UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

It's also worth posting Ballot Box Scotland's preview of Girvan & South Carrick.

[YL]

Girvan & South Carrick transfers

	Count1	Alba	Count2	Lib Dem	Count3	Lab	Count4
		transfers		transfers		transfers
Con	1315	8	1323	23	1346	151	1497
SNP	778	24	802	22	824	150	974
Lab	499	8	507	44	551
LibDem	108	5	113
Alba	70
nt		25	25	24	49	250	299

[CumbrianLefty]

That result in Ayrshire continues the SNP losing streak in council by-elections - it is now 2Con 1Ind in that division. The initially odd looking changes are due to Indies polling strongly in 2022.

[afleitch]

That result in Ayrshire continues the SNP losing streak in council by-elections - it is now 2Con 1Ind in that division. The initially odd looking changes are due to Indies polling strongly in 2022.

And is also curiously the SNP's best result since 2007 in that ward. Such are Indy interventions.

[YL]

Thursday 28 September

Andrew Teale's preview

Highland; Tain & Easter Ross

(see also Ballot Box Scotland's preview)

First preferences:
Ind Ross 1022 (41.5%, new)
Lib Dem 603 (24.5%, +3.0)
SNP 464 (18.8%, -11.8)
Con 207 (8.4%, -2.2)
Lab 88 (3.6%, new)
Green 56 (2.3%, new)
Libertarian 23 (0.9%, new)

Ind Ross gain from Lib Dem

Wolverhampton; Bushbury South & Low Hill

Lab 686 (59.2%, -5.4)
Con 256 (22.1%, -0.5)
Lib Dem 139 (12.0%, -0.8)
Green 78 (6.7%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab hold

North Yorkshire; Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley

Con 954 (48.4%, +8.9)
Lib Dem 747 (37.9%, +14.2)
Green 243 (12.3%, new)
Yorkshire Party 27 (1.4%, new)
(changes from 2022; note that the Conservative candidate this time stood as an Independent then and got 28.5%)

Con hold

South Norfolk; Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross

Lib Dem 667 (37.1%, -11.4)
Con 434 (24.2%, -10.8)
Ind Legg 404 (22.5%, new)
Lab 164 (9.1%, -7.4)
Green 128 (7.1%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

South Norfolk; South Wymondham

Lib Dem 286 (35.0%, -12.4)
Con 268 (32.8%, +4.9)
Lab 173 (21.2%, -3.5)
Green 89 (10.9%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

[CumbrianLefty]

Highland was an Independent gain from LibDem, S Norfolk 2 LibDem holds (though one was close)

[YL]

Tain & Easter Ross transfers

	C1	Libert	C2	Green	C3	Lab	C4	Con	C5	SNP	C6
		trans		trans		trans		trans		trans
Ross	1022	3	1025	8	1033	25	1058	73	1131	181	1312
LibDem	603	2	605	13	618	26	644	61	705	96	801
SNP	464	3	467	24	491	15	506	8	514
Con	207	3	210	0	210	6	216
Lab	88	2	90	6	96
Green	56	2	58
Libert	23
nt		8	8	7	15	24	39	74	113	237	350

[Torrain]

Ah, what would Highlands Council be without its enduring love of independent candidates.

SNP topped the ballot for this ward in 2022, and have now gone from first to third place. The Highlands constituency this seat sits in was a narrow Lib Dem victory in 2019, and an SNP notional on new boundaries - going to be an interesting race next year.

[YL]

Wednesday 4 October

Andrew Teale's preview

Haringey, South Tottenham

Lab 1268 (68.2%, +4.6)
Con 286 (15.4%, +0.4)
Green 235 (12.6%, -3.3)
Lib Dem 71 (3.8%, -2.2)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

Haringey, White Hart Lane

Lab 1081 (59.0%, +1.6)
Con 289 (15.8%, +3.7)
Green 247 (13.5%, new)
Lib Dem 215 (11.7%, +1.4)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

[YL]

Thursday 5 October

Featuring a visit to Tamworth two weeks before the main event there...

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Special)

Lambeth; Vauxhall

Lab 595 (42.0%, -11.1)
Lib Dem 395 (27.9%), +16.8
Green 256 (18.1%, -2.1)
Con 160 (11.3%, -4.3)
Socialist Party (GP) 9 (0.6%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

Tamworth; Amington

Lab 669 (42.9%, -7.8)
Con 526 (33.7%, -15.6)
Ind Cook 242 (15.5%, new)
Reform UK 98 (6.3%, new)
UKIP 25 (1.6%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Lab hold

[Oryxslayer]

Came here to post the Tamworth results, just going to instead say Labour holding their vote much better than the Tories in this context is a strong portent for the 19th.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some have pointed out the two "other" right wing candidates very likely helped Labour and hurt the Tories in that byelection - but both those parties are standing the week after next, as well.

