UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

Lancashire County Council; Burnley Central West

Green 630 (32.4%, +1.4)
Lab 583 (30.0%, +14.7)
Con 574 (29.5%, +5.7)
Lib Dem 156 (8.0%, -3.1)
(changes from 2021)

Green hold

Burnley; Trinity

Green 347 (+2.1 on 2021)
Lab 163 (+6.1 on 2021)
Con 73 (-2.2 on 2021)

Green hold

Interesting that the swing was noticeably different in the country council ward to (one) of its constituents district wards. it’s quite a demographically and especially politically polarised county council ward and seems to have gotten even more so yesterday.

This is at least partly to do with the disappearance of the Burnley and Padiham Independent Party, who got 17.5% in 2021 in the county council division but much less in Trinity ward (and hadn't stood since).  The Labour candidate in the county council election is actually a councillor in another Burnley ward (also overlapping with the county division) elected under that label.

[YL]

I suspect there might be some low turnouts in these given the weather today, though none of them are in the worst affected areas.

Thursday 2 November

Andrew Teale's preview

Rotherham; Kilnhurst & Swinton East

Lab 810 (64.6%, +7.1)
Con 293 (23.4%, -7.3)
Reform UK 58 (4.6%, new)
Yorkshire Party 38 (3.0%, new)
Lib Dem 30 (2.4%, -4.1)
Green 25 (2.0%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Lab hold

Trafford; Bucklow St Martins

Lab 794 (62.2%, -3.3)
Con 284 (22.3%, +3.4)
Reform UK 82 (6.4%, new)
Green 80 (6.3%, -3.7)
Lib Dem 36 (2.8%, -2.8)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab hold

Buckinghamshire; Buckingham East

Lib Dem 690 (39.8%, +29.3)
Con 593 (34.2%, -5.5)
Lab 371 (21.4%, +7.3)
Green 81 (4.7%, -5.4)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 2 Con, 1 Lib Dem

Argyll & Bute; South Kintyre

First preferences:
Ind Kelly 913 (57.7%, new)
SNP 271 (17.1%, -15.7)
Con 208 (13.1%, -9.4)
Lib Dem 183 (11.6%, +2.8)
Freedom Alliance 7 (0.4%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Ind hold (on first count)

Melton; Asfordby

Lab 163 (34.1%, new)
Con 123 (25.7%, +1.6)
Ind Faulkner 100 (20.9%, new)
Green 92 (19.2%, -10.9)
(changes on 2023 "top vote")

Lab gain from Green; ward now 1 Ind, 1 Lab

Elmbridge; Molesey East

Lib Dem 694 (36.1%, -6.5 on 2023, -0.1 on 2022, +17.1 on 2021)
Con 627 (32.6%, +11.4 on 2023, -3.8 on 2022, +2.0 on 2021)
Molesey Residents 523 (27.2%, -4.5 on 2023, +6.6 on 2022, -7.6 on 2021)
Green 77 (4.0%, didn't stand in 2023, +0.2 on 2022, -4.4 on 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Molesey Residents; ward now 2 Lib Dem, 1 Con

City of London; Cripplegate

Lab 279 (40.8%)
Ind Hogg 182 (26.6%)
Ind Petroschka 177 (25.9%)
Ind Mielken 46 (6.7%)

Lab gain from Ind; ward now 4 Lab, 4 Ind.

City of London; Langbourn (alderman)

Ind Pryke 57
Ind Scott 31
Ind Bologna 22
Ind Biggs 15
Ind Bridgeland 13
Ind Denison-Pender 7
Ind Gocher 7
Ind Barrington-Hibbert 5
Ind Wright 5

"Ind hold"

[YL]

An unusual example of Labour winning a seat "from nowhere", though they had won in the area in the past.  And a rather less unusual example of the Lib Dems surging to win a seat in a historically strongly Tory area.

[CumbrianLefty]

A statistical quirk perhaps - but if you treat the two Indies who stood in that Bucks seat in 2021 as a team and not separate individuals, the fall in the Tory share is almost doubled to nearly 10%.

