India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

Some signs of internal troubles for NDA in Assam.

1. Amguri MLA and AGP General Secretary Prodip Hazarika resigns his posts with AGP in protest of delimitation.
2. Four-term Nowgong MP for BJP and former Union Minister, Rajen Gohain, quits his administrative post in Assam government over delimitation.
3. BJP MLA and former minister and state president, Siddhartha Bhattacharya, the uncle of Arnab Goswami, wrote to the BJP high command, complaining about the newer generation of BJP leaders who have mostly come over from INC. Bhattacharya is one of the BJP originals of Assam and has been launching invectives about the people who once stepped on portraits of Vajpayee and attacked the BJP headquarters in Guwahati having control of the party today.

I think these sorts of backstabbing and battles are pretty common for all parties including the BJP.  The BJP growing by taking into a large number of INC leaders is a problem but that is not unique to Assam.  The fact is as long as Modi is at the top of the BJP ticket and wins the LS elections I think most of these issues mostly solve themselves.  They do become risks for the BJP are for when Modi moves on since most BJP solutions for problems seem to be about using Modi in some way.

[eos]

Official new map for Assam. Some really ugly boundaries, but I guess that comes with gerrymandering. 

[eos]

BJP wants to unify Hindu's politically. The problem is that there are big intra-regional cultural and political schisms in India. Dravidian South vs Indo-Aryan North, Bengali vs Assamese in the East, and Marathi vs non-Marathi, etc. This is not to mention the problem of caste.

Language as a tool of unification is very difficult. Hindi will never be accepted by the South.
TN CM Stalin denounces Amit Shah push for Hindi, cautious against igniting ’embers’ of 1965 agitations

Bollywood's Hindi film industry once spread across non-Hindi regions in the East, but they have always been rejected in the South, with its own booming film industries. Now these Southern films are spreading across India, even outperforming Hindi films and ensuring Hindi popular culture does not become monodominant in India.

Religion seems to be the most convenient tool. In the BJP's view, the electoral success of Hindu nationalism drew parties like the Marathi Shiv Sena and the Assamese AGP into their fold, more or less forcing these parties to adopt Hinduvta in some form. The AGP used to launch invectives against Bengali's in general, but have moderated it into Bengali Hindu are refugees and Bengali Muslim are "illegal economic migrants" and "cultural aliens".

I think that's why they prefer the Hindu Rashtra as opposed to a civilisation state with a dominant culture and language like China.

All valid points.  This is why I always thought the BJP vision should be an Indian civilizational l state with a focus on Hinduism as a part of but not the entire unifying catalyst.

One other part of Modi's speech I find problematic is that it is very Indus Valley-centric.  For Modi, the conquest of the Indus Valley under the Ghurid represents the conquest of India when in reality that conquest did not affect the Deccan or the Deep South until much later.  This of course fits with my impression that the BJP's vision is a Indo-Aryan Hindu Rastra so the Dravidians are cut out of this narrative along with Muslims.  

The BJP retort would be "The Muslims will convert since they are merely descendants of Hindus that were forced to convert to Islam and the Dravidainas will be assimilated through Sanskritisation."  My main problem with that beyond the issue of Tamils being extremely proud of their Tamil language and the legacy of empires like the Cholas is that the Hindi heartland part of India is the poorest and most backward part of India.  I think this vision has some chance of success if the Hindi heartland like it was over 1000 years ago, can become the most advanced part of India.  So the BJP should really focus on that since they are now the party of the Hindi heartland under Modi anyway.

That is one aspect of BJP's Hinduvta that troubles people. There has always been an undercurrent of Hindu(Hindi) India in their rhetoric and actions. Admittedly, there is some signs of success on that front. Assam has both Indo-Aryan and Tibeto-Burmese populations. When these Assamese Indo-Aryans speak Hindi, they look and sound indistinguishable from North Indians. The growth of Hindi in Assam has been accompanied by some level of cultural integration with north India. This is BJP's dream scenario, but a nightmare for Assamese regionalists/nationalists who have traditionally supported AGP.