Given how the vacancy came about, Labour must be pretty content.

[YL]

Some have pointed out the two "other" right wing candidates very likely helped Labour and hurt the Tories in that byelection - but both those parties are standing the week after next, as well.

Given how the vacancy came about, Labour must be pretty content.

Not just both those parties: both those candidates.

The Independent, though, who is a former Tory councillor for the ward, isn’t standing in the Westminster by-election. So the result perhaps isn’t quite as good for Labour’s prospects in two weeks’ time as first impressions suggest, but OTOH it would be over-simplistic to just add her vote to the Tory’s and on balance I’d agree that it’s a decent result for the red team.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Certainly in the locals this year, Labour did much better in straight fights with the Tories than in ones with (largely ex-Tory) independents standing as well. That would be consistent with an electorate wanting to hurt the Tories but not being certain which party was best placed to do that.

[YL]

Thursday 12 October

Andrew Teale's preview

Suffolk County Council; Woodbridge

Lib Dem 990 (51.2%, -12.3)
Con 642 (33.2%, -3.4)
Lab 301 (15.6%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem hold

Cheltenham; Prestbury

People Against Bureaucracy 644 (37.2%, -8.6 on 2022, -12.8 on 2021)
Green 484 (27.9%, +9.6 on 2022, didn't stand in 2021)
Lib Dem 346 (20.0%, +5.4 on 2022, +0.3 on 2021)
Con 258 (14.9%, -6.5 on 2022, -15.4 on 2021)
(NB Cheltenham elects by halves and had no election in 2023)

People Against Bureaucracy hold

[YL]

As has been commented on Twitter, a bit of a swing towards bureaucracy there.

[YL]

Another sideshow today.

Thursday 19 October

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Specials)

Shropshire; Alveley & Claverley

Lib Dem 662 (58.8%, +36.6)
Con 408 (36.3%, -33.0)
Lab 55 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Surrey County Council; Horsleys

Residents for Guildford and Villages 1095 (39.3%, -8.5)
Lib Dem 1023 (36.7%, +25.2)
Con 569 (20.4%, -17.0)
Lab 99 (3.6%, +0.3)
(changes from 2021)

RGV hold

Worcestershire County Council; Warndon Parish

Green 1139 (44.2%, +28.7)
Con 623 (24.2%, -36.9)
Lib Dem 579 (22.5%, +16.3)
Lab 237 (9.2%, -7.5)
(changes from 2021)

Green gain from Con

Worcester; Warndon Parish South

Green 733 (53.7%, -11.6 on 2023, +36.2 on 2022)
Con 340 (24.9%, +2.5 on 2023, -28.4 on 2022)
Lab 171 (12.5%, +2.6 on 2023, -11.1 on 2022)
Lib Dem 92 (6.2%, +3.9 on 2023, +0.6 on 2022)
Reform UK 29 (2.1%, new)
(Worcester elects by thirds, but this is a two member ward and had no election in 2021)

Green gain from Con

[Duke of York]

Another sideshow today.

Thursday 19 October

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Specials)

Shropshire, Alveley & Claverley

Lib Dem 662 (58.8%, +36.6)
Con 408 (36.3%, -33.0)
Lab 55 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Surrey County Council; Horsleys

counts Friday

Worcestershire County Council; Warndon Parish

Green 1139 (44.2%, +28.7)
Con 623 (24.2%, -36.9)
Lib Dem 579 (22.5%, +16.3)
Lab 237 (9.2%, -7.5)
(changes from 2021)

Green gain from Con

Worcester; Warndon Parish South

Green 733 (53.7%, -11.6 on 2023, +36.2 on 2022)
Con 340 (24.9%, +2.5 on 2023, -28.4 on 2022)
Lab 171 (12.5%, +2.6 on 2023, -11.1 on 2022)
Lib Dem 92 (6.2%, +3.9 on 2023, +0.6 on 2022)
Reform UK 29 (2.1%, new)
(Worcester elects by thirds, but this is a two member ward and had no election in 2021)

Green gain from Con

wow. Conservatives continue their fall. Things keep up the way they are the local elections in May will be a disaster as well and the general election a Labour mega tsunami.

[somerandomth]

Another sideshow today.

