Canadian by-elections 2023

[Hatman 🍁]

New Year, new thread.

Here are current vacancies both federally and provincially (excluding provinces that are having provincial elections this year). I don't believe we have any dates for any these by-elections yet.

Federal
*Winnipeg South Centre
*Calgary Heritage

Provincial
*Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore, NB
*Dieppe, NB
*Restigouche-Chaleur, NB
*Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne, QC
*Hamilton Centre, ON

[emmettmark]

Oxford (Dave McKenzie retiring January 28th) is another by-election to watch!

I'd also keep an eye on Portage-Lisgar, as Candice Bergen might decide to step down as MP before the next election.

Ultimately, safe-Conservative seats like Calgary Heritage and Oxford (and Portage-Lisgar?) give good insight into the type of CPC candidates that run for/win contested party nominations in a Poilievre-led party.

[adma]

Ultimately, safe-Conservative seats like Calgary Heritage and Oxford (and Portage-Lisgar?) give good insight into the type of CPC candidates that run for/win contested party nominations in a Poilievre-led party.

Or into degrees of macro-vulnerability, depending on the scale of victory and the nature of the opposition vote.

I do feel, though, that Poilievre's leadership *should* temper PPC support in Portage-Lisgar (PPC's strongest '21 riding, on the back of the normally nuclear-Con Mennonite populace in the S).  But conversely, provincial Con gov't unpopularity might be cause to monitor the NDP share in Calgary-Heritage (or even Oxford, where things have been tweaked orangeward by the CAMI/Toyota economy in recent years)

[Benjamin Frank]

Not totally fitting this thread, but does anybody have any updates on the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leadership race? They had wanted a new leader in place by the end of 2022.

I know the Newfoundland and Labrador P.C Leadership race has been set for October 2023.

[emmettmark]

Ultimately, safe-Conservative seats like Calgary Heritage and Oxford (and Portage-Lisgar?) give good insight into the type of CPC candidates that run for/win contested party nominations in a Poilievre-led party.

Or into degrees of macro-vulnerability, depending on the scale of victory and the nature of the opposition vote.

I do feel, though, that Poilievre's leadership *should* temper PPC support in Portage-Lisgar (PPC's strongest '21 riding, on the back of the normally nuclear-Con Mennonite populace in the S).  But conversely, provincial Con gov't unpopularity might be cause to monitor the NDP share in Calgary-Heritage (or even Oxford, where things have been tweaked orangeward by the CAMI/Toyota economy in recent years)

Absolutely agree - I'd also suggest these pending by-elections would be more useful to gauge the national environment than the recent one held in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Case in point, the CPC didn't do 'that' terribly in Mississauga, seeing their 2022 performance (37.14%) decrease by only 1.5% compared to their 2021 performance (38.68%); rather, the sharp increase in LPC support and collapse of the NDP redefined the entire local playing field.

It's unlikely the LPC will field a 'star candidate' like Sousa in any of these safe-CPC byelections, and should be easier to infer the national environment.

[mileslunn]

Three New Brunswick all safe Liberal ones so should hold easily.  While margins interesting, Higgs has never done well in Francophone parts so whether he is in trouble as polls suggest or not will more depend if Anglophone support holding up or not.  Hamilton Centre will be solid NDP and I expect PCs as always do, to do poorly.  Sainte Anne-Saint Henri favours PLQ but QS upset possible.

For federal none are really swing ones.

Calgary-Heritage: Solid CPC and should win it easily but if called before provincial election possible direction could be first sign of what is to come.  While NDP provincially could win in this area, federally it will stay easily CPC.  But if they underperform could suggest UCP is hurting them but not enough to lose seat or even make it competitive. 

Oxford: Solid CPC but that was a riding PPC got 11% in so do Tories swallow most of that or fall short so could be good read on whether Poilievre is winning over PPC support and is he doing it without losing moderate Tories or not.

