UK local by-elections, 2023

[EastAnglianLefty]

- The Labour lead is partially inflated by 2019 Tory voters answering "don't know" in polls but will come back to the Tories in a vote. Personally I think in an general election Labour tomorrow would probably win by 13-16.

But you wouldn’t expect such people to vote in local elections, especially by-elections. If you’re unhappy with your party enough to say you wouldn’t currently vote for them, you’re probably not part of the small minority of people still voting for them at every opportunity The issue is that Labour rarely get the sort of swing to them the national polls imply, while the Tories tend to do poorly (but not as poorly as the polls imply). As I said, some of this will be down to by-elections factors that won’t be replicated in the local elections of a general election, but even then I’m not sure current voting intention is quite as dire for the Conservatives as polling suggests.

It's worth pointing out that turnout in a lot of contests has been dire even by the standards of local by-elections - sub-20% in a lot of cases. Under those circumstances, most of the electorate are the people who always vote, a lot of them are strong partisans and there's a higher likelihood that they're not representative of broader bulk of the electorate who will definitely vote in the general election.

Which doesn't necessarily mean that the results are irrelevant, but I'd rely on them even less than I would have with local by-elections in previous years.

[CumbrianLefty]

And with such low turnouts they may well skew even more to older voters, and we all know what that tends to mean in recent years.

[YL]

Thursday 20 April

Andrew Teale's previews

Enfield; Bullsmoor

Lab 1056 (55.8%, +4.6)
Con 686 (36.2%, +6.4)
Green 81 (4.3%, -5.1)
Lib Dem 50 (2.6%, -5.0)
TUSC 20 (1.1%, -0.9)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Lab hold

Warrington; Latchford West

Lab 662 (40.8%, -6.8)
Con 488 (30.1%, -11.4)
Lib Dem 274 (16.9%, +6.1)
Ind Bowles 199 (12.3%, "new"; see below)
(changes from 2021 top vote; NB Ind Bowles was a Conservative candidate then)

Lab hold

[CumbrianLefty]

Both contests were in Labour-run councils with a less than stellar recent reputation - given that, they will likely be fairly content with those results.

[YL]

Just one this week...

Thursday 27 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Swansea; Penderry

Lab 485 (53.5%, -25.7)
Lib Dem 274 (30.2%, new)
Con 71 (7.8%, -13.0)
Green 42 (4.6%, new)
Plaid Cymru 34 (3.8%, new)
(changes on 2022 top vote)

Lab hold

[CumbrianLefty]

There are lots of local by-elections next week alongside the scheduled elections, of course.

[YL]

There are lots of local by-elections next week alongside the scheduled elections, of course.

Yes, a few in county councils and a couple in unitaries which aren't up.  There's also the usual crop of double vacancy elections in wards in thirds councils where there's a casual vacancy.

I doubt I'll have time next Friday to post anything about them, but that shouldn't stop anyone else...

Edit: I think this is the list of by-elections in councils which don't have any other elections, based on a list in another place:

Cambridgeshire County Council; Arbury
Cambridgeshire County Council; Soham South & Haddenham
Durham; Chester-le-Street East
Essex County Council; Laindon Park & Fryerns
Gloucestershire County Council; Highnam
Hampshire County Council; Purbrook & Stakes South
Kent County Council; Sheppey
Lincolnshire County Council; Eagle & Hykeham West
Norfolk County Council; Swaffham
Nottinghamshire County Council; Kirkby South
Suffolk County Council; Felixstowe Coastal
Suffolk County Council; Priory Heath
Surrey County Council; Walton South & Oatlands
West Sussex County Council; East Grinstead Meridian
Westmorland & Furness; Old Barrow & Hindpool (this council's first ever by-election)
Worcestershire County Council; Malvern Chase

(Colour coding refers to defending party; NB the green is not the Greens, but the Ashfield Independents.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Just one this week...

Thursday 27 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Swansea; Penderry

Lab 485 (53.5%, -25.7)
Lib Dem 274 (30.2%, new)
Con 71 (7.8%, -13.0)
Green 42 (4.6%, new)
Plaid Cymru 34 (3.8%, new)
(changes on 2022 top vote)

Lab hold

Not untypical opportunist LibDem raid gets some return.

Likely to return to ultra-safe Labour come the next regular election, though.

[Blair]

Will be interesting if the greens do well in Tory held seats.

I still believe there best chance of a parliamentary gain in 2024 will be a Conservative held seat; ofc people forget Pavilion was a relatively Tory friendly seat!

[CumbrianLefty]

There are lots of local by-elections next week alongside the scheduled elections, of course.

Yes, a few in county councils and a couple in unitaries which aren't up.  There's also the usual crop of double vacancy elections in wards in thirds councils where there's a casual vacancy.

I doubt I'll have time next Friday to post anything about them, but that shouldn't stop anyone else...

