2023 New Zealand general election (14 October)

[Pericles]

Is there no chance of the Maori Party backing a Nat-ACT government?

IIRC they supported Key.

They are coming across as a lot more radical this time and Luxon is in no position to reach out to them. It was never happening so Luxon ruled them out to try and make them a liability for Labour (even using the 'Coalition of Chaos' phrase), we'll see if that cuts through.

[Pericles]

The latest 1News poll had an underwhelming lead for National, with 61 seats for the right-wing bloc to 59 for the left-wing bloc. This was taken in late June, a bad news period for Labour. So far the election remains very close.

[morgieb]

Is there no chance of the Maori Party backing a Nat-ACT government?

IIRC they supported Key.

IIRC I think that was because the Nats were so close to a majority anyway the easy option was to just give confidence and supply. Any BoP situation they'd almost certainly back Labor.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I haven't really been invested in NZ politics, so I'm wondering what in the world happened that caused Labour to experience such a decline from 2020?

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of it was the longer term fallout from the Covid pandemic AFAICS - as seen in other countries too after the initial "rally round the flag" pro-government boosts.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

A lot of it was the longer term fallout from the Covid pandemic AFAICS - as seen in other countries too after the initial "rally round the flag" pro-government boosts.

Plus people moving on from the pandemic and starting to think “well Labour and Jacinda have this absolute majority, why aren’t they solving [X issue, usually housing]?”

[mileslunn]

I haven't really been invested in NZ politics, so I'm wondering what in the world happened that caused Labour to experience such a decline from 2020?

Prior to pandemic, Ardern was in danger of being a one term wonder barely holding on.  During pandemic saw rally around flag everywhere and since NZ went before pandemic ended or at least worst phase, Ardern got full boost whereas most other countries went later so didn't get that.  In UK, Tories were in low 50s while in Germany CDU/CSU had massive lead yet lost in 2021.  In Canada, Trudeau was in high 40s with 20 point lead while in 2021 election won another minority and lost popular vote.  US was an outlier of no pandemic boost for leader as Trump messed up so badly.

Think of 9/11 and boost Bush got after.  Had an election been held in Fall of 2001 would have won a 1984 like landslide but by 2004 back to normal.  Since this is more just a reversion to mean

[Pericles]

Devastating news came in for Labour this morning, as the (now former) Justice Minister Kiri Allan was arrested for reckless driving and resisting arrest, as well as being over the alcohol limit. She was already under fire for her treatment of staff, and clearly has been dealing with some mental health issues. It's a real shame-she looked like one of the more talented and likable ministers. For Labour, that means four ministers are gone since Hipkins became PM just a few months ago-three forced to resign due to scandal and one who defected.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300934025/kiri-allan-resigns-as-minister-charged-with-reckless-driving-and-resisting-arrest

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Justice Minister resisting arrest is a rather poor look, yes.

[Senator Incitatus]

Devastating news came in for Labour this morning, as the (now former) Justice Minister Kiri Allan was arrested for reckless driving and resisting arrest, as well as being over the alcohol limit. She was already under fire for her treatment of staff, and clearly has been dealing with some mental health issues. It's a real shame-she looked like one of the more talented and likable ministers. For Labour, that means four ministers are gone since Hipkins became PM just a few months ago-three forced to resign due to scandal and one who defected.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300934025/kiri-allan-resigns-as-minister-charged-with-reckless-driving-and-resisting-arrest

One of the most cutting insults I have ever seen directed at a government, on this forum or elsewhere.

[Continential]

At this point - if National loses; I wonder how they would bungle this election up.

[mileslunn]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

Why would Macron or Trudeau come to your mind when you think of progressives?

[mileslunn]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

Why would Macron or Trudeau come to your mind when you think of progressives?

Macron is debatable but certainly he fits caricature of liberal elite type who academics would like and seen as slayer of LePen and promoter of European tolerant values.  But his economic policies fairly centrist. 

Trudeau unlike Macron is definitely on left.  True Liberal party of Canada has tended to be more centrist than social democratic parties in Europe or Oceania, but not case under Trudeau.  Created a new social program with universal childcare, big on gender equality, increasing immigration to record levels, raised taxes on rich, big on climate action, brought on tough gun laws like Ardern and is one who wears being woke on his sleeve with pride.

I mean not a lot of left leaning leaders out there to choose from and in terms of time in office, I believe Trudeau and Costa of Portugal are two who have been in office longest.  I guess there is Xavier Battel of Luxembourg who has been in office longer, but don't know much about him.  Only other leader longer was Mark Rutte of Netherlands since 2010, but he is centre-right so more like watered down version of ACT or National party on economics but somewhat more socially liberal.

I don't live in New Zealand, but I do know over here in North America, many on left often held Ardern up as model for progressives.  By contrast your rabid right wingers rarely look to Luxon as model.  He would be seen as too old school and not your modern right wing populist or not conservative enough even though more conservative than some past National leaders.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

Why would Macron or Trudeau come to your mind when you think of progressives?

Macron is debatable but certainly he fits caricature of liberal elite type who academics would like and seen as slayer of LePen and promoter of European tolerant values.  But his economic policies fairly centrist.  

Trudeau unlike Macron is definitely on left.  True Liberal party of Canada has tended to be more centrist than social democratic parties in Europe or Oceania, but not case under Trudeau.  Created a new social program with universal childcare, big on gender equality, increasing immigration to record levels, raised taxes on rich, big on climate action, brought on tough gun laws like Ardern and is one who wears being woke on his sleeve with pride.

I mean not a lot of left leaning leaders out there to choose from and in terms of time in office, I believe Trudeau and Costa of Portugal are two who have been in office longest.  I guess there is Xavier Battel of Luxembourg who has been in office longer, but don't know much about him.  Only other leader longer was Mark Rutte of Netherlands since 2010, but he is centre-right so more like watered down version of ACT or National party on economics but somewhat more socially liberal.

