MS-GOV (Mason-Dixon): Reeves +7

[MT Treasurer]

I’m going to actually disagree with the people who think this is Safe R no matter what. I think this race would have been in serious danger of flipping under a Trump presidency, and there is of course precedent for corruption/character being a potent enough combination to defy even unfavorable partisan headwinds (most recently LA-GOV 2015 against another 'pro-life' Democrat, of course).

However, at the end of the day, I think the Reeves camp will run a better campaign than the mess that David Vitter's run for office was, and Reeves's popularity is not (yet) as low as it needs to be for him to lose in MS in this environment. Other factors include MS being more Republican than it was in 2019 and corruption issues having been more and more *normalized* since 2015, in part as a result of the Trump era.

I think Reeves would win by a very underwhelming margin (no more than 4-5 points) if the election were held today, however.