Thursday 19 October

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Specials)

Shropshire; Alveley & Claverley

Lib Dem 662 (58.8%, +36.6)
Con 408 (36.3%, -33.0)
Lab 55 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Surrey County Council; Horsleys

counts Friday

Worcestershire County Council; Warndon Parish

Green 1139 (44.2%, +28.7)
Con 623 (24.2%, -36.9)
Lib Dem 579 (22.5%, +16.3)
Lab 237 (9.2%, -7.5)
(changes from 2021)

Green gain from Con

Worcester; Warndon Parish South

Green 733 (53.7%, -11.6 on 2023, +36.2 on 2022)
Con 340 (24.9%, +2.5 on 2023, -28.4 on 2022)
Lab 171 (12.5%, +2.6 on 2023, -11.1 on 2022)
Lib Dem 92 (6.2%, +3.9 on 2023, +0.6 on 2022)
Reform UK 29 (2.1%, new)
(Worcester elects by thirds, but this is a two member ward and had no election in 2021)

Green gain from Con

Omg Lib Dems gaining in the by election!!! /j

[CumbrianLefty]

Horrific results for the Tories all round, almost as if the parliamentary by-elections aren't a fluke.

[YL]

Thursday 26 October

Andrew Teale's preview

Herefordshire; Golden Valley South

Ind Engel 548 (61.2%, new)
Con 249 (27.8%, -7.4)
Lab 34 (3.8%, new)
Ind Jones 34 (3.8%, new)
Lib Dem 30 (3.4%, -9.1)
(changes from 2023)

"Ind hold"

Coventry; Earlsdon

Lab 1388 (43.0%, -9.3 on 2023, -10.0 on 2022, -0.6 on 2021)
Con 1017 (31.5%, +2.3 on 2023, +2.5 on 2022, -4.0 on 2021)
Lib Dem 489 (15.1%, +7.8 on 2023, +7.2 on 2022, +5.3 on 2021)
Green 193 (6.0%, -1.0 on 2023, +1.3 on 2022, -0.1 on 2021)
Coventry Citizens 107 (3.3%, +0.4 on 2023, -0.1 on 2022, -0.9 on 2021)
TUSC 37 (1.1%, -0.2 on 2023, +0.2 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021)

Lab hold

Waltham Forest; Higham Hill

Lab 924 (57.3%, -3.6)
Lib Dem 268 (16.6%, +7.0)
Green 198 (12.3%, -7.8)
TUSC 144 (8.9%, +4.1)
Con 78 (4.8%, +0.2)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

Lancashire County Council; Burnley Central West

Green 630 (32.4%, +1.4)
Lab 583 (30.0%, +14.7)
Con 574 (29.5%, +5.7)
Lib Dem 156 (8.0%, -3.1)
(changes from 2021)

Green hold

Burnley; Trinity

Green 347 (59.5%, -4.5 on 2023, -7.2 on 2022, +2.1 on 2021)
Lab 163 (28.0%, +1.0 on 2023, +4.1 on 2022, +6.1 on 2021)
Con 73 (12.5%, +3.5 on 2023, +3.2 on 2022, -2.2 on 2021)

Green hold

[YL]

A less bad week for the Tories, though they didn't have any seats to lose.

I suspect a student turnout effect in Earlsdon caused by it being before this year's electoral register comes out: people will say that students don't vote in local elections, and of course there's some truth to this, but some do, and in a place as student heavy as Earlsdon they will have an effect and one which would normally help Labour.

Higham Hill is an unusually good result for TUSC; I wonder whether there's a small Gaza effect there?

Fellow cricket followers may know the winner in Golden Valley South as the journalist and former Wisden editor Matthew Engel.

[Wiswylfen]

It depends on whether you make an effort. See: Labour in Jesmond.

[CumbrianLefty]

TUSC had one of their best known figures (I appreciate such things are relative) standing, and along with the LibDems they appeared to put a bit of effort into a normally monolithic Labour ward.

(in recent years anyway, it was in fact LibDem in ye olde pre-coalition days)

[JimJamUK]

Lancashire County Council; Burnley Central West

Green 630 (32.4%, +1.4)
Lab 583 (30.0%, +14.7)
Con 574 (29.5%, +5.7)
Lib Dem 156 (8.0%, -3.1)
(changes from 2021)

Green hold

Burnley; Trinity

Green 347 (+2.1 on 2021)
Lab 163 (+6.1 on 2021)
Con 73 (-2.2 on 2021)

Green hold

Interesting that the swing was noticeably different in the country council ward to (one) of its constituents district wards. it’s quite a demographically and especially politically polarised county council ward and seems to have gotten even more so yesterday.