I don't live in New Zealand, but I do know over here in North America, many on left often held Ardern up as model for progressives.  By contrast your rabid right wingers rarely look to Luxon as model.  He would be seen as too old school and not your modern right wing populist or not conservative enough even though more conservative than some past National leaders.

Macron is solidly right-wing. Trudeau I guess cosplays as a progressive sometimes.

[Pericles]

Not a factor for their election chances, but this is some interesting news about ACT-Roger Douglas attacks ACT as "representing only the wealthy"

This is pretty surprising. For some context, Douglas was one of the founders of ACT. What he is most famous for is his time as Finance Minister from 1984-1988 under David Lange's Labour government. He was probably more consequential than any politician since, and completely overhauled the New Zealand economy from a virtually command and control interventionist economy to a highly deregulated neoliberal economy. This attack is ironic because it's hard to find a New Zealander who did more to increase inequality. Still, I like to see it.

ACT indeed has increasingly just been pandering to the top 10% of society. It even opposes National's policy of adjusting tax brackets for inflation, not to save money but because it preserves the progressive tax system.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This is pretty surprising.

more than pretty surprising, hysterically hypocritical.

[DL]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

We still have Joe Biden and in a year's time there will be Keir Starmer.

Macron only seems "progressive" because he faced off against Marine LePen twice, but he has been a very rightwing President more cut from the cloth of Valery Giscard d'Estaing than anyone from the French left.

[mileslunn]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

We still have Joe Biden and in a year's time there will be Keir Starmer.

Macron only seems "progressive" because he faced off against Marine LePen twice, but he has been a very rightwing President more cut from the cloth of Valery Giscard d'Estaing than anyone from the French left.

Joe Biden true although quite centrist and not charismatic like Obama.  Keir Starmer likely also in office but Biden, Scholz, and Starmer all sort of your boring types which is fine but get less attention.  But still you are right Biden could be described as somewhat progressive.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

In the event that Labour loses, will Chippie stay on and if not, who would replace him?

[DL]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

We still have Joe Biden and in a year's time there will be Keir Starmer.

Macron only seems "progressive" because he faced off against Marine LePen twice, but he has been a very rightwing President more cut from the cloth of Valery Giscard d'Estaing than anyone from the French left.

Joe Biden true although quite centrist and not charismatic like Obama.  Keir Starmer likely also in office but Biden, Scholz, and Starmer all sort of your boring types which is fine but get less attention.  But still you are right Biden could be described as somewhat progressive.

We don’t here much about Australian PM Albanese who remains quite popular after his first year

[CumbrianLefty]

more than pretty surprising, hysterically hypocritical.

But still quite interesting, given who it is!

[mileslunn]

Well if NZ swings right it could be part of larger trend where progressive leaders be it Sanna Marin, maybe Pedro Sanchez (but today's election inconclusive), and Ardern who are were all seen as examples progressives looked up to.  Yes you still have Macron and Trudeau although Macron pretty centrist so as was case when Trump won in 2016, it once might again fall to Trudeau is the champion for progressive policies in West.

We still have Joe Biden and in a year's time there will be Keir Starmer.

Macron only seems "progressive" because he faced off against Marine LePen twice, but he has been a very rightwing President more cut from the cloth of Valery Giscard d'Estaing than anyone from the French left.

Joe Biden true although quite centrist and not charismatic like Obama.  Keir Starmer likely also in office but Biden, Scholz, and Starmer all sort of your boring types which is fine but get less attention.  But still you are right Biden could be described as somewhat progressive.

We don’t here much about Australian PM Albanese who remains quite popular after his first year

He is more a Tony Blair like centrist, but yes quite popular.  Also L/NP has tried to be very GOP like and Australian right is not quite that right wing thus losing many centrist voters too.

[Cassius]

more than pretty surprising, hysterically hypocritical.

But still quite interesting, given who it is!

It’s worth bearing in mind that Douglas viewed his 80s reforms as an attack on ‘privilege’ within New Zealand society (make of that what you will, but I believe he used the exact word in a documentary on the Rogernomics years), and of course, in the first term in particular, the groups hardest hit by the Rogernomics reforms were the farmers and the manufacturing industry, both traditionally very well-insulated from international competition to the detriment of the consumer (particularly in the latter case). This intervention seems to be framed along similar lines as an attack on ‘privilege’.

[Pericles]

In the event that Labour loses, will Chippie stay on and if not, who would replace him?

The odd thing about the recent cabinet scandals is that they took out the two most viable alternative leaders-Michael Wood and Kiri Allan. Wood though was not permanently damaged, but it might take a few years for him to recover politically. He is seen as being on the left of the party. A candidate like him could win Labour's electoral college system while losing the caucus, but the recent rule change that lets 2/3rds of caucus elect a leader without the membership makes that harder. Grant Robertson would be the obvious choice for leader, but he already declined it and it looks like he'll leave politics if Labour loses (since he gave up his electorate seat which means he can leave without a by-election).

There are some newer faces who could be leaders in the future-Kieran McAnulty has the 'Kiwi bloke' charisma and new Police Minister Ginny Andersen looks capable. I doubt they're ready right now though, or would even want to lead a first-term Opposition. If Labour loses they have at least 20 fewer MPs and this could change things too.

If he wants it, he could probaby keep the leadership for quite a while rather than being immediately forced out. Even Bill English though, who got the most votes and seats, did not stay on as leader to the next general election though. It's also possible Hipkins will quit politics after losing.

In any case, no government has lost re-election after one term since the Third Labour Government in 1975. If the economy does improve, then it will be even tougher for Labour to overcome the contrast on an issue they already struggle with.