Edit: I think this is the list of by-elections in councils which don't have any other elections, based on a list in another place:

Cambridgeshire County Council; Arbury
Cambridgeshire County Council; Soham South & Haddenham
Durham; Chester-le-Street East
Essex County Council; Laindon Park & Fryerns
Gloucestershire County Council; Highnam
Hampshire County Council; Purbrook & Stakes South
Kent County Council; Sheppey
Lincolnshire County Council; Eagle & Hykeham West
Norfolk County Council; Swaffham
Nottinghamshire County Council; Kirkby South
Suffolk County Council; Felixstowe Coastal
Suffolk County Council; Priory Heath
Surrey County Council; Walton South & Oatlands
West Sussex County Council; East Grinstead Meridian
Westmorland & Furness; Old Barrow & Hindpool (this council's first ever by-election)
Worcestershire County Council; Malvern Chase

(Colour coding refers to defending party; NB the green is not the Greens, but the Ashfield Independents.)

Results of the above:

Cambs CC: Lab hold Arbury, Con hold Soham
Durham UA: Lab gain from Con
Essex CC: Lab hold (their seat in a split Lab/Con division)
Gloucs CC: Con hold
Hants CC: Con hold
Kent CC: Con hold (a lucky one this, anti-Tory vote almost comically split)
Lincs CC: Con hold
Norfolk CC: Con hold
Notts CC: Ashfield Ind hold
Suffolk CC: Lab hold Priory, Felixstowe a LibDem gain from Con
Surrey CC: LibDem gain from Con
W Sussex CC: Con hold
West & Furn UA: Lab hold
Worcs CC: Green gain from LibDem (by 3 votes over Tories)

Tories hold most of their defences, but significant swings against in many of them.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1657013571371298818

[CumbrianLefty]

Says he will resign his Salford seat "as soon as possible".

(Labour won the same ward last week)

[YL]

Back to by-elections, with an unusual Wednesday scheduling.

Wednesday 17 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Stroud; Painswick & Upton

Green 1168 (45.9%, +11.9)
Con 817 (32.1%, -10.3)
Lib Dem 381 (15.0%, new)
Lab 180 (7.1%, -16.5)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Green gain from Con

[YL]

I think Greens will be happy with that in a council where they provide the leadership.

The numbers probably look worse than they really are for Labour: it's not exactly an area where they would be expected to do well, and in 2021 there were two Greens and one Labour candidate for a three seat ward, so many voters will presumably have gone Green/Green/Lab then and Green now.

NB there are two sets of figures circulating on Twitter for this, but I checked the council's Tweet with the declaration, and the Tory vote is clearly 817, not 877 as in the other version.

[CumbrianLefty]

This result means the "Green wave" from Stroud has reached the very edge of Gloucester.

I wonder if they might start to have a go in the city itself?

(especially given Labour's endemic and long standing underperformance there at local level)

[JimJamUK]

This result means the "Green wave" from Stroud has reached the very edge of Gloucester.

I wonder if they might start to have a go in the city itself?

(especially given Labour's endemic and long standing underperformance there at local level)

The Lib Dems success in the city means it will probably be hard for the Greens to get much of a foothold in Gloucester. The Greens are well organised in Stroud and the demographics are largely very favourable to them which is not the case in Gloucester.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but *this* bit of Stroud is much more like Gloucester - if you get my drift.

[YL]

Yes, but *this* bit of Stroud is much more like Gloucester - if you get my drift.

Upton yes, but I think the rest of the ward fits more with Stroud and the Five Valleys.

[MaxQue]

Yes, but *this* bit of Stroud is much more like Gloucester - if you get my drift.

Yes, but the LDs are quite more organized in Gloucester than in Stroud and Greens struggle against LDs in the SW in general (look at Bath).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Painswick - which is ridiculously well-heeled - is more like places a little further east, socially anyway.

[icc]

Yes, but *this* bit of Stroud is much more like Gloucester - if you get my drift.

Upton yes, but I think the rest of the ward fits more with Stroud and the Five Valleys.

Yeah, I was gonna say. Upton St Leonards is basically Gloucester overspill (though very much 'not Gloucester' in the minds of its residents), but most of the ward is nothing like the city - can you imagine telling someone in Painswick that their town was similar to Gloucester? Lol.

[CumbrianLefty]

I was originally from another village on the outskirts of Gloucester, so understand what you mean as far as Upton St Leonards is concerned.

But always thought Painswick was at least as Gloucester facing as Stroud. There's a good chance the Tory vote actually held up better there anyway

[YL]

Another oddity, and not one that'll tell us much about UK politics in general...

Monday 22 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Isles of Scilly, St Mary's

Ind Peacock 301 (67.6%)
Ind Jones 144 (32.4%)

[CumbrianLefty]

Not sure if there has ever been a "party political" election there at council level.

[YL]

Back to Thursdays, and a rebel Labour councillor standing for re-election against his old party.

Thursday 25 May

Andrew Teale's preview

North Yorkshire; Eastfield

Ind Randerson 499 (46.4%, "new")
Lib Dem 281 (26.1%, new)
Lab 169 (15.7%, -57.6)
Con 69 (6.4%, -16.0)
Ind Thorne 39 (3.6%, new)
Green 19 (1.8%, -2.5)
(changes from 2022; note that Ind Randerson was the Labour candidate then)

Ind Randerson gain from Lab