UK local by-elections, 2023

[YL]

Let's see if we can get this started again.

Thursday 5 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Cannock Chase, Etching Hill & The Heath

Lab 422 (52.3%, +17.0 since 2022, +27.9 since 2021)
Con 385 (47.7%, -0.3 since 2022, -20.4 since 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Uttlesford, Great Dunmow South & Barnston

Con 375 (46.0%, +14.1)
Residents for Uttlesford 238 (29.2%, -27.3)
Lab 115 (14.1%, +2.4)
Lib Dem 88 (10.8%, new)
(changes since 2019; this council has whole council elections every four years)

Con gain from Residents for Uttlesford

[YL]

Thursday 12 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Plymouth, Moor View

Lab 1415 (53.2%, +23.9 since 2021, +16.7 since 2022)
Con 877 (33.0%, -30.5 since 2021, -21.0 since 2022)
Ind Marshall 184 (6.9%, new)
Green 87 (3.3%, -1.1 since 2021, -0.7 since 2022)
Lib Dem 77 (2.9%, +0.6 since 2021, -1.5 since 2022)
TUSC 18 (0.7%, +0.2 since 2021, -0.4 since 2022)

Lab gain from Con

Plymouth, Plympton Chaddlewood

Green 653 (44.9%, +1.6 since 2021, -12.8 since 2022)
Con 425 (29.2%, -18.4 since 2021, -5.7 since 2022)
Ind Hill 182 (12.5%, new)
Lab 147 (10.1%, +0.9 since 2021, +2.7 since 2022)
Lib Dem 33 (2.3%, new)
TUSC 15 (1.0%, new)

Green gain from Con

NB I've used the changes from Britain Elects on Twitter here.  These use the last time these specific seats, as opposed to the wards, were contested, in 2021, as a baseline.  The changes look less dramatic if 2022 is used as a baseline, though even then the Moor View swing is large.  EDIT: now added the 2022 changes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well firstly thank you very much for starting this!

It has to be said that the way Britain Elects reports these results in elects by thirds/halves authorities has long been a bugbear of mine, however. The most relevant and interesting comparison is with the last time the ward was contested, and that is how it was done the previous time these elections were collated on here prior to the 2019 GE.

[JimJamUK]

Well firstly thank you very much for starting this!

It has to be said that the way Britain Elects reports these results in elects by thirds/halves authorities has long been a bugbear of mine, however. The most relevant and interesting comparison is with the last time the ward was contested, and that is how it was done the previous time these elections were collated on here prior to the 2019 GE.

It’s a difficult one. The comparison to the last time the seat was up can be better in some situations like when the incumbent had a large personal vote (most important for independents) so is the technically ‘correct’ way of doing it, but in practice a comparison to the most recent regular election offers a better measure of progress and is less misleading to uninformed viewers (showing the Tories doing worse than 2021 is not showing much, but in the Plymouth cases one performance is better than 2022 and the other one worse).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where that's the case, it would make sense to show both.

[YL]

I've added the changes since 2022 to the Plymouth results, and those since 2021 for the Cannock Chase ward the week before.

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank you for doing this, too.

As you will be aware, the very useful result summaries on Vote UK (though sadly fallen into abeyance recently) have followed a similar format.

[YL]

Thursday 19 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Staffordshire County Council, Biddulph North

Lab 931 (49.5%, +13.8 )
Ind Hart 493 (26.2%, new)
Con 458 (24.3%, -33.3)
(changes from 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Staffordshire Moorlands, Biddulph West (double vacancy)

Lab 364 (36.8%, +11.5)
Lab 288
Ind Eardley 226 (22.8%, new)
Con 185 (18.7%, -3.7)
Ind McLaughlin 154 (15.6%, new)
Green 61 (6.2%, new)
(changes from 2019 using "top vote" for both; NB there are various ways of calculating percentages here and none are wholly satisfactory)

1 Lab gain fron Ind, 1 Lab gain from Con

Stevenage, Bedwell

Lab 907 (69.8%; +13.0 on 2022, +15.6 on 2021, +15.6 on 2019)
Con 263 (20.2%; -7.1 on 2022, -12.8 on 2021, -3.5 on 2019)
Lib Dem 129 (9.9%; -1.6 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021, +2.0 on 2019)

Lab hold

[Duke of York]

Thursday 19 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Staffordshire County Council, Biddulph North

Lab 931 (49.5%, +13.8 )
Ind Hart 493 (26.2%, new)
Con 458 (24.3%, -33.3)
(changes from 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Staffordshire Moorlands, Biddulph West (double vacancy)

Lab 364 (36.8%, +11.5)
Lab 288
Ind Eardley 226 (22.8%, new)
Con 185 (18.7%, -3.7)
Ind McLaughlin 154 (15.6%, new)
Green 61 (6.2%, new)
(changes from 2019 using "top vote" for both; NB there are various ways of calculating percentages here and none are wholly satisfactory)

1 Lab gain fron Ind, 1 Lab gain from Con

Stevenage, Bedwell

Lab 907 (69.8%; +13.0 on 2022, +15.6 on 2021, +15.6 on 2019)
Con 263 (20.2%; -7.1 on 2022, -12.8 on 2021, -3.5 on 2019)
Lib Dem 129 (9.9%; -1.6 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021, +2.0 on 2019)

Lab hold

are these results or predictions?

