Canadian by-elections 2023

[adma]

I doubt we'll see Oxford flip since it isn't a direct parallel to the H-N situation but I'll be watching the margin intently. Same with Winnipeg South Centre, no contentious nominations there to my knowledge but it's the kind of riding I'd imagine the Tories would have their eyes on if they want to form government.

Maybe more the kind of riding they'd have their eyes on if they want to form *majority* government--and w/a left-splitting assist from the NDP, if need be.  (Sort of like, 2011 dynamics all over again.)  But given the unpopularity of the provincial Tories, they might have a problem there...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I doubt we'll see Oxford flip since it isn't a direct parallel to the H-N situation but I'll be watching the margin intently. Same with Winnipeg South Centre, no contentious nominations there to my knowledge but it's the kind of riding I'd imagine the Tories would have their eyes on if they want to form government.

Maybe more the kind of riding they'd have their eyes on if they want to form *majority* government--and w/a left-splitting assist from the NDP, if need be.  (Sort of like, 2011 dynamics all over again.)  But given the unpopularity of the provincial Tories, they might have a problem there...

And even in 2011, Winnipeg South Centre barely went Tory. I would say that in the current climate, this isn't really a riding the CPC needs to win for a majority. For what it's worth, 338Canada doesn't even see it in the CPC's top 200 most likely wins.

[adma]

I doubt we'll see Oxford flip since it isn't a direct parallel to the H-N situation but I'll be watching the margin intently. Same with Winnipeg South Centre, no contentious nominations there to my knowledge but it's the kind of riding I'd imagine the Tories would have their eyes on if they want to form government.

Maybe more the kind of riding they'd have their eyes on if they want to form *majority* government--and w/a left-splitting assist from the NDP, if need be.  (Sort of like, 2011 dynamics all over again.)  But given the unpopularity of the provincial Tories, they might have a problem there...

And even in 2011, Winnipeg South Centre barely went Tory. I would say that in the current climate, this isn't really a riding the CPC needs to win for a majority. For what it's worth, 338Canada doesn't even see it in the CPC's top 200 most likely wins.

Yeah, we'd be dealing w/an absolute fluke in an absolute landslide that favours the big-tent Conservatives, either out of 3rd-place Lib oblivion a la 2011 or out of a return to the "Red Tory" viability of half a century ago or so.  And even if it got nabbed by the Cons in a byelection because byelections can be like that, I can see it as the kind of seat which the Libs can take back in the more "normalizing" circumstances of a general election, even if they wind up losing to the Cons at large.

And in 2019--the year when Andrew Scheer's leadership led to CPC mandates in the Prairies that could out-Harper Harper--that former 2011-elected Con office holder in WSC fell more than 15 points short in a takeback bid.  If CPC's looking to gov't, they'd look to Winnipeg South or even StB-StV or Elm-Trans instead.  WSC is more in "lucky bonus" country.

[trebor204]

Winnipeg South has voted for the winning party since is was re-created back in 1988, which makes 11 straight elections.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Winnipeg South has voted for the winning party since is was re-created back in 1988, which makes 11 straight elections.

Is it the longest bellwether now? Peterborough--Kawartha used to be the classic bellwether riding, but the streak was broken in the last election. Sarnia--Lambton had a 16-election streak, but it was broken in 2015 and is safe Tory now due to the SW Ontario realignment.

Edit: Nope, that title is now jointly held by Burlington and my own riding of St. Catharines, both going back to 1984. That's federal anyway, provincially St Kits has gone NDP for the last two elections, and Burlington used to elect Tories provincially when McGuinty was premier.

[Hatman 🍁]

I believe Peterborough and Scarborough Centre are the provincial bellwethers. That is if you consider the Tories as having "won" the 1985 election.

Federally, it's a bunch of different ridings going back to 1984. Sarnia was indeed the best bellwether until 2015, going back to the 1960s.

[adma]

I believe Peterborough and Scarborough Centre are the provincial bellwethers. That is if you consider the Tories as having "won" the 1985 election.

