UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

I wonder why Conservatives gained a seat in Swindon.

I don't know, but possibly it's to do with people no longer having a Conservative council to protest against.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a ward that has returned Tories more often than not.

And apparently the Labour candidate was from a bit outside the area.

[CumbrianLefty]

<bump>

[somerandomth]

(I know the full results haven't been posted here yet, but I just wanted to get in here and say that the by-elections in Plymouth seemed to suggest Labour was certainly doing decently and basically hit expectations but nothing more than that. Turnout was especially low in the safe-labour ward of St Peter and the Waterfront, which may have led to the larger drop in the Labour vote than some expected. In Plymstock the result was certainly good for what used to be a safe-Tory ward but slightly down on the 2023 locals)

[YL]

Here are last week's raw results.  I haven't had time to work out vote share changes; several of them are from previous multi-vacancy elections which always complicates this.

Thursday 27 July

East Sussex County Council; Heathfield & Mayfield

Green 1373 (61.5%)
Con 858 (38.5%)

Green gain from Con

Buckinghamshire; Denham

Con 848 (42.2%)
Lib Dem 634 (31.5%)
Ind Harding 404 (20.1%)
Lab 125 (6.2%)

Con hold

Plymouth; Plymstock Dunstone

Lab 1072 (33.2%)
Con 919 (28.4%)
Lib Dem 596 (18.4%)
Ind Stickland 480 (14.9%)
Green 97 (3.0%)
Heritage 55 (1.7%)
TUSC 12 (0.4%)

Lab gain from Con

Plymouth; St Peter & the Waterfront

Lab 1126 (48.0%)
Con 488 (20.8%)
Green 206 (8.8%)
Lib Dem 175 (7.5%)
Reform UK 174 (7.4%)
Ind Singh 126 (5.4%)
TUSC 52 (2.2%)

Lab hold

Warrington; Poulton North

Lab 999 (56.3%)
Con 606 (34.2%)
Lib Dem 168 (9.5%)

Lab hold

[YL]

Thursday 3 August

Andrew Teale's preview

East Sussex County Council; Meads

Lib Dem 1649 (50.0%, +10.0)
Con 1367 (41.4%, -4.2)
Lab 157 (4.8%, -1.1)
Green 127 (3.8%, -2.3)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Norfolk County Council; Freebridge Lynn

Lib Dem 669 (38.4%, new)
Con 539 (31.0%, -33.7)
Green 418 (24.0%, +4.3)
Lab 115 (6.6%, -9.0)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Reading; Norcot

Lab 929 (58.2%, +0.2)
Lib Dem 280 (17.5%, +11.4)
Con 209 (13.1%, -4.8)
Green 101 (6.3%, -3.6)
Ind Gulliver 49 (3.1%, -0.3)
TUSC 28 (1.8%, -0.1)
(changes from 2023)

Lab hold

Dudley; Cradley & Wollescote

Lib Dem 1321 (52.2%, +14.3 on 2023, +21.4 on 2022, +41.3 on 2021)
Lab 771 (30.5%, -8.2 on 2023, -8.3 on 2022, -8.3 on 2021)
Con 353 (14.0%, -4.9 on 2023, -16.4 on 2022, -30.0 on 2021)
Green 79 (3.1%, -0.2 on 2023, n/a on 2022 or 2021)
TUSC 5 (0.2%, -0.7 on 2023, n/a on 2022 or 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Lab

[YL]

The East Sussex result means that that council is now formally in No Overall Control, though the Tories still have exactly half the seats.

The Dudley result brings an end to a period where the Lib Dems had no councillors at all in any of the four Black Country boroughs.

[CumbrianLefty]

Amazingly consistent Labour scores for that Dudley ward in 2021-23!

EDIT: is it possible to add the changes since 2022 for the Reading result as well?