[YL]

Thursday 19 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Staffordshire County Council, Biddulph North

Lab 931 (49.5%, +13.8 )
Ind Hart 493 (26.2%, new)
Con 458 (24.3%, -33.3)
(changes from 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Staffordshire Moorlands, Biddulph West (double vacancy)

Lab 364 (36.8%, +11.5)
Lab 288
Ind Eardley 226 (22.8%, new)
Con 185 (18.7%, -3.7)
Ind McLaughlin 154 (15.6%, new)
Green 61 (6.2%, new)
(changes from 2019 using "top vote" for both; NB there are various ways of calculating percentages here and none are wholly satisfactory)

1 Lab gain fron Ind, 1 Lab gain from Con

Stevenage, Bedwell

Lab 907 (69.8%; +13.0 on 2022, +15.6 on 2021, +15.6 on 2019)
Con 263 (20.2%; -7.1 on 2022, -12.8 on 2021, -3.5 on 2019)
Lib Dem 129 (9.9%; -1.6 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021, +2.0 on 2019)

Lab hold

are these results or predictions?

Results

[Duke of York]

wow if these results are any indiction of the current mood this May's elections are going to be beyond brutal for the Conservatives.

[YL]

Thursday 26 January

Andrew Teale's preview

Rotherham, Keppel

Lab 745 (36.1%, +4.7)
Lib Dem 445 (21.6%, +14.7)
Ind Currie 381 (18.5%, new)
Yorkshire Party 314 (15.2%, +3.5)
Con 119 (5.8%, -18.2)
Green 59 (2.9%, new)
changes from 2021 (using top vote for the 2021 result)

Lab gain from Rotherham Democratic Party who did not defend the seat

[Tintrlvr]

Based on historical results it would be pretty appalling for Labour if this isn't a Labour gain, although I suppose the Yorkshire Party could be in with a shout if the protest vote is strong enough.

[JimJamUK]

Based on historical results it would be pretty appalling for Labour if this isn't a Labour gain, although I suppose the Yorkshire Party could be in with a shout if the protest vote is strong enough.

Generally agree, though Keppel does not strike me as the sort of ward that ‘should’ have elected 2/3 Labour councillors in 2021 given its previously strong UKIP/BNP vote and Thorpe Hesley (1/2 of the ward) being one of the most middle class parts of Rotherham council. Therefore, it may see a smaller than expected swing or as you say a protest vote for one of the smaller parties. Also, this is Rotherham council, where Labour have a rather dodgy reputation and by-elections can amplify this (that said, they did well in a December 2021 by-election so maybe not).

[YL]

Based on historical results it would be pretty appalling for Labour if this isn't a Labour gain, although I suppose the Yorkshire Party could be in with a shout if the protest vote is strong enough.

According to Sarah Champion MP on Twitter it was a "massive" Labour win.  I'll put the full figures in the post above when I know them.

Edit: now in.  Not quite what I was expecting from the that tweet, but comfortable enough for Labour (and laughably bad for the Tories).

[YL]

Thursday 2 February

Andrew Teale's preview

Bristol, Hotwells & Harbourside

Green 537 (43.0%, +11.0)
Lib Dem 511 (40.9%, +7.6)
Lab 153 (12.2%, -13.2)
Con 34 (2.7%, -6.6)
Ind Booth 14 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Green gain from Lib Dem

NB the Lib Dem candidate is former Bristol West MP Stephen Williams.

North Northamptonshire, Northall

Lab 1027 (38.0%, -3.7)
Con 805 (29.8%, -14.6)
Green 658 (24.4%, new)
Lib Dem 127 (4.7%, -9.3)
Reform UK 85 (3.1%, new)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Lab gain from Con

Torfaen, Llantarnam

Ind O'Connell 489 (41.7%, new)
Lab 406 (34.6%, +7.4)
Plaid Cymru 111 (9.5%, -8.2)
Con 85 (7.2%, new)
Green 69 (5.9%, -5.1)
Lib Dem 13 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Ind "hold"

[Tintrlvr]

The Reform UK candidate in Northamptonshire with what I think is a Palestinian name... there's got to be a story there.