And even Scarborough Centre is more a matter of nomenclature than anything--in some ways, the present SC might be seen as more of a "natural" heir to the former Scarborough-Ellesmere, and what was formerly Scarborough Centre might be the kind of place Mitzie Hunter would be representing now were we still going by 80s riding boundaries...

[adma]

Edit: Nope, that title is now jointly held by Burlington and my own riding of St. Catharines, both going back to 1984. That's federal anyway, provincially St Kits has gone NDP for the last two elections, and Burlington used to elect Tories provincially when McGuinty was premier.

And of course, prior to those last two elections, St. Kitts was represented by Liberal Jim Bradley continuously from 1977, through successive PC, Liberal, NDP, PC, and Liberal regimes.

[MaxQue]

I believe Peterborough and Scarborough Centre are the provincial bellwethers. That is if you consider the Tories as having "won" the 1985 election.

Federally, it's a bunch of different ridings going back to 1984. Sarnia was indeed the best bellwether until 2015, going back to the 1960s.

I tried to to that for every province
BC: no clear answer, there is a bunch of ridings (roughly 10) who voted Lib from 2001 to 2017 and NDP in 2020, all of them also voted Liberal in 1996.
Alberta: Lac Ste. Anne last voted for the opposition in 1917.
Saskatchewan: Yorkton last voted for the opposition in 1960.
Manitoba: Rossmere last voted for the opposition in 1977 (they instead releected losing PM Ed Schreyer)
Quebec: Saint-Francois last voted for the opposition in 1998.
New Brunswick: the wierd language patterns means the bellweather is Saint Croix, who last voted for the opposition in 2006.
Nova Scotia: Eastern Shore last voted for the opposition in 1967.
PEI: The area of the current Stanhope-Marshfield is the only area having voted fro each government since 1996.
Newfoundland: Gander last voted for the opposition in 1985.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've calculated all of these before too. Looks like you don't take predecessor ridings into account, because Sainte-Rose has voted for the winner since 1970.

[trebor204]

The Winnipeg Free Press is reporting that PPC leader Maxime Bernier will announce on Friday that he is running in the Portage-Lisgar By-Election.
In 2021, the Conservatives (Candice Bergen) got 52%, while PPC (Solomon Wiebe) got 21%

[Upper Canada Tory]

The Winnipeg Free Press is reporting that PPC leader Maxime Bernier will announce on Friday that he is running in the Portage-Lisgar By-Election.
In 2021, the Conservatives (Candice Bergen) got 52%, while PPC (Solomon Wiebe) got 21%

And given that vaccine mandates are no longer an 'election issue', you can expect the amount of PPC support to drop precipitously.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Winnipeg Free Press is reporting that PPC leader Maxime Bernier will announce on Friday that he is running in the Portage-Lisgar By-Election.
In 2021, the Conservatives (Candice Bergen) got 52%, while PPC (Solomon Wiebe) got 21%

And given that vaccine mandates are no longer an 'election issue', you can expect the amount of PPC support to drop precipitously.

I'm not sure about precipitously. I know in that riding, the uber-conservative Mennonite vote really helped the PPC. With the vaccine issue fading away, PPC has been pivoting to social conservatism as a way of distinguishing them from the CPC. In ridings like these with a heavy religious right element, I think the PPC will still maintain a decent amount of support. Maybe not in a byelection though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mitzie Hunter officially resigned her seat. Wonder if she'll run in the by-election to succeed herself if she loses the mayoral election.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Oh, I didn't realize Bernier himself is running in Portage--Lisgar. Yeah that makes it a little more interesting, certainly more so than his sad attempt to run in the York Centre byelection (where he didn't even get enough votes to play spoiler lol). He won't win, but he might maintain 2021 margins.

[lilTommy]

Mitzie Hunter officially resigned her seat. Wonder if she'll run in the by-election to succeed herself if she loses the mayoral election.

Has that happened before?
I'd assume her days at QP would be over now. If she fails at her run for mayor (very likely) she could run for council and likely be a shoe-in

[Benjamin Frank]

Mitzie Hunter officially resigned her seat. Wonder if she'll run in the by-election to succeed herself if she loses the mayoral election.

