Canadian by-elections 2023

[adma]

Uhhhhhhhhh......

Okay, this is a riding poll, they usually don't mean much. But still, a tie in Oxford? That's insane.

I think there are three reasons that could apply here:

1. Like I said, riding poll. These always need to be taken with a mountain of salt, and could turn out to be nothing.
2. Local factors, obviously this riding has a bit of drama. Pierre parachuted his own guy into the riding against outgoing MP Dave MacKenzie's wishes (whose daughter was among the nomination candidates), and MacKenzie retaliated by endorsing and campaigning for the Liberal challenger.
3. National-level polls are universally way off, because under normal circumstances, CPC in danger in Oxford would imply low-20s nationally, not mid-30s.

For what it's worth, I think it's more a combination of the first two. CPC will hope it's more #1, LPC will hope it's more #2 (well I'm sure they'd prefer #3, but I can't imagine any reason why literally every pollster, including MSR, would be so far off nationally).

Given the riding, it'd be #2, because there's no way otherwise that the Libs would be so high and the NDP be so deep in the tank.

[Hatman 🍁]

It is 100% local factors. Still, very hard to believe.

They also polled Portage Lisgar and Winnipeg South Centre:

Portage-Lisgar (change since 2021):

Cons 43 (-10)
PPC 27 (+5)
Lib 15 (+4)
NDP 10 (-3)
Grn 4 (DNR)

There is speculation they may have under-reported the Mennonite vote, based on polling error in 2021, so possible the race is closer.

Winnipeg South Centre

Lib 49 (+3)
Cons 29 (+1)
NDP 16 (-5)
PPC 2 (-1)
Grn 2 (-1)

It's shaping up to be a very good night for the Liberals, despite their national polling numbers, and a very bad night for the Tories. Also a bad night for the NDP, but none of these seats are really targets.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I guess these results could be true. The Oxford Tory candidate is about as weak as they come (not my riding but I'm next door) so its possible there's an upset even with a bad national environment for the Liberals. It would be a real catastrophe for PP if a loss in Oxford due to top down interference in candidate selection was accompanied by Bernier improving on his 2021 performance.

Still, I'm holding my horses on this one since Quito Maggi has a long history of hat eating. Just holding onto his 2021 votes without COVID policy as a motivation would be an achievement for Bernier, never mind narrowing the gap. I guess the lack of an incumbent plus the fact that it's a byelection are favourable factors for him but the only issues he can outflank the Tories on are abortion and the Ukraine war specifically pandering to Mennonite pacifism and opposing intervention, a position Poilievre can't afford to take. My thought was that if the CHP was never able to make inroads then Bernier on a SoCon platform wouldn't either but who knows

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It is 100% local factors. Still, very hard to believe.

They also polled Portage Lisgar and Winnipeg South Centre:

Portage-Lisgar (change since 2021):

Cons 43 (-10)
PPC 27 (+5)
Lib 15 (+4)
NDP 10 (-3)
Grn 4 (DNR)

There is speculation they may have under-reported the Mennonite vote, based on polling error in 2021, so possible the race is closer.

Winnipeg South Centre

Lib 49 (+3)
Cons 29 (+1)
NDP 16 (-5)
PPC 2 (-1)
Grn 2 (-1)

It's shaping up to be a very good night for the Liberals, despite their national polling numbers, and a very bad night for the Tories. Also a bad night for the NDP, but none of these seats are really targets.

NDP typically underperforms in by-elections, except ones which they hold or could conceivably pick up, and none of these three fall into that category. So I wouldn't worry too much. Winnipeg South Centre is the only one that even remotely matters as far as national dynamics, and yes Tories would like to be closing the gap there. But the CPC needs a strong split on the left to pick that one up, realistically.

That said, I remember the Grits almost picking up Brandon-Souris and getting over a third of the vote in Fort Mac, during Harper's final term. Granted Poilievre doesn't need nearly as big a wave as Trudeau needed, but still, if these polls are right, we're looking at effectively no shifts in one riding and Tories playing defense in the other two. Not good.