[Duke of York]

An unusual example of Labour winning a seat "from nowhere", though they had won in the area in the past.  And a rather less unusual example of the Lib Dems surging to win a seat in a historically strongly Tory area.

which seat are you referring too?

[YL]

An unusual example of Labour winning a seat "from nowhere", though they had won in the area in the past.  And a rather less unusual example of the Lib Dems surging to win a seat in a historically strongly Tory area.

which seat are you referring too?

Asfordby for the first and Buckingham East for the second.

A statistical quirk perhaps - but if you treat the two Indies who stood in that Bucks seat in 2021 as a team and not separate individuals, the fall in the Tory share is almost doubled to nearly 10%.

Indeed, but I think this is just an illustration that there isn't a single way to calculate percentages in multi-member FPTP and none of them are entirely satisfactory.  Sometimes Independents will function as a slate, sometimes not (and I don't know which in this case).  Sometimes candidates of different parties can effectively function as a slate.

[adma]

An unusual example of Labour winning a seat "from nowhere", though they had won in the area in the past.  And a rather less unusual example of the Lib Dems surging to win a seat in a historically strongly Tory area.

which seat are you referring too?

Asfordby for the first and Buckingham East for the second.

The fact that the Lib Dem in Bucks E was the Mayor of Bucks probably plays a part.

[Tintrlvr]

An unusual example of Labour winning a seat "from nowhere", though they had won in the area in the past.  And a rather less unusual example of the Lib Dems surging to win a seat in a historically strongly Tory area.

which seat are you referring too?

Asfordby for the first and Buckingham East for the second.

The fact that the Lib Dem in Bucks E was the Mayor of Bucks probably plays a part.

The Melton seat wasn't totally from nowhere, either. Labour held it until 2007, and the Independent who won it in 2019 and 2023 was clearly a Labour proxy to some degree. Melton council has also been run by a Labour-led coalition (though the coalition is mostly independents) since earlier this year.

[YL]

Thursday 9 November

Andrew Teale's preview

Mayor of Hackney

Lab 18474 (49.8%, -9.3)
Green 9075 (24.8%, +7.8)
Con 5039 (13.6%, +0.2)
Lib Dem 1879 (5.1%, -2.0)
Ind Smorthit 1382 (3.7%, new)
TUSC 1265 (3.4%, new)
(changes from 2022 first preferences; that election was under SV)

Lab hold

Lewisham; Deptford

Lab 1596 (71.2%, +21.4)
Green 382 (17.0%, -0.7)
Con 174 (7.8%, +0.1)
Lib Dem 91 (4.1%, -2.3)
(changes from 2022 "top vote" treating the four Independents separately)

Lab hold

Powys; Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower (2 seats)

Lib Dem 698 (57.4%, -1.6)
Lib Dem 658
Con 292 (24.0%, -17.0)
Con 275
Ind Games 116 (9.5%, new)
Lab 92 (7.6%, new)
Ind Markinson 18 (1.5%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

2 Lib Dem holds

Lincolnshire County Council; Grantham North

Con 762 (39.2%, -31.6)
Ind Harrison 446 (23.0%, new)
Lab 380 (19.6%, +2.1)
Green 193 (9.9%, 1.8)
Lib Dem 87 (4.5%, new)
Ind Ward 74 (3.8%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Con hold

South Kesteven; Grantham St Wulfram's

Con 361 (33.7%, +6.2)
Ind Swinburn 233 (21.8%, -3.0)
Lab 173 (16.2%, -0.7)
Green 145 (13.5%, new)
Lib Dem 135 (12.6%, new)
Ind Ward 24 (2.2%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote" treating the two Independents separately)

Con hold; ward remains 1 Ind, 1 Con

South Holland; Spalding St Paul's

Con 155+ (24.9%, -12.1) (won after drawing lots)
South Holland Ind 155 (24.9%, -38.1)
Ind Timewell* 132 (21.2%, new)
Lab 108 (17.3%, new)
Ind (no description) Wheeler 73 (11.7%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Con gain from South Holland Ind

* This candidate was shown on the ballot paper as a "True Independent".  This description is not allowed according to UK election law, which other than plain "Independent" and no description only allows registered descriptions of registered political parties.  This may mean that this result is subject to a court challenge.

