s only though. Dental care has been a major gap in the health care system and the high costs mean many people put it off. National meanwhile came out with tax cuts targeted at middle-income earners, marketed as being up to $250 a fortnight for couples with children. Their costings have looked sketchy though-in particular their plan to eliminate the ban on foreign housing buyers and replace it with a foreign buyer's tax. So far it is unclear what has gotten cut through with the public.

[Pericles]

Getting hard to keep up hope with just 36 days left.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll (new pollster)
National-36%
Labour-26%
Green-12%
ACT-11%
NZ First-6%
Maori-3%

NZ First holds balance of power (narrowly) so a three-party National government, while Labour loses almost half its 2020 vote. Somehow Hipkins was preferred PM in this poll, 45%-43% in the two way question (the article is paywalled).

Latest Talbot Mills poll (Labour's internal pollster)

National-36% (+1%)
Labour-30% (-2%)
Green-12% (+2%)
ACT-10% (-1%)
NZ First-5% (+1%)
Maori-2.4% (-1%)

Preferred PM: Hipkins 28% (-6%), Luxon 26% (+2%)

This has the same outcome, National-ACT-NZ First. Labour aren't even close, though whether NZ First crosses the threshold is still in question.

The field dates for these polls largely do not cover National's tax announcement, Labour's free dental announcement, or any fallout from National's dodgy costings. Still, it was looking like a really close election a few months ago and now the mood for change looks much stronger.

[Polkergeist]

If Nat+ACT<61 seats, but NAT+ACT+NZF>60 seats, what is the most likely governing permutation?

If ACT wont serve in cabinet with NZF, who will National bring into cabinet and leave on the crossbench?

[Pericles]

If Nat+ACT<61 seats, but NAT+ACT+NZF>60 seats, what is the most likely governing permutation?

If ACT wont serve in cabinet with NZF, who will National bring into cabinet and leave on the crossbench?

National haven't given any hints. Luxon has been dodging the question of whether he'll work with NZ First, a lot of his base want him to rule them out but I doubt that's viable now.

National MPs loathe Peters so I think they'd prefer to go with ACT. It could depend on how coalition negotiations go, ACT are a much less cooperative minor party than the Greens. It's always hard to tell which 'bottom lines' are real and which aren't.

The Post's poll also polled support for different coalitions and not just party votes. National-ACT was at 47% to 40% for Labour-Greens. When NZ First was added to National-ACT they dipped a point to 46%, but when the Maori Party was added to Labour-Greens they fell to 35%. Unique question and unclear how salient it is for people's party votes, but interesting addition.

[Polkergeist]

It seems to me if National put ACT on the crossbench (even with a C&S arrangement), ACT could pick up disenchanted right-wing votes from National in a way that NZF could not given NZF history of being in Labour governments.

As NZF and Labour have ruled out a coalition together this time, National can afford to leave NZ First on the crossbench and govern with ACT.

Is this the case?

[jaichind]

The latest News/Verian poll has LAB falling further behind NAT

[Polkergeist]

The latest News/Verian poll has LAB falling further behind NAT

Election is now really just a question of NAT+ACT getting an absolute majority between themselves.

[Pericles]

It seems to me if National put ACT on the crossbench (even with a C&S arrangement), ACT could pick up disenchanted right-wing votes from National in a way that NZF could not given NZF history of being in Labour governments.

As NZF and Labour have ruled out a coalition together this time, National can afford to leave NZ First on the crossbench and govern with ACT.

Is this the case?

It will be interesting to see how Seymour adapts to being in government. Most minor parties have been smashed afterwards. He would need to make sure he can keep differentiating himself from National. One idea he put out was 'confidence without supply', so not guaranteeing his support for National's budgets. This is constitutional nonsense though because in a parliamentary system voting down a budget measure topples the government, so it must just be a weak bluff.

[CumbrianLefty]

What's behind the recent slump in Labour fortunes?