Another north-east state, Arunachal, which China claims as part of Tibet, traditionally spoke a pidgin language based on Assamese as a lingua franca. However, the Indian government under INC made a successful effort to promote Hindi as a lingua franca. Even the name they gave to the state is in Hindi! The INC, for all their talk on pluralism, was not adverse to integrating India through promotion of Hindi under Rajiv Gandhi. However, the association of Hindi with BJP's Hinduvta has led them to back off on that front.

If BJP hopes Sanskritisation will work in tandem with Hinduvta elsewhere, they will be disappointed. The South has too much cultural heritage and pride to accept it. They should also be wary about cultural wars breaking out over language. It is one area where I will guarantee they will find themselves in the backfoot against the INC. Of course, INC can't come out too strongly against Hindi either since they still hope to become the natural party of government by retaking the Hindi belt. I think BJP's Hinduvta plank has potential for more growth if they completely disavowed themselves from any kind of Hindi talk. I've long suspected that the so-called Left Front Communist Parties in WB and Kerela are actually centre-right opposition to INC that are too prideful in their regional culture to accept BJP. BJP has somehow broken through in WB, but only time will tell if it's a temporary switch by Left voters to prevent TMC hegemony or not

As far as history is concerned, Indians still have a very poor understanding of the nuances. For Indians, it's still about who the rulers were, their caste and religion. When you go past the surface, one notices that the Mughal empire depended on a vast number of Hindu feudatories and many Hindu dignitaries played an important role in the administration and army. From one perspective, Mughal power is Indian power! Hardly 1000 years of subjugations that BJP would have you believe. I agree with you on the silliness of conceding that cultural space to others.

[eos]

Some signs of internal troubles for NDA in Assam.

1. Amguri MLA and AGP General Secretary Prodip Hazarika resigns his posts with AGP in protest of delimitation.
2. Four-term Nowgong MP for BJP and former Union Minister, Rajen Gohain, quits his administrative post in Assam government over delimitation.
3. BJP MLA and former minister and state president, Siddhartha Bhattacharya, the uncle of Arnab Goswami, wrote to the BJP high command, complaining about the newer generation of BJP leaders who have mostly come over from INC. Bhattacharya is one of the BJP originals of Assam and has been launching invectives about the people who once stepped on portraits of Vajpayee and attacked the BJP headquarters in Guwahati having control of the party today.

I think these sorts of backstabbing and battles are pretty common for all parties including the BJP.  The BJP growing by taking into a large number of INC leaders is a problem but that is not unique to Assam.  The fact is as long as Modi is at the top of the BJP ticket and wins the LS elections I think most of these issues mostly solve themselves.  They do become risks for the BJP are for when Modi moves on since most BJP solutions for problems seem to be about using Modi in some way.

I agree, just thought it was interesting that all this came out shortly after each other. I think it's obvious that those who lost out with Sonowal's replacement with HBS are still upset about it. HBS is at the top now, the darling of pro-BJP media in the North as their expert and troubleshooter in the north-east. However, first sign of trouble, Sonowal and his camp will move against him.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/180823/rahul-gandhi-contest-lok-sabha-elections-amethi.html

"Rahul will Contest from Amethi in 2024 LS Polls: Congress UP Chief Ajay Rai"

[eos]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/180823/rahul-gandhi-contest-lok-sabha-elections-amethi.html

"Rahul will Contest from Amethi in 2024 LS Polls: Congress UP Chief Ajay Rai"

I think this would be a good choice. Unfortunately, Ajay Rai has qualified his statement that he was only expressing the demands of the people.

Rahul Gandhi From Amethi? Congress UP Chief Goes From "Definitely" To...

[jaichind]

Distribution of India's GDP by state.  Karnataka, TN, Gujarat, and undivided AP(AP+Telangana) are all slightly above UP.  Of course, in PPP terms UP will be higher since it is almost certain prices are lower in UP.