[YL]

Lincolnshire remains Lincolnshire, I see.

[CumbrianLefty]

Adding to the above re the South Holland result - the illegally styled "True Independent" actually stood as a Tory candidate as recently as this May. If the SH Indies can find the resources for an election petition, it is hard to see them not pursuing it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Add to the above re the South Holland result - the illegally styled "True Independent" actually stood as a Tory candidate as recently as this May. If the Indies can find the resources for an election petition, it is hard to see them not pursuing it.

Extremely sketchy behaviour and some fairly serious questions for the district council to answer, actually.

[CumbrianLefty]

Election nerds missed out on the Hackney mayoral contest going to a second round (even if it would have been an obvious formality) due to the government changing such contests to FPTP.

And roughly the result that I expected, Labour's vote was always likely to dip given how it happened.

[Torrain]

There's an interesting by-election happening in the SNP ward of Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig on the 16th. Because Scotland elects councils via STV with multi-member wards, the party that topped the ballot in 2022 often ends up picking up easy seats when councillors picked as the second or third member (from other parties) resign.

But here, an SNP councillor has resigned, prompting a head-to-head race between them and Labour, who held 3/4 of the ward’s seats as recently as 2012, but reduced to 1/4. It's a ward that should be more favourable to Labour under current polling, so another temperature check on whether the dramatic shift in Scottish polling is being borne out.

It's part of the Motherwell and Wishaw constituency at Westminster - a Central Belt seat that the SNP won by 6k in 2019, but only 1.5k in 2017. If there's going to be a ScotLab revival - it'll need to start in places like Motherwell, the home seat of Jack McConnell, the last Labour First Minister.

[JimJamUK]

There's an interesting by-election happening in the SNP ward of Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig on the 16th. Because Scotland elects councils via STV with multi-member wards, the party that topped the ballot in 2022 often ends up picking up easy seats when councillors picked as the second or third member (from other parties) resign.

But here, an SNP councillor has resigned, prompting a head-to-head race between them and Labour, who held 3/4 of the ward’s seats as recently as 2012, but reduced to 1/4. It's a ward that should be more favourable to Labour under current polling, so another temperature check on whether the dramatic shift in Scottish polling is being borne out.

Although the change to the AV voting system means that a 2nd place Labour can do very well on unionist preferences (which given the SNP’s current polling, means almost everywhere Labour can come 2nd to them).

[YL]

Thursday 16 November

Andrew Teale's preview, and Ballot Box Scotland's.

North Lanarkshire; Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig

First preferences
Lab 1368 (44.0%, +12.8)
SNP 934 (30.1%, -12.7)
Con 296 (9.5%, -7.1)
Green 255 (8.2%, +0.4)
Brit Unionist 96 (3.1%, new)
Lib Dem 68 (2.2%, new)
Alba 66 (2.1%, new)
UKIP 24 (0.8%, +0.1)
(changes from 2022)

Lab gain from SNP; see next post for transfers; ward now 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Con

Doncaster; Rossington & Bawtry

Lab 1467 (56.7%, +16.2)
Con 492 (19.0%, +1.2)
Ind Cooke 461 (17.8%, -5.5)
Reform UK 168 (6.5%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote" counting the two Independents then separately)

Lab hold

Bolton; Kearsley

Farnworth and Kearsley First 1081 (66.0%, +42.5)
Lab 365 (22.3%, +8.2)
Reform UK/Bolton for Change 121 (7.4%, +1.2)
Con 38 (2.3%, -6.9)
Green 18 (1.1%, new)
Lib Dem 15 (0.9%, -0.1)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

FKF gain from One Kearsley who did not defend the seat; ward now 2 Lab (both elected as One Kearsley), 1 FKF

Bolton; Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill

Lib Dem 959 (41.5%, +11.3)
Con 665 (28.8%, -0.7)
Lab 440 (19.0%, -1.2)
Westhoughton First 118 (5.1%, -5.3)
Reform UK/Bolton for Change 101 (4.4%, -0.7)
Green 28 (1.2%, -3.4)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 2 Lib Dem, 1 Con

North Somerset; Wrington

Green 336 (32.7%, new)
Con 297 (28.9%, +6.8)
Lib Dem 283 (27.5%, new)
Lab 112 (10.9%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Green gain from Ind

Ceredigion; Aberystwyth Penparcau

Plaid 201 (36.7%, -9.8)
Lab 122 (22.3%, -5.5)
Ind Morgan 122 (22.3%, new)
Lib Dem 76 (13.9%, -0.3)
Con 27 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Plaid hold

[YL]

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

That's a very strong Con -> Lab transfer rate.