Winnipeg South Centre: Yes Tories won it in 2011, but that was in a perfect conditions and I don't see it being winnable for them right now.  For Liberals over 20 points good news, teens suggests probably in minority territory while single digits more worrisome.  Tories won't win it but need to get over 30% if they are going to win nationally.  NDP got 20% and while won't win, be interesting to see if they hold or much of it goes to Liberals.  If a lot goes to Liberals, bad news for Tories as suggests many strategically voting Liberal to stop Tories as I get impression NDP voters dislike both O'Toole and Poilievre, but Poilievre frightens them a lot more.

[adma]

Three New Brunswick all safe Liberal ones so should hold easily.  While margins interesting, Higgs has never done well in Francophone parts so whether he is in trouble as polls suggest or not will more depend if Anglophone support holding up or not.  Hamilton Centre will be solid NDP and I expect PCs as always do, to do poorly.  Sainte Anne-Saint Henri favours PLQ but QS upset possible.

For federal none are really swing ones.

Calgary-Heritage: Solid CPC and should win it easily but if called before provincial election possible direction could be first sign of what is to come.  While NDP provincially could win in this area, federally it will stay easily CPC.  But if they underperform could suggest UCP is hurting them but not enough to lose seat or even make it competitive. 

Oxford: Solid CPC but that was a riding PPC got 11% in so do Tories swallow most of that or fall short so could be good read on whether Poilievre is winning over PPC support and is he doing it without losing moderate Tories or not.

Winnipeg South Centre: Yes Tories won it in 2011, but that was in a perfect conditions and I don't see it being winnable for them right now.  For Liberals over 20 points good news, teens suggests probably in minority territory while single digits more worrisome.  Tories won't win it but need to get over 30% if they are going to win nationally.  NDP got 20% and while won't win, be interesting to see if they hold or much of it goes to Liberals.  If a lot goes to Liberals, bad news for Tories as suggests many strategically voting Liberal to stop Tories as I get impression NDP voters dislike both O'Toole and Poilievre, but Poilievre frightens them a lot more.

Conversely, I *could* see WSC as a provincial-Kirkfield Park-esque three-way--that is, through the NDP actually building on its base rather than yielding to the Libs; and to perhaps even allow for a dynamic a la the provincial Toronto-St Paul's in the Jill Andrew era.

As for Oxford, it depends on *where* that PPC vote goes--it's not unlike Reform in the 90s in that while their big strongholds are evangelical-based (Norwich & environs, etc), there's still a sizeable "blue-collar populist" element that *could* bounce back to NDP if so compelled.  So it might also be a test of the post-O'Toole endurance of the Cons' blue-collar strategy...

[lilTommy]

Three New Brunswick all safe Liberal ones so should hold easily.  While margins interesting, Higgs has never done well in Francophone parts so whether he is in trouble as polls suggest or not will more depend if Anglophone support holding up or not.  Hamilton Centre will be solid NDP and I expect PCs as always do, to do poorly.  Sainte Anne-Saint Henri favours PLQ but QS upset possible.

For federal none are really swing ones.

Calgary-Heritage: Solid CPC and should win it easily but if called before provincial election possible direction could be first sign of what is to come.  While NDP provincially could win in this area, federally it will stay easily CPC.  But if they underperform could suggest UCP is hurting them but not enough to lose seat or even make it competitive. 

Oxford: Solid CPC but that was a riding PPC got 11% in so do Tories swallow most of that or fall short so could be good read on whether Poilievre is winning over PPC support and is he doing it without losing moderate Tories or not.

Winnipeg South Centre: Yes Tories won it in 2011, but that was in a perfect conditions and I don't see it being winnable for them right now.  For Liberals over 20 points good news, teens suggests probably in minority territory while single digits more worrisome.  Tories won't win it but need to get over 30% if they are going to win nationally.  NDP got 20% and while won't win, be interesting to see if they hold or much of it goes to Liberals.  If a lot goes to Liberals, bad news for Tories as suggests many strategically voting Liberal to stop Tories as I get impression NDP voters dislike both O'Toole and Poilievre, but Poilievre frightens them a lot more.