[YL]

Thursday 10 August

Andrew Teale's preview

Somerset; Castle Cary

Lib Dem 1247 (54.8%, +10.4)
Con 614 (27.0%, -15.7)
Green 415 (18.2%, +5.3)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; this is a two seat division and each party won one seat in 2022

Havering; Upminster

Upminster and Cranham Residents 1642 (63.2%, +0.1)
Con 421 (16.2%, -3.7)
Lab 234 (9.0%, -0.4)
Ind Durant 150 (5.8%, new)
Green 115 (4.4%, -3.1)
Lib Dem 35 (1.3%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

UCRA hold

Wychavon; Evesham South

Green 319 (45.2%, -4.0)
Con 177 (25.1%, +1.2)
Ind Haines 82 (11.6%, new)
Lab 79 (11.2%, new)
Ind Snape 36 (5.1%, new)
Lib Dem 12 (1.7%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Green hold

[CumbrianLefty]

Another week with no Tory wins.

And looking at the vacancies coming up in the next few weeks, that could well continue.

[YL]

Thursday 17 August

Andrew Teale's preview

Middlesbrough, Ayresome

Ind Young 318 (36.1%, new)
Lab 294 (33.4%, -13.7)
Lib Dem 201 (22.8%, +14.6)
Green 32 (3.6%, new)
Con 30 (3.4%, -14.8)
Ind Rathmell 5 (0.6%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Ind Young gain from Lab

St Albans, Marshalswick East & Jersey Farm

Lib Dem 774 (46.0%, -3.9)
Con 661 (39.3%, +5.3)
Green 102 (6.1%, -2.3)
Lab 82 (4.9%, -2.8)
Ind Posner 62 (3.7%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Lib Dem hold

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour came closer to holding that Boro vacancy than most thought likely at one stage.

[YL]

Thursday 24 August

Andrew Teale's preview

Bristol; Bishopston & Ashley Down

Green 1294 (50.2%, -3.2)
Lab 981 (38.1%, +10.6)
Lib Dem 184 (7.1%, -5.5)
Con 91 (3.5%, -3.0)
TUSC 26 (1.0%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Green hold

Dudley; St James's

Lab 860 (49.3%, -4.6 on 2023, +3.2 on 2022, +9.7 on 2021)
Con 719 (41.2%, +0.6 on 2023, -5.2 on 2022, -12.6 on 2021)
Ind Tasker 84 (4.8%, new)
Green 50 (2.9%, new)
Lib Dem 32 (1.8%, -3.7 on 2023, -5.7 on 2022, -4.7 on 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Isle of Wight; Wootton Bridge

Lib Dem 475 (47.9%, new)
Con 291 (29.3%, -2.5)
Vectis 178 (17.9%, -29.4)
Green 48 (4.8%, -8.7)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Vectis

[CumbrianLefty]

Bristol result is actually more interesting than it initially looks - Labour would have a good chance of regaining largest party status next year on that showing.

[Coldstream]

Bristol result is actually more interesting than it initially looks - Labour would have a good chance of regaining largest party status next year on that showing.

I wouldn’t read too much in to it, with the students away the majority in Bishopston was always going to plummet. Still though, it’s not good news for the Greens - suggests our local vote is holding up much better than feared there.

[EastAnglianLefty]

According to figures from the last census, the population is only about 10% students (and hence the electorate will be substantially less again.) By Bristol standards that's not that studenty and I don't think that will have had a big impact on the result.

[Wiswylfen]

For anyone curious as to why the Dudley result was so close, and why it voted Conservative last year:

https://twitter.com/edsummerell/status/1694857558475817254

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, a privately-built and comparatively prosperous area with a very heavy White Flight feel as a minority element in a ward that is otherwise dominated by low-turnout council estates is a common theme in the Black Country wards with especially curious local politics: the infamous Princes End ward in Sandwell is another.

[CumbrianLefty]

And the result not mentioned yet was widely expected to be a Tory gain - for them to actually drop slightly in vote share is a pretty dismal result in the circumstances.

[Coldstream]

According to figures from the last census, the population is only about 10% students (and hence the electorate will be substantially less again.) By Bristol standards that's not that studenty and I don't think that will have had a big impact on the result.

