Canadian by-elections 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

Bernier now barely over 10% and not that much ahead of the Liberals. I know his support is likely concentrated in part of the riding, but this is still a very poor showing so far. (20 of 248 polls reporting.)

[adma]

Bernier now barely over 10% and not that much ahead of the Liberals. I know his support is likely concentrated in part of the riding, but this is still a very poor showing so far. (20 of 248 polls reporting.)

Judging from the '21 results, PPC *could* rack up the votes in the advance balloting.

[trebor204]

The poll in WSC is most likely a Personal Care Home or any small mobile poll

[Хahar 🤔]

Not only does it seem likely that the NDP will avoid the embarrassment of finishing in second place in NDG, but the NDP candidate is currently in fourth place, which is surely even better.

[Benjamin Frank]

The poll in WSC is most likely a Personal Care Home or any small mobile poll

Only 5 of 198 polls reporting to be sure, but the NDP has taken the lead.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The poll in WSC is most likely a Personal Care Home or any small mobile poll

Only 5 of 198 polls reporting to be sure, but the NDP has taken the lead.

Back to a Liberal lead now. Provincial dynamics (unpopular PC government, surging NDP opposition) could also help the NDP and/or depress CPC turnout...but still 7/198 polls, I wouldn't think much of it.

[Benjamin Frank]

Up to 10 polls now and the NDP are keeping it close.

The other ridings have definitely taken shape. It seems in Oxford most Conservatives unhappy with the candidate manipulations have voted for the CHP rather than for the Liberals.

However, the CHP support also seems to be concentrated in a few polls, so there may be more than one thing going on with them.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

24% reporting in Portage--Lisgar, and no signs of life from "Max" Bernier, lagging way behind at 17% (CPC at 64%).

[Benjamin Frank]

Unless a reporting error, the Liberals have now pulled well in front in WSC.

[trebor204]

It looks like the regular larger urban polls have started to report in WSC.

Normally in elections, the smaller polls get reported first, (easier to count) which tend to have a different demographics then the actual riding (personal care homes, first nation reserves,)

[adma]

WSC: unexpected how stubborn the early NDP vote was; I'd presume it was in "party-friendly" areas--but then, boom.

P-L: landslide against Max suggests egg on Quito Maggi's face, but that's not knowing how much is coming in from your usual Mennonite/evangelical types of places.  (And Max so far isn't *that* far from '21's share.)

Oxford: Well, the "Mackenzie Liberals" are performing as promised--but what's w/the Christian Heritage?  And ahead of PPC?  Is that an organized protest against the barred socon CPC candidate (i.e. does he have *that* endorsement?).

NDGW:  Aside from all matters of relative order, the fact that Green/Con/NDP are clustered so close to one another seems true to "natural dynamics".  (And that NDP + Green would be good for somewhere around 25-30% or even better *combined* might be what the Dippers would base hopes on.  Unless the Greens are playing to win beyond a byelection, of course.)

[Oryxslayer]

So is now the appropriate time to bring back the trope of: "Constituency/Seat/Riding/District polls are always untrustworthy?"

[adma]

Up to 10 polls now and the NDP are keeping it close.

The other ridings have definitely taken shape. It seems in Oxford most Conservatives unhappy with the candidate manipulations have voted for the CHP rather than for the Liberals.

However, the CHP support also seems to be concentrated in a few polls, so there may be more than one thing going on with them.

Those on the *right* unhappy w/the manipulations are going for CHP.  However, the Lib vote rise suggests that "Mackenzie moderates" are migrating in even bigger numbers.  (Well, maybe.  A lot of that Lib vote is through NDP collapse as well)

[trebor204]

CBC has called Portage-Lisgar to the Conservatives (Branden Leslie)

[Benjamin Frank]

So is now the appropriate time to bring back the trope of: "Constituency/Seat/Riding/District polls are always untrustworthy?"

Other than Portage-Lisgar, they seem to have actually been fairly accurate, at least in terms of showing what would be competitive and what wouldn't.

[adma]

And *so far* in WSC, 16 candidates have zero votes, 7 have 1 vote, 8 have 2 votes, 12 have 3-7 votes...

[Oryxslayer]

And *so far* in WSC, 16 candidates have zero votes, 7 have 1 vote, 8 have 2 votes, 12 have 3-7 votes...

All praise the noble and productive work of the longest ballot committee!

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Yeah this is more or less proceeding basically the way I'd have expected. I feel like people's expectations were kind of excessive, probably from taking underpants eater Quito Maggi too seriously.

The Greens will be at least okay with a 2nd place showing in NDG-W, I don't think anyone seriously expected them to contest the riding. In future elections with a potentially weaker Liberal government and no Trudeau they can try to improve and build up a base of support in Montréal.

Similarly, while Bernier isn't anywhere near victory if the current trend continues he'll probably do about as well as he did in 2021 which is frankly more than most people would have given him until that Mainstreet poll (okay, so Maggi didn't do that badly, maybe we can upgrade the underwear to a sock). The Tories devoted $500,000 and a direct visit from PP to defend one of their safest ridings with the goal of crushing Bernier, probably because if he makes it to the next Federal election with an intact party he's guaranteed a spot in the debates. Preventing PP from having to walk that tightrope might have been worth it if Bernier was actually crushed but as things stand he can just stick around and try again next time when the Tories can't afford to go all out in his riding.

The Oxford result seems to be bad for the Tories, but not in a way that can really be extrapolated anywhere else. The moral of the story is be very careful of when and where you put in a parachute candidate.

[2952-0-0]

The margin in Oxford has been creeping downward and is now below 5%. Khanna will still likely scrape out a victory, but scraping out a win in an extremely safe seat when the incumbent government is unpopular is a big embarrassment.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumour is not much of Woodstock has been counted yet. The city will be key as to whether the Liberals can pull this one out.

[adma]

The Greens will be at least okay with a 2nd place showing in NDG-W, I don't think anyone seriously expected them to contest the riding. In future elections with a potentially weaker Liberal government and no Trudeau they can try to improve and build up a base of support in Montréal.

Though in the last little while, the NDP, and then the Conservatives, have taken 2nd spot and pushed the Greens to 4th--but w/so few votes separating the 3 that *anything* can happen...

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Yeah Oxford is still very much in play, although this is the kind of race that's more important in terms of the narrative it creates. Khanna could win by the narrowest of margins, and while it would still be embarrassing for the CPC to have nearly choked a safe seat, we'll all forget about it and move on soon enough. Whereas if Khanna loses by the narrowest of margins, the narrative will be that of incompetent leadership, which is the last thing Poilievre needs as the leader of an often unstable and internally divided party.

[adma]

Now NDG's showing CPC 2059, NDP 2049, GP 2046.

And next thing you know, it's GP 2103, NDP 2082, CPC 2076.

[Benjamin Frank]

The Conservative ridings have the highest turnout.

It seems very likely that the 'longest ballot committee' succeeded in depressing turnout.

[adma]

The Conservative ridings have the highest turnout.

It seems very likely that the 'longest ballot committee' succeeded in depressing turnout.

Also that WSC wasn't perceived as being "a race" the way that CPC vs PPC in P-L or CPC vs LPC in Oxford was.  The result there really felt like a foregone conclusion.