Conversely, I *could* see WSC as a provincial-Kirkfield Park-esque three-way--that is, through the NDP actually building on its base rather than yielding to the Libs; and to perhaps even allow for a dynamic a la the provincial Toronto-St Paul's in the Jill Andrew era.

As for Oxford, it depends on *where* that PPC vote goes--it's not unlike Reform in the 90s in that while their big strongholds are evangelical-based (Norwich & environs, etc), there's still a sizeable "blue-collar populist" element that *could* bounce back to NDP if so compelled.  So it might also be a test of the post-O'Toole endurance of the Cons' blue-collar strategy...

In Oxford it will be interesting to see where the anti-CPC/Poilieve vote goes. The NDP and Liberals battle for second place; in 2019 is was the NDP by about 1-2% in 2021 it was the Liberals by about 1-2%. In 2015 the LPC were comfortably in second but in 2011 the NDP were. Both parties could argue they are the best suited to defeat the CPC. I think it will depend on resources and local candidates, If either the NDP or Liberals can score a "star" candidate they can use the strong candidate approach to rally the anti-CPC vote. There is also the anti-Ford=Poilievre factor that may play the spoiler with some moderate voters.
The LPC will focus on retaining WSC for sure, the NDP of the three by-elections would want to defeat the CPC over the LPC, so may focus on Oxford (win back a voting base that should align to them, union-blue-collar, etc) then on WSC (to maintain or grow the base). To try and spread out the CPC resources the two parties may have a go at CH if only to train the CPC who are fighting to hold two seats. 

[emmettmark]

Excellent article on the coming by-elections:

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics-nepotism-problem

More than likely that 2/3 by-elections results in the offspring of the former MP going to Ottawa! Would be interesting if Ben Harper also puts his name forward in Calgary Heritage

[adma]

In Oxford it will be interesting to see where the anti-CPC/Poilieve vote goes. The NDP and Liberals battle for second place; in 2019 is was the NDP by about 1-2% in 2021 it was the Liberals by about 1-2%. In 2015 the LPC were comfortably in second but in 2011 the NDP were. Both parties could argue they are the best suited to defeat the CPC. I think it will depend on resources and local candidates, If either the NDP or Liberals can score a "star" candidate they can use the strong candidate approach to rally the anti-CPC vote. There is also the anti-Ford=Poilievre factor that may play the spoiler with some moderate voters.
The LPC will focus on retaining WSC for sure, the NDP of the three by-elections would want to defeat the CPC over the LPC, so may focus on Oxford (win back a voting base that should align to them, union-blue-collar, etc) then on WSC (to maintain or grow the base). To try and spread out the CPC resources the two parties may have a go at CH if only to train the CPC who are fighting to hold two seats. 

OTOH WSC might be the easier "get" for the NDP, simply through inner urban Winnipeg's historical Dipper-friendliness (particularly provincially) and through the leverage places like Osborne Village carry.  But that'd require credible candidacy and a wave in the air.

Oxford is, historically speaking, more of a SW Ontario Heartland Tory bedrock seat, the sort that only shifts in waves when the Cons are either split or in the dumps ('87/90 provincially, '93-00 federally); but it's also one of those SW Ontario Heartland places where, provincially, the NDP's overtaken the Libs in opposition.  And even federally speaking, the comfortably-in-second Libs in '15 and NDP in '11 are a bit "duh" given the dynamics of those elections; but it might be more useful to state that it was one of Ontario's few single-digit Liberal shares in '11, while the NDP still managed over 16% in 3rd in '15--and they were barely a point behind the Libs in *'08*.  As for '19 vs '21, I wonder if the NDP and Libs switching places had something to do w/PPC--and maybe even the O'Toole Cons--snatching some of that union-populist base; but generally, while the Dippers can still give it a competitive-esque shot, I get a whiff of heartland-populist fool's gold a la what's characterized Sarnia in recent times.  As for the Libs, the main places where they can get leverage over the NDP might be recent and/or middle-classish suburbia a la recent developments in N Woodstock and all around Tillsonburg (including the latter's retirement communities).

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP doesn't have that much room for growth in WSC. River Heights and Tuxedo are too anti-NDP for them to have a chance I think.