I mean, when I was an undergrad (16-18) I lived in that ward. It was pretty studenty then. It contains 2/3 of the Gloucester Road.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, a privately-built and comparatively prosperous area with a very heavy White Flight feel as a minority element in a ward that is otherwise dominated by low-turnout council estates is a common theme in the Black Country wards with especially curious local politics: the infamous Princes End ward in Sandwell is another.

The inverse of this is not uncommon either: a ward in which Labour can be randomly much more competitive than you'd assume at first glance especially against divided opposition, and it turns out that it contains a better off and heavily RTBed council estate or three. These are o/c often much more useful for Labour in local elections than poorer ones with a higher proportion in social housing for obvious turnout related reasons.

[YL]

According to figures from the last census, the population is only about 10% students (and hence the electorate will be substantially less again.) By Bristol standards that's not that studenty and I don't think that will have had a big impact on the result.

I mean, when I was an undergrad (16-18) I lived in that ward. It was pretty studenty then. It contains 2/3 of the Gloucester Road.

Actually the NS-SEC figures in the 2021 census show it as 17.3% "Full Time Students".

Central 50.6%
Clifton Down 32.7%
Cotham 31.7%
Hotwells & Harbourside 28.4%
Clifton 28.2%
Stoke Bishop 26.6% (lots of University owned accommodation here)
Lawrence Hill 17.9%
Bishopston & Ashley Down 17.3%
Ashley 17.1%
Horfield 16.2%
Redland 14.8%
Frome Vale 14.1% (UWE I imagine)
others below this (including everything south of the river)

So unless student turnout in local elections is unusually high in that area I wouldn't think their absence would make that much difference.

[YL]

And the result not mentioned yet was widely expected to be a Tory gain - for them to actually drop slightly in vote share is a pretty dismal result in the circumstances.

The other thing about this week's results, including the Wight one, is the continued tendency for the Lib Dems to either win or get almost nothing.  That has also been noted in Parliamentary by-elections in this Parliament, and while I doubt it'll be as close to being true in a General Election it could lead to them doing unusually well at turning votes into seats for a third party in an FPTP system.

[CumbrianLefty]

And the result not mentioned yet was widely expected to be a Tory gain - for them to actually drop slightly in vote share is a pretty dismal result in the circumstances.

The other thing about this week's results, including the Wight one, is the continued tendency for the Lib Dems to either win or get almost nothing.  That has also been noted in Parliamentary by-elections in this Parliament, and while I doubt it'll be as close to being true in a General Election it could lead to them doing unusually well at turning votes into seats for a third party in an FPTP system.

Still a remarkable stat that the Chester byelection is the only exception this parliament to the LibDems either winning or losing their deposit. They did put some effort in to the Dudley vacancy this week by all accounts, which makes their last place finish all the more striking.

[Coldstream]

According to figures from the last census, the population is only about 10% students (and hence the electorate will be substantially less again.) By Bristol standards that's not that studenty and I don't think that will have had a big impact on the result.

I mean, when I was an undergrad (16-18) I lived in that ward. It was pretty studenty then. It contains 2/3 of the Gloucester Road.

Actually the NS-SEC figures in the 2021 census show it as 17.3% "Full Time Students".

Central 50.6%
Clifton Down 32.7%
Cotham 31.7%
Hotwells & Harbourside 28.4%
Clifton 28.2%
Stoke Bishop 26.6% (lots of University owned accommodation here)
Lawrence Hill 17.9%
Bishopston & Ashley Down 17.3%
Ashley 17.1%
Horfield 16.2%
Redland 14.8%
Frome Vale 14.1% (UWE I imagine)
others below this (including everything south of the river)

So unless student turnout in local elections is unusually high in that area I wouldn't think their absence would make that much difference.

Turnout is very high in Bristol in general, parts of neighbouring Redland had over 60% turnout in 2021.

The Green majority will shoot back up in May 2024 to similar to 2021 levels once the students are back in, happy to be proven wrong - but I won’t be.