[YL]

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

That's a very strong Con -> Lab transfer rate.

Yes, though not unusual. My rule of thumb for Con transfers when there’s only Lab and SNP left is that only a handful go SNP and the rest split roughly evenly between Lab and non-transferable, which is pretty much what happened here.

It’s also a noticeably poor first preference total for the Tories: if there were a full four seat STV election with those first preferences you’d expect them to lose their seat.

[YL]

Reform UK continuing to fail to set the world on fire, in the sorts of areas you'd think would be relatively favourable to them, though to be fair the Local Parties For Local People are no doubt fishing in the same pool to some extent.

[CumbrianLefty]

Good result for Labour in Doncaster, even if its a 2021 baseline.

[DL]

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

That's a very strong Con -> Lab transfer rate.

Yes, though not unusual. My rule of thumb for Con transfers when there’s only Lab and SNP left is that only a handful go SNP and the rest split roughly evenly between Lab and non-transferable, which is pretty much what happened here.

It’s also a noticeably poor first preference total for the Tories: if there were a full four seat STV election with those first preferences you’d expect them to lose their seat.

To what extent do Tories bother preferencing at all? Would there be a chunk of them who would only vote Tory and then not bother to preference anyone else because they regard all other parties as equally bad (from their perspective)?

[Oryxslayer]

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

That's a very strong Con -> Lab transfer rate.

Yes, though not unusual. My rule of thumb for Con transfers when there’s only Lab and SNP left is that only a handful go SNP and the rest split roughly evenly between Lab and non-transferable, which is pretty much what happened here.

It’s also a noticeably poor first preference total for the Tories: if there were a full four seat STV election with those first preferences you’d expect them to lose their seat.

To what extent do Tories bother preferencing at all? Would there be a chunk of them who would only vote Tory and then not bother to preference anyone else because they regard all other parties as equally bad (from their perspective)?

That would very much be the case in England, and is probably some motivation among those who still don't preference here. But Scottish politics is not English politics, and the dominance of the SNP and the independence question for a decade now has realigned voter perceptions. The core Unionist voter camps seem fine voting for other unionist parties if it means the SNP can lose. The enemy of my enemy and whatnot. Look no further than Rutherglen and Hamilton West for a clear example.

[JimJamUK]

Good result for Labour in Doncaster, even if its a 2021 baseline.

The 2021 baseline is actually already very good for Labour (they weren’t beating the Tories 2/1 in the GE, more likely the Tories were beating them). Also, Rossington includes quite a few newish middle class estates while Bawtry doesn’t have mining history, so it should have a bit more of a core Tory vote than most of Doncaster.

[YL]

To what extent do Tories bother preferencing at all? Would there be a chunk of them who would only vote Tory and then not bother to preference anyone else because they regard all other parties as equally bad (from their perspective)?

Ballot Box Scotland has posted charts of second preferences for all the candidates:

(Source: this tweet.  And more Ballot Box Scotland analysis of the by-election here.)

Interestingly only 28.7% of Conservative first preferences did not have a second preference marked, and Labour were by some way the most popular second preference among those who did, miles ahead of the Lib Dems.  (The second most popular choice was the small British Unionist Party.)

Labour have rather more first preference only voters, with only UKIP (small sample size) having a higher proportion.  The Tories get the highest proportion of Labour second preferences, but it's quite close between them, the SNP and the Lib Dems.

From an English perspective the Tories and Labour being each others' most popular second preference is weird.  Scottish politics is, indeed, not English politics.

It looks like every combination of first and second preference votes is represented except BUP to Green, UKIP to Lib Dem and UKIP to Alba.  (And there were only 24 UKIP first preferences, so those two rather esoteric choices being missing is not surprising.)