[adma]

The NDP doesn't have that much room for growth in WSC. River Heights and Tuxedo are too anti-NDP for them to have a chance I think.

IOW they'd have to sort of "max out" in the Osborne/Fort Rouge/Fort Garry environs, and hope that might pull some bottom-feeding River Heights/Tuxedo vote over the wire in the process.  (And in the case of River Heights, it might not be so much "anti-NDP" as too hard-wired into the Liberal default.)

In any case, if there's more potential for the NDP in WSC, it's through a more amenable 3-way split environment than in Oxford, where things are pretty plumped for the Cons unless PPC were poised to build on their last result (which if that were plausible, could lead to a *4*-way split environment).

[Krago]

Does anyone remember how some non-French-speaking candidates were booted out of last fall's municipal elections in Toronto when they ran for trustee on French-language school boards?

Here is the by-election info:

https://www.toronto.ca/news/by-election-candidate-nominations-open-for-the-conseil-scolaire-viamonde-ward-3-centre-and-the-conseil-scolaire-catholique-monavenir-ward-4-toronto-est/

https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/elections/by-election/

https://csviamonde.ca/viamonde/gouvernance/elections


And there was also this screw-up:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/wcdsb-catholic-cambridge-north-dumfries-school-trustee-1.6665422

[Benjamin Frank]

Bob Benzen in announcing he would step down gave a self important speech in which he proclaimed that he was not 'a career politician.'

That's fine, but if that's the case then why did he run again in 2021?

What's the difference between not running in 2021 and not stepping down at the end of 2022?

In 2022 Bob Benzen served 6 years and qualified for a pension.

Is there any other reason this clown chose to run again in 2021 other than to get a pension?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there any other reason this clown chose to run again in 2021 other than to get a pension?

I think you just answered your own question.

[Hatman 🍁]

A guy who I curled against last year in my club's Saturday morning league is running for the Conservative nomination in Calgary Heritage. It's weird how many Conservatives come to Ottawa for education, only to go out west once they graduate. Or in the case of Poilievre, they stick around.

[King of Kensington]

Laura Mae Lindo, MPP for Kitchener Centre, is leaving politics.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/kitchener-centre-mpp-laura-mae-lindo-stepping-down-1.6718233

It's certainly not a safe NDP seat.  This will be the first test of Marit Stiles' leadership.  The seat is held federally by Green MP Mike Morrice, and Ontario Green leader Mike Schreiner represents nearby Guelph.  

[lilTommy]

Laura Mae Lindo, MPP for Kitchener Centre, is leaving politics.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/kitchener-centre-mpp-laura-mae-lindo-stepping-down-1.6718233

It's certainly not a safe NDP seat.  This will be the first test of Marit Stiles' leadership.  The seat is held federally by Green MP Mike Morrice, and Ontario Green leader Mike Schreiner represents nearby Guelph.  

It's an interesting seat, all four parties could make a run for it. It was held by the PCs under Harris, and under the Liberals after that until the NDP won in 2018. Federally it was held by the CPC under Harper but went back to Liberal until 2021 when the Greens won. It looks to be today a generally "progressive" seat, with Ford unable to win when the PCs former gov't. As you mentioned Green Federally (due to an scandal with the LPC sitting MP). But traditionally more a Liberal seat as the Liberals were seen as the alternative to the Conservatives. The PCs/CPC have a solid 25% base it looks like over the last few elections at both levels.

I do think this will likely be an NDP/Green fight with Liberals playing spoiler. The last polling from December had the NDP ahead of the Liberals (27% to 25%) where in the last election they were tied. But the NDP have two advantages, they HAVE a leader and are not only the official opposition but the only other official party (Liberals and Greens are not). I don't think the Liberals have the resources to run a winning campaign, where I think the NDP and the Greens could. I do think candidates will also play a big roll in who wins.
The NDP have some strong municipal candidates that may run, Margaret Johnston who's a city councillor, ran provincially in 2014, (I think she might have tried to run in 2018 but lost to Lindo?). Or Joanne Weston who ran for the NDP in Kitchener South-Hespeler last year and is now the chair of the Waterloo School Board now.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd imagine Beisan Zubi takes another run at it (she ran for the seat federally, and got squeezed out by Mike Morrice). The Greens are going to desperately target this seat too, but I'm not sure if they have any strong candidates to do it. Not sure if the Liberals will bother finding a good candidate, but if they do, we're in for a real dog fight.