[adma]

That said, I remember the Grits almost picking up Brandon-Souris and getting over a third of the vote in Fort Mac, during Harper's final term. Granted Poilievre doesn't need nearly as big a wave as Trudeau needed, but still, if these polls are right, we're looking at effectively no shifts in one riding and Tories playing defense in the other two. Not good.

Though with son-of-Jim being WSC's Liberal standard-bearer, the Grits probably have a built-in sentimental boost.  So I can comprehend why both the Cons and the Dippers might be impelled to throw *that* one this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP should've been targeting NDG more (or just as much) IMO. Not exactly winnable, but getting a good result there would be good for the Montreal base. The party should be trying it's best to win over progressive Anglos in the city. However, it looks like they're conceding second to the Greens.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The NDP should've been targeting NDP NDG more (or just as much) IMO. Not exactly winnable, but getting a good result there would be good for the Montreal base. The party should be trying it's best to win over progressive Anglos in the city. However, it looks like they're conceding second to the Greens.

Yeah, I think that makes sense. I guess Jonathan Pedneault running there makes NDG more favourable for the Greens this time, but if anything I'd think Dippers would be keen to stamp down any potential Green gains - not that I think NDG is going to go Green, or NDP for that matter, it would be a shock to see that riding vote anything but Liberal barring a major Liberal collapse. But building up their Montreal infrastructure is the NDP's best bet at making gains in Quebec. You could imagine today's NDP winning places like Outremont, Laurier-Ste Marie, Hochelaga, even a post-Trudeau Papineau, within a few election cycles. Certainly that's more likely than them winning back "Layton-Legault" ridings.

[trebor204]

By-election for Calgary Heritage called for July24th


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/trudeau-byelection-calgary-heritage-1.6880728

[adma]

The NDP should've been targeting NDP NDG more (or just as much) IMO. Not exactly winnable, but getting a good result there would be good for the Montreal base. The party should be trying it's best to win over progressive Anglos in the city. However, it looks like they're conceding second to the Greens.

Yeah, I think that makes sense. I guess Jonathan Pedneault running there makes NDG more favourable for the Greens this time, but if anything I'd think Dippers would be keen to stamp down any potential Green gains - not that I think NDG is going to go Green, or NDP for that matter, it would be a shock to see that riding vote anything but Liberal barring a major Liberal collapse. But building up their Montreal infrastructure is the NDP's best bet at making gains in Quebec. You could imagine today's NDP winning places like Outremont, Laurier-Ste Marie, Hochelaga, even a post-Trudeau Papineau, within a few election cycles. Certainly that's more likely than them winning back "Layton-Legault" ridings.

Real egg-on-the-NDP's-face would be if they concede 2nd to the Greens, and finish 2nd anyway.  (Though NDG's always been Green-targetable--the provincial riding had Peter McQueen finish mid-teens 2nd in '07 and '08.)

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP should've been targeting NDG more (or just as much) IMO. Not exactly winnable, but getting a good result there would be good for the Montreal base. The party should be trying it's best to win over progressive Anglos in the city. However, it looks like they're conceding second to the Greens.

NDP for NDG, the (bad) slogans write themselves.

[Benjamin Frank]

Though very unlikely, it would be amusing if the Conservatives lost both Portage-Lisgar and Oxford.

[DL]

Before the byelection in Mississauga Lakeshore I was told the national director of the NDP said “I just could not justify spending $80,000 to get 12% rather than 6% and I think she has a point

[Hatman 🍁]

Before the byelection in Mississauga Lakeshore I was told the national director of the NDP said “I just could not justify spending $80,000 to get 12% rather than 6% and I think she has a point

I think throwing some money into Winnipeg and Montreal might have been a good idea just to get a base of volunteers and spread the grassroots in the cities. I can understand writing off Lakeshore, which will never be an NDP seat, but a hypothetical NDP government runs through WSC and NDG.

[DL]

In the case of Winnipeg, i don't think there is any shortage of NDP members and volunteers, the Manitoba NDP is likely to have an Edmonton-style sweep of the city this fall and for all we know the NDP is putting some resources into the WSC byelection - I honestly don't know.

