MS-GOV (Mason-Dixon): Reeves +7
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  MS-GOV (Mason-Dixon): Reeves +7
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Author Topic: MS-GOV (Mason-Dixon): Reeves +7  (Read 267 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: March 16, 2023, 09:45:31 AM »

Reeves (R) 46%
Presley (D) 39%
Undecided 15%

https://magnoliatribune.com/2023/03/16/magnolia-tribune-mason-dixon-poll-reeves-up-7/

Key - This early in the race, a considerable portion of voters are undecided (15%). The highest rates of undecided voters occur among independents (21%), black Mississippians (20%), and women (17%). All three groups presently break, in varying degrees, toward Presley.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2023, 09:47:11 AM »

Safe R
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2023, 10:04:47 AM »


What did I say about 7pt polls it's not Safe R with 7 pt but Reeves got his momentum back but it's a Rally around the flag effect with RS coming home in red states and Biden still has Docugate
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2023, 10:09:00 AM »


What did I say about 7pt polls it's not Safe R with 7 pt but Reeves got his momentum back but it's a Rally around the flag effect with RS coming home in red states and Biden still has Docugate

Bottom line to me is the fact Presley sits at 39%. The lion's share of the 15% undecided will most likely flock towards Reevers in the final weeks, as it's the case in most of the time. My current prediction is 56-42%.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2023, 10:57:01 AM »

Agree with Sir Mohamed,
If a well-known State Attorney General like Jim Hood could not beat Tate Reeves in an Open Seat Race in 2019 Presley ain't going to beat him in a Biden Presidency.

Reeves just has to tie Presley to Biden.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2023, 11:02:19 AM »

Agree with Sir Mohamed,
If a well-known State Attorney General like Jim Hood could not beat Tate Reeves in an Open Seat Race in 2019 Presley ain't going to beat him in a Biden Presidency.

Reeves just has to tie Presley to Biden.

Gubernatorial elections are less nationalized; I even think Beshear is clearly favored, but MS is a different state than KY and incumbency is reversed.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2023, 11:04:58 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2023, 11:08:48 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

I didn't say Presley was favored he is clearly the Dog but Beshear in 2019 wasn't leading he was 4 pts down it's VBM not same day anyways D votes come in slowly


Just like Bevin took the lead and gave it back on VBM

He is a populist WC candidate and WC females vote D, unlike Shawn Wilson that's why Kunce, Brown, Tester have a better chance than D's in TX and FL because blk candidate in red states except GA loses but in 28 Johnson will clearly lose it's a Prez not a Midterm when he defeated Barnes
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2023, 01:58:42 PM »


What did I say about 7pt polls it's not Safe R with 7 pt but Reeves got his momentum back but it's a Rally around the flag effect with RS coming home in red states and Biden still has Docugate

Bottom line to me is the fact Presley sits at 39%. The lion's share of the 15% undecided will most likely flock towards Reevers in the final weeks, as it's the case in most of the time. My current prediction is 56-42%.

Not really true, this is why I put the note at the top. A bunch of the undecideds are demos that lean towards Presley. Not saying Presley will win, but he has a considerable amount of vote that isn't consolidated yet.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2023, 02:05:17 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2023, 02:10:10 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

We gotten so few polls on other than Prez Edays whenever an R is in the lead in a swing state it's Safe R but if a D is in the lead Tossup remember Dr Oz, Lasalt, Masters and Walker

The RS are favored to sweep these races after Docugate but we should at least win 1 of them just like we are fav to hold the 303 map the S is on the line with AZ, MO, MT AND OH, DOCUGATE did hurt Biden in red not blue states there are ongoing investigation in the H

This isn't Lewinsky, these were classified Documents which also hurt US in red not blue states but Co, NV and VA were R in 2000/04 and we lost OH that was the Eday right there


But so far it's hurting black candidates Wilson, Boswell and John Love we still have a chance in MO, KY, MS, OH and MT as wave insurance that's why it's called wave insurance because it's not required to get to 270
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2023, 02:08:47 PM »

Yeah, this isn't happening for Democrats. Which sucks, since Reeves might literally be the worst Governor in the country, even with all the competition he has.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2023, 02:10:57 PM »

Yeah, this isn't happening for Democrats. Which sucks, since Reeves might literally be the worst Governor in the country, even with all the competition he has.


LoL after Docugate RS have regain their advantage in red not blue states
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2023, 03:14:15 PM »

Yeah, it was never going to happen. All this suggests is that Reevers at this point in time - nine months before the election - struggles to consolidate the Republican base. But that's inevitably going to happen in the months and weeks leading up to the election. He may not be that popular, but the state's partisan lean even at the state level is just too much to overcome. I doubt it would even flip with Trump as president in his second term.

Safe Republican.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2023, 06:45:13 PM »

Iím going to actually disagree with the people who think this is Safe R no matter what. I think this race would have been in serious danger of flipping under a Trump presidency, and there is of course precedent for corruption/character being a potent enough combination to defy even unfavorable partisan headwinds (most recently LA-GOV 2015 against another 'pro-life' Democrat, of course).

However, at the end of the day, I think the Reeves camp will run a better campaign than the mess that David Vitter's run for office was, and Reeves's popularity is not (yet) as low as it needs to be for him to lose in MS in this environment. Other factors include MS being more Republican than it was in 2019 and corruption issues having been more and more *normalized* since 2015, in part as a result of the Trump era.

I think Reeves would win by a very underwhelming margin (no more than 4-5 points) if the election were held today, however.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2023, 06:51:47 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2023, 06:56:58 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Yeah, it was never going to happen. All this suggests is that Reevers at this point in time - nine months before the election - struggles to consolidate the Republican base. But that's inevitably going to happen in the months and weeks leading up to the election. He may not be that popular, but the state's partisan lean even at the state level is just too much to overcome. I doubt it would even flip with Trump as president in his second term.

Safe Republican.

LoL it's 7 pts which isn't safe R, why is it called wave insurance it's over 303 in case D's win not for sure upset did you know Liddy Dole was upset by Hagen and McCaskill upset Talent and Jeff Merkley upset Gordan Smith all came after Bank collapse like Sillicon Valley but Biden is still being dogged by Docugate that's why you have conflict in polls but he still leads DeSantis and Trump

7 pts is totally different in TX and FL because DeSantis and Abbott not in MS it's still upset potentially it's 7 mnths til Eday and VBM will be slow in blk areas

Trump and Desantis polls like 60% in FL and TX and in GA Trump is at 41%
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Lincoln General Court Member NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2023, 10:40:31 AM »

I actually think Democrats are more likely to pick this seat up then they are to hold Kentucky, largely because of the corruption issues, and Reeves's unpopularity.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2023, 10:45:14 AM »

It's 7 pts yeah Reeves like RS are favorite but it's not over just like it's 7 pts in FL

LA is Gone
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2023, 10:50:28 AM »

I actually think Democrats are more likely to pick this seat up then they are to hold Kentucky, largely because of the corruption issues, and Reeves's unpopularity.

What? Beshear has over 60% approval rating and incumbency advantage. I feel like this post is going to age like milk.

Beshear might narrowly lose in the end, but Pressey will for sure do worse. Even unpopular incumbents in states with a strong partisan lean can win reelection. See OK in 2022 or CT 2014.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2023, 12:51:26 PM »

New Poll: Mississippi Governor by Mason-Dixon on 2023-03-09

Summary: D: 39%, R: 46%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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