[toaster]

I'd imagine Beisan Zubi takes another run at it (she ran for the seat federally, and got squeezed out by Mike Morrice). The Greens are going to desperately target this seat too, but I'm not sure if they have any strong candidates to do it. Not sure if the Liberals will bother finding a good candidate, but if they do, we're in for a real dog fight.

Wait, what?  That would be the one WRONG candidate to choose.  Squeezed out?  She finished 3rd - almost 4th, a point ahead of the Liberal candidate who withdrew his candidacy.  Kitchener OVERWHELMINGLY said no to her.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd imagine Beisan Zubi takes another run at it (she ran for the seat federally, and got squeezed out by Mike Morrice). The Greens are going to desperately target this seat too, but I'm not sure if they have any strong candidates to do it. Not sure if the Liberals will bother finding a good candidate, but if they do, we're in for a real dog fight.

Wait, what?  That would be the one WRONG candidate to choose.  Squeezed out?  She finished 3rd - almost 4th, a point ahead of the Liberal candidate who withdrew his candidacy.  Kitchener OVERWHELMINGLY said no to her.

She lost because Morrice was seen as the main progressive candidate. Had he not been on the ballot, she would've won the seat. I don't think the election was a repudiation of her candidacy. Unless there's something I don't know?

[adma]

Unless Mike Schreiner has some Morrice-coattails strategy up his sleeve, I'd imagine a likelier NDP-Lib race w/the Greens playing spoiler--that is, if the Libs decide to foot a "star candidate" of sorts.  But of course, the NDP-Lib-Green donnybrook could just wind up pushing the *Tories* up the middle, if they keep and build upon their quarter-of-the-vote rough floor...

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't see the Tories getting much more than 25% of the vote. The non Tory vote would have to be pretty evenly split for the Cons to pick it up.

[adma]

I can't see the Tories getting much more than 25% of the vote. The non Tory vote would have to be pretty evenly split for the Cons to pick it up.

Yet you can never underestimate DoFo's opportunism at potentially offering someone who might be good for a *third* of a vote and feasting off perceived disarray on the left--divide and conquer, etc.

Yeah, the real point about Mike Morrice vs Beisan Zubi is that once their incumbent candidate withdrew, the Liberal team basically threw in its lot with Morrice as a proxy--kind of the inverse of their Fredericton Jenica Atwin strategy, and fortuitously building on Morrice's own surprise result in '19.  The Grits *really* want to avoid giving the NDP oxygen if they can help it...

[toaster]

I'd imagine Beisan Zubi takes another run at it (she ran for the seat federally, and got squeezed out by Mike Morrice). The Greens are going to desperately target this seat too, but I'm not sure if they have any strong candidates to do it. Not sure if the Liberals will bother finding a good candidate, but if they do, we're in for a real dog fight.

Wait, what?  That would be the one WRONG candidate to choose.  Squeezed out?  She finished 3rd - almost 4th, a point ahead of the Liberal candidate who withdrew his candidacy.  Kitchener OVERWHELMINGLY said no to her.

She lost because Morrice was seen as the main progressive candidate. Had he not been on the ballot, she would've won the seat. I don't think the election was a repudiation of her candidacy. Unless there's something I don't know?

So the Liberal candidate was off the ballot, now all it would have taken to win is to get the Green candidate off the ballot as well.  Then she would have won.  Do you hear yourself?  Yes, in any riding in the country where the CONs got less than 50%, any candidate who didn't have the other 2 progressive options would have won.

Anyway, I hope they find a good candidate, will be curious to see what kind of candidate caliber Marit is able to get - if there really is hope that the ONDP will form government, they will need to be able to get some credible candidates.