[YL]

The Hotwells & Harbourside result makes the Greens the largest party on Bristol City Council.  This doesn't matter very much, as there's a Labour executive Mayor, but there is some symbolism.

I doubt the Lib Dem candidate being the former MP helped as much as it would in some places.  He last got elected in 2010 and in that ward an unusually large proportion of the electorate won't have been old enough to vote or even if they did will have lived elsewhere.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

The Hotwells & Harbourside result makes the Greens the largest party on Bristol City Council.  This doesn't matter very much, as there's a Labour executive Mayor, but there is some symbolism.

I doubt the Lib Dem candidate being the former MP helped as much as it would in some places.  He last got elected in 2010 and in that ward an unusually large proportion of the electorate won't have been old enough to vote or even if they did will have lived elsewhere.

I remember it being speculated in Bermondsey in 2017 that Simon Hughes (who was standing again after having lost in 2015) had already been forgotten or was not known to a big chunk of the electorate. Unlike Stephen Williams, he was a decades-long local institution.

[YL]

The Hotwells & Harbourside result makes the Greens the largest party on Bristol City Council.  This doesn't matter very much, as there's a Labour executive Mayor, but there is some symbolism.

I doubt the Lib Dem candidate being the former MP helped as much as it would in some places.  He last got elected in 2010 and in that ward an unusually large proportion of the electorate won't have been old enough to vote or even if they did will have lived elsewhere.

I remember it being speculated in Bermondsey in 2017 that Simon Hughes (who was standing again after having lost in 2015) had already been forgotten or was not known to a big chunk of the electorate. Unlike Stephen Williams, he was a decades-long local institution.

Though there are some examples of recently defeated MPs who did well in local elections.  Ruth George in Whaley Bridge comes to mind, though her Westminster defeat was very recent when she won the by-election.  (In the most recent Derbyshire County Council election there, her defeated Tory opponent was another former MP, though not for High Peak, one Edwina Currie.)

[Torrain]

The Reform UK candidate in Northamptonshire with what I think is a Palestinian name... there's got to be a story there.

Reform (and the Brexit Party before them) have actually had a fairly diverse slate of candidates.

Former MEP Louis Stedman-Bryce was the first black parliamentarian elected in Scotland (not the first non-white though, we have a number of South Asian MSPs, and a handful of MPs and former MPs).

A number of their London, Yorkshire and Durham candidates in 2019 were South Asian.

And in Islington North, they nominated Yosef David, an Orthodox Jewish candidate, in 2019. Although that was for clear political reasons, given the incumbent‘s record on issues related to Israel and Judaism more broadly.

There’s also Ann Widdecombe - which proves they have no problem with non-human candidates either.

[YL]

Thursday 9 February

Andrew Teale's previews

Cheltenham; Battledown

Lib Dem 877 (52.0%, +11.2 on 2022, +12.9 on 2021)
Con 609 (36.1%, -10.3 on 2022, -10.2 on 2021)
Green 156 (9.3%, -3.5 on 2022, +0.8 on 2021)
Lab 43 (2.6%, new from 2022, -3.5 on 2021)
(Cheltenham elects by halves)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Dartford; Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley

Con 808 (69.0%, +18.1 on 2019 top vote, -4.3 on May 2021, +1.2 on Jan 2022)
Lab 285 (24.3%, +10.8 on 2019 top vote, +2.0 on May 2021, +5.8 on Jan 2022)
Green 78 (6.7%, new)
(this being the third by-election in this ward since the last regular Dartford election)

Con hold

Hertfordshire County Council; Hitchin North

Lab 1992 (65.8%,+12.7)
Con 526 (17.4%, -9.5)
Green 415 (13.7%, +3.3)
Christian People’s Alliance 93 (3.1%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lab hold

North Yorkshire; Masham & Fountains

Lib Dem 1349 (62.7%, +37.2)
Con 801 (37.3%, -6.9)
changes from 2022; NB the Independent candidate in 2022 was the Lib Dem candidate this time

Lib Dem gain from Con

Denbighshire; Rhyl Tŷ Newydd

Con 336 (40.1%, -0.5)
Lab 329 (38.8%, -20.7)
Plaid 101 (12.0%, new)
Ind Rowlands 72 (8.6%, new)
Lib Dem 5 (0.6%, new)
(changes from 2022 top vote)

Con gain from Lab

[YL]

Good night for the Lib Dems (though I don't think either was exactly a surprise), and Rhyl WTF?

By the way the victorious Lib Dem (previously Independent) candidate in Masham & Fountains is the Countess of Swinton, and her husband the Earl is Willie Whitelaw's grandson.

[YL]

... and the Dartford result supports the feeling that there are some parts of the country where the Government's unpopularity isn't really affecting the Tory performance.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, rural Kent (especially rural *suburban* Kent, if you get what I mean) might well be one of their last holdouts in any wipeout.