Canadian by-elections 2023

[CumbrianLefty]

And it was the norm back in the day when you had to resign your seat if appointed to cabinet.

What? So you would be elected as MP/MPP/MLA, and if you get appointed to cabinet, resign your seat in the legislature and let someone else take it?

No. It was even stupider than that. You'd be elected as an MP, appointed to cabinet, resign your seat, stand in the by-election, get reelected (presumably) and carry on as if nothing happened.

What was the logic behind that stupidity ?

An M.P was considered to be in the service of their constituency, and if they wanted to be part of the executive, they needed the approval of their constituents.

As mentioned above, it used to be mandatory in the UK.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It originated in the early 18th century backlash against 'Placemen' and no one got around to getting rid of it, right up until 'Minister loses seat in Ministerial by-election' became a semi-regular headline.

[trebor204]

By-Elections called for Monday June 19th

https://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&dir=pre&document=may1423&lang=e


Winnipeg South Centre (MB)
Oxford (ON)
Portage–Lisgar (MB)
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount (QC)

However Calgary Heritage is not on the List, even though it was vacant a month before Oxford


EDIT: Due the Albert provincial election, Calgary Heritage will be called after the election

[Benjamin Frank]

As expected, the NDP acclaimed Sooke school trustee and political staffer Ravi Parmar for the Langford-Juan de Fuca by-election.
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/ndp-names-sooke-school-trustee-as-candidate-for-langford-juan-de-fuca-byelection-1.6397650

B.C United meanwhile have nominated Elena Lawson, a co-founder of the Children's Autism Federation of B.C.
https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/b-c-united-announces-autism-advocate-as-candidate-for-langford-juan-de-fuca-byelection-1.6392701

And the Green Party have nominated Camille Currie
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/green-candidate-announced-for-langford-juan-de-fuca-byelection-6828026

[Poirot]

For the federal Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount byelection:

Anna Gainey won the Liberal nomination.
Two people are seeking the nomination for the NDP.
Deputy leader Jonathan Pedneault is running for the Green party.
The CPC candidate is Mathew Kaminski, an accountant.

[DL]

For the federal Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount byelection:

Anna Gainey won the Liberal nomination.
Two people are seeking the nomination for the NDP.
Deputy leader Jonathan Pedneault is running for the Green party.
The CPC candidate is Mathew Kaminski, an accountant.

Did Gainey "win" the Liberal nomination or was she acclaimed with no opposition?

[Hatman 🍁]

For the federal Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount byelection:

Anna Gainey won the Liberal nomination.
Two people are seeking the nomination for the NDP.
Deputy leader Jonathan Pedneault is running for the Green party.
The CPC candidate is Mathew Kaminski, an accountant.

Did Gainey "win" the Liberal nomination or was she acclaimed with no opposition?

She had two opponents: https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/791133/anna-gainey-remporte-une-course-a-trois-dans-ndg-westmount

[Krago]

EDIT: Due the Albert provincial election, Calgary Heritage will be called after the election

Wimps.

In November 1988, residents of Welland and Thorold voted in an provincial by-election on the 3rd, a municipal election on the 14th, and a federal election on the 21st.

[Benjamin Frank]

EDIT: Due the Albert provincial election, Calgary Heritage will be called after the election

Wimps.

In November 1988, residents of Welland and Thorold voted in an provincial by-election on the 3rd, a municipal election on the 14th, and a federal election on the 21st.

Can you blame them? The provincial by-election elected Peter Kormos (RIP.)

[Benjamin Frank]

All of the five likeliest new M.Ps: Ben Carr, Brandon Leslie, Arpan Khanna and Anna Gainey as well as Shuvaloy Majumdar in Calgary Heritage are or were political staffers at some level.

[Benjamin Frank]

Rob Shaw: NDP to acclaim Indigenous leader and climate activist Joan Phillip to run in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
https://biv.com/article/2023/04/rob-shaw-ndp-acclaims-indigenous-leader-and-climate-activist-joan-phillip-run

[Krago]

I drove through Oxford on the way to the cottage yesterday.  The Conservatives were the only party with signs up in Woodstock.  In the rural area, the leading sign was "RESUME SPRAYING".

[Benjamin Frank]

I drove through Oxford on the way to the cottage yesterday.  The Conservatives were the only party with signs up in Woodstock.  In the rural area, the leading sign was "RESUME SPRAYING".

Do you think Resume Spraying has a chance of winning the by-election?

[adma]

Proof that the provincial Tories are taking Scarborough-Guildwood seriously

https://www.cp24.com/news/doug-ford-government-hopes-toronto-councillor-can-win-scarborough-riding-1.6409744

[Hatman 🍁]

Except he doesn't represent the riding on council. I don't know how well known city councillors in Toronto are, but most people can't name their own city councillor let alone the councillor for a neighbouring ward.

[lilTommy]

Except he doesn't represent the riding on council. I don't know how well known city councillors in Toronto are, but most people can't name their own city councillor let alone the councillor for a neighbouring ward.