Has that happened before?
I'd assume her days at QP would be over now. If she fails at her run for mayor (very likely) she could run for council and likely be a shoe-in

There are provinces that have rules that if an M.P changes parties they have to step down and run in a by-election but I don't think that's ever been triggered.

However, Liberal M.P Sheila Copps was found to have promised in the 1993 election that the Liberals would get rid of the GST and not replace it with anything. As punishment, she agreed to resign her seat and immediately ran in the by-election.

https://www.cbc.ca/archives/copps-gst-byelection-1996-1.5541297
The GST, a broken promise and a lot of drama for Sheila Copps

[Hatman 🍁]

And it was the norm back in the day when you had to resign your seat if appointed to cabinet.

[DL]

Mitzie Hunter officially resigned her seat. Wonder if she'll run in the by-election to succeed herself if she loses the mayoral election.

Has that happened before?
I'd assume her days at QP would be over now. If she fails at her run for mayor (very likely) she could run for council and likely be a shoe-in

I have heard that a more likely plan for her is that the current federal Liberal MP for her Scarborough-Guildwood seat is John McKay who was first elected in 1993 and is likely to retire. She could run federally there.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And it was the norm back in the day when you had to resign your seat if appointed to cabinet.

What? So you would be elected as MP/MPP/MLA, and if you get appointed to cabinet, resign your seat in the legislature and let someone else take it?

[Estrella]

And it was the norm back in the day when you had to resign your seat if appointed to cabinet.

What? So you would be elected as MP/MPP/MLA, and if you get appointed to cabinet, resign your seat in the legislature and let someone else take it?

No. It was even stupider than that. You'd be elected as an MP, appointed to cabinet, resign your seat, stand in the by-election, get reelected (presumably) and carry on as if nothing happened.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the most famous casualties of this in Britain was Winston Churchill, who lost Manchester North West this way in 1908 and re-entered the Commons at a by-election in Dundee shortly after,* but by far the funniest casualty was Arthur Griffith-Boscawen who lost his Dudley seat in 1921 after being appointed as Minister for Agriculture. He was then returned at a by-election for Taunton, only to lose that seat a year later at the 1922 election. A by-election was then engineered at Mitcham, which seemed like a safe enough seat... which he proceeded to lose to Labour's Chuter Ede (a former Liberal who became Attlee's famously illiberal Home Secretary two decades later) and that was the end of Griffith-Boscawen's political career.

_{*The winner of that by-election, William 'Jix' Joynson-Hicks, then made a rather unpleasant antisemitic remark at a dinner hosted by a Jewish Friendly Society, which was an interesting move in a constituency that then contained all of Manchester Jewry. He lost his seat at the first 1910 election, and re-emerged as an MP in the London suburbs. He later served alongside Churchill in Baldwin's second administration as an infamously authoritarian Home Secretary.}

[adma]

Mitzie Hunter officially resigned her seat. Wonder if she'll run in the by-election to succeed herself if she loses the mayoral election.

Has that happened before?
I'd assume her days at QP would be over now. If she fails at her run for mayor (very likely) she could run for council and likely be a shoe-in

The PCs' Roch LaSalle federally in '81, when he resigned to lead the Union Nationale in that year's provincial election, lost, and returned to Ottawa.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

And it was the norm back in the day when you had to resign your seat if appointed to cabinet.

What? So you would be elected as MP/MPP/MLA, and if you get appointed to cabinet, resign your seat in the legislature and let someone else take it?

No. It was even stupider than that. You'd be elected as an MP, appointed to cabinet, resign your seat, stand in the by-election, get reelected (presumably) and carry on as if nothing happened.

What was the logic behind that stupidity ?

[Benjamin Frank]

And it was the norm back in the day when you had to resign your seat if appointed to cabinet.

What? So you would be elected as MP/MPP/MLA, and if you get appointed to cabinet, resign your seat in the legislature and let someone else take it?

No. It was even stupider than that. You'd be elected as an MP, appointed to cabinet, resign your seat, stand in the by-election, get reelected (presumably) and carry on as if nothing happened.

What was the logic behind that stupidity ?

An M.P was considered to be in the service of their constituency, and if they wanted to be part of the executive, they needed the approval of their constituents.