As for NDG-Westmount, its an awkward situation for all parties - a lot of voters are pissed off with the Liberals, but its largely over the language bill that is seen as an attack on the English community - but the trouble is all the other parties (including the NDP) support the legislation so the only way anglos can register a protest is by staying home or by voting for a fringe candidate.   

[DL]

NDP typically underperforms in by-elections, except ones which they hold or could conceivably pick up, and none of these three fall into that category.

My impression is that in general all parties tend to do badly in byelections in ridings where they are not seen to be in contention and are not historically a factor. Same is true in the UK. When there is a byelection in Labour-Tory marginal, the LD vote tends to evaporate and similarly when there is a byelection in Tory-LD marginal, the Labour vote tends to evaporate compared to what they would get in a general election.

[mileslunn]

NDP typically underperforms in by-elections, except ones which they hold or could conceivably pick up, and none of these three fall into that category.

My impression is that in general all parties tend to do badly in byelections in ridings where they are not seen to be in contention and are not historically a factor. Same is true in the UK. When there is a byelection in Labour-Tory marginal, the LD vote tends to evaporate and similarly when there is a byelection in Tory-LD marginal, the Labour vote tends to evaporate compared to what they would get in a general election.

I have found that too.  Harper Tories in by-elections between 2006 and 2011 generally outperformed previous election except in ridings they had no hope in where would often lose deposit.  NDP tends to bomb badly in ridings they have no hope also.  And yes in UK, you definitely see it although with Liberal Democrats and Labour Party, you have a fair bit of tactical voting too.  While parties fairly different, I find when Tories have been in power over a decade, the throw the bums out sentiment is strong enough many will go for whichever is seen as more likely to win.  When Labour in power or Tories relatively new in power than crossover is somewhat less.

[adma]

In the case of Winnipeg, i don't think there is any shortage of NDP members and volunteers, the Manitoba NDP is likely to have an Edmonton-style sweep of the city this fall and for all we know the NDP is putting some resources into the WSC byelection - I honestly don't know.

As for NDG-Westmount, its an awkward situation for all parties - a lot of voters are pissed off with the Liberals, but its largely over the language bill that is seen as an attack on the English community - but the trouble is all the other parties (including the NDP) support the legislation so the only way anglos can register a protest is by staying home or by voting for a fringe candidate.   

The problem w/Winnipeg is that it's a reverse situation from Oxford--that is, the son of the previous office-holder *is* the one running for the incumbent party, and has inherited the machine plus a good deal of sentimental cushion.  So any resources the NDP's putting in is, at most, priming the pump for the longer term.

Indeed, one might claim that the NDP presently has more claim to "natural opposition party" status in NDG-Westmount than in WSC--even if it's a *very* remote 2nd we're dealing with.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Lot of hype generated by the Mainstreet polls (well, a lot of hype by byelections standards, anyway). Either Poilievre gets egg on his face tonight, or Quito Maggi does. One is a lot more relevant than the other.

I actually think Winnipeg South Centre is the most relevant, even though it's almost certainly a Liberal hold, because WSC has at least somewhat similar dynamics as the kinds of ridings that typically decide Canadian elections - Portage and Oxford are both normally Tory locks under unusual byelection circumstances, and NDG-Westmount's electorate is very unique.

[trebor204]

First results are in Portage Lisgar

Branden Leslie has 28 votes (or 80%), Maxine Bernier has 2 votes.

[Benjamin Frank]

First results are in Portage Lisgar

Branden Leslie has 28 votes (or 80%), Maxine Bernier has 2 votes.

Wait for the Berniermentum!

[Benjamin Frank]

First poll from NDG. Gainey has about 2/3 of the vote.

[Benjamin Frank]

Second poll and Gainey drops to 60%. At this rate she'll be in negative percentage soon!

[Benjamin Frank]

Second poll and Gainey drops to 60%. At this rate she'll be in negative percentage soon!

Gainey now at just over 50%!!!!!

More seriously, Bernier is now over 10%, but no where near 25% so far. He's a clear second place for whatever that's worth.

[Benjamin Frank]

First poll in WSC, NDP and Liberals tied.

[adma]

What's pathetic about Bernier is how he officially dubs himself "Max Bernier" when he runs in non-Quebec byelections, even though the name "Maxime" is familiar enough to be no barrier...