It "ups" their visibility in the news cycle I think. The PCs will get more media attention since Crawford is rather high-profile as a former Budget chief. But that did no good for Saunders in Don Valley West.
I don't think it really helps in the field, as you mentioned, he's not this wards councilor.
We will need to see who the OLP and NDP nominate as this is going to be a three-horse race I think(IF the NDP can nominate strong) 

[DL]

Proof that the provincial Tories are taking Scarborough-Guildwood seriously

https://www.cp24.com/news/doug-ford-government-hopes-toronto-councillor-can-win-scarborough-riding-1.6409744

Its interesting but given the way the Ford government has become increasingly unpopular since the last election - especially in Toronto - I have a hard time seeing them win an opposition held seat. The timing of these byelections will be interesting. I suspect Ford will call all three for the same day - likely in September, meaning that if the OLP picks a new leader who lacks a seat in the legislature, they will not have any chance to try to get in via Scarborough-Guildwood.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Proof that the provincial Tories are taking Scarborough-Guildwood seriously

https://www.cp24.com/news/doug-ford-government-hopes-toronto-councillor-can-win-scarborough-riding-1.6409744

Its interesting but given the way the Ford government has become increasingly unpopular since the last election - especially in Toronto - I have a hard time seeing them win an opposition held seat. The timing of these byelections will be interesting. I suspect Ford will call all three for the same day - likely in September, meaning that if the OLP picks a new leader who lacks a seat in the legislature, they will not have any chance to try to get in via Scarborough-Guildwood.

Has the Ford government gotten more unpopular? The PCs haven't dropped below the high-30s since the last election, which was how they polled during the last campaign too (they outperformed polls, as they did in 2018 - probably some combination of non-response bias and high turnout among older voters - I suspect they'd outperform polls and get 40% if an election were held today). Compared to the constant ups and downs of his first term, Ford's second term has seen a pretty stable level of support...so far. We'll see how the Grit leadership race affects things.

But you're right, it would be very surprising if Scarborough-Guildwood is anything but a Liberal hold.

[DL]

I've seen a few polls that show growing dissatisfaction with Ford - especially in Toronto and even in the best of circumstances, byelections are usually time for people to cast a protest vote so odds don't tend to favour the government.

[trebor204]

As of right now there are 27 candidates running in Winnipeg South Centre.


https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/candidates?L=e&ED=46014&EV=55&EV_TYPE=3&PROV=MB&PROVID=46&QID=-1&PAGEID=17

Many of them (23 out of 27), have the same official agent, and are part of the Longest Ballot Committee. The committee is hoping to have 65 candidates run in the by-election. If you include the candidates from other parties you might have as many of 70 candidates running. The record for most candidates running in the election was 40 last year in Mississauga Lakeshore.


https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/group-of-political-activists-plan-to-flood-by-election-ballot-in-winnipeg-1.6414015

[Хahar 🤔]

Thanks to the Supreme Court for making sure that these 65 candidates would not be subjected to the indignity of an electoral deposit. Canada is the world's freest country thanks to its efforts.

[trebor204]

A record 48 candidates are running in Winnipeg South Centre of which 42 are part of the Longest Ballot Committee. It will interesting if any of the candidates won't get a single vote.

https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/candidates?L=e&ED=46014&EV=55&EV_TYPE=3&PROV=MB&PROVID=46&QID=-1&PAGEID=17

A bunch of these candidates ran in Mississauga Lakeshore
 
https://elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_2022/54/table12E.html

[Benjamin Frank]

A record 48 candidates are running in Winnipeg South Centre of which 42 are part of the Longest Ballot Committee. It will interesting if any of the candidates won't get a single vote.

https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/candidates?L=e&ED=46014&EV=55&EV_TYPE=3&PROV=MB&PROVID=46&QID=-1&PAGEID=17

A bunch of these candidates ran in Mississauga Lakeshore
 
https://elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_2022/54/table12E.html

101 people are running for mayor of Toronto. This by election is a slacker.

[DL]

101 people are running for mayor of Toronto. This by election is a slacker.

Actually there are 102 candidates. Some are calling it Olivia Chow and the 101 Dalmatians

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/MainStResearch/status/1669450835141578753
Uhhhhhhhhh......

Okay, this is a riding poll, they usually don't mean much. But still, a tie in Oxford? That's insane.

I think there are three reasons that could apply here:

1. Like I said, riding poll. These always need to be taken with a mountain of salt, and could turn out to be nothing.
2. Local factors, obviously this riding has a bit of drama. Pierre parachuted his own guy into the riding against outgoing MP Dave MacKenzie's wishes (whose daughter was among the nomination candidates), and MacKenzie retaliated by endorsing and campaigning for the Liberal challenger.
3. National-level polls are universally way off, because under normal circumstances, CPC in danger in Oxford would imply low-20s nationally, not mid-30s.

For what it's worth, I think it's more a combination of the first two. CPC will hope it's more #1, LPC will hope it's more #2 (well I'm sure they'd prefer #3, but I can't imagine any reason why literally every pollster, including MSR, would be so far off nationally).