[jaichind]

That is one aspect of BJP's Hinduvta that troubles people. There has always been an undercurrent of Hindu(Hindi) India in their rhetoric and actions. Admittedly, there is some signs of success on that front. Assam has both Indo-Aryan and Tibeto-Burmese populations. When these Assamese Indo-Aryans speak Hindi, they look and sound indistinguishable from North Indians. The growth of Hindi in Assam has been accompanied by some level of cultural integration with north India. This is BJP's dream scenario, but a nightmare for Assamese regionalists/nationalists who have traditionally supported AGP.
 

I have to assume the old Ahom regionalist vote accepts this because the perceived threat from Bengali immigration into Assam is viewed as greater.  The BJP does seem to be doing something about its vs words but no action from AGP and INC over the year even if it is stopping Muslim Bengali immigration only.

In many ways, this seems to be the power of Modi.  Modi has a lot of gifts which include being a great orator and a PR expert.  But his real superpower is being a Gujarati (not from the Hindi heartland) and OBC. So he is in a unique position to combine his identity with the old BJP appeal to Hindi Upper caste identity to unite Upper Caste and OBC in both the Hindi heartland as well as non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states into one mega BJP bloc.  It will be interesting to see if, after Modi leaves the scene (in the late 2020s?), can the BJP hold this mega bloc together or was that super-bloc created by Modi unique to Modi and not transferable to the next BJP leader (be it Amit Shah or Yogi Adityanath)

[eos]

That is one aspect of BJP's Hinduvta that troubles people. There has always been an undercurrent of Hindu(Hindi) India in their rhetoric and actions. Admittedly, there is some signs of success on that front. Assam has both Indo-Aryan and Tibeto-Burmese populations. When these Assamese Indo-Aryans speak Hindi, they look and sound indistinguishable from North Indians. The growth of Hindi in Assam has been accompanied by some level of cultural integration with north India. This is BJP's dream scenario, but a nightmare for Assamese regionalists/nationalists who have traditionally supported AGP.
 

I have to assume the old Ahom regionalist vote accepts this because the perceived threat from Bengali immigration into Assam is viewed as greater.  The BJP does seem to be doing something about its vs words but no action from AGP and INC over the year even if it is stopping Muslim Bengali immigration only.

In many ways, this seems to be the power of Modi.  Modi has a lot of gifts which include being a great orator and a PR expert.  But his real superpower is being a Gujarati (not from the Hindi heartland) and OBC. So he is in a unique position to combine his identity with the old BJP appeal to Hindi Upper caste identity to unite Upper Caste and OBC in both the Hindi heartland as well as non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states into one mega BJP bloc.  It will be interesting to see if, after Modi leaves the scene (in the late 2020s?), can the BJP hold this mega bloc together or was that super-bloc created by Modi unique to Modi and not transferable to the next BJP leader (be it Amit Shah or Yogi Adityanath)

Assamese is an ethnolinguistic category including both Indo-Aryan caste Hindu and "Sanskritised" Tai/Tibeto-Burmese tribes without ST status, the most prominent of whom are the Ahoms. Assam INC was historically dominated by the Assamese and led by caste Hindu who engaged in cultural wars with Bengali Hindu's and ST population over recognition of languages and cultures other than Assamese. Many tribes mobilised, some militarised, and eventually forced the Indian government to carve out separate states like Mizoram and Nagaland from Assam. Others received extensive autonomy within Assam under the Sixth Schedule like the Bodo's, or other more limited forms of autonomy.

Many Assamese went over to the AGP with the advent of the Bangladeshi immigration issue, and formed the core of AGP's quasi-nationalist vote, with underground sympathy for ULFA. BJP is strongest with Assamese caste Hindu and non-Assamese Hindu (Bengali, Tea Tribe ST) who can associate with the Indo-Aryan background and Hindu power narrative of BJP. They are more open to Hindi, the Tea Tribes actually being native speakers of Hindi. INC is still strong with Assamese of tribal origins, especially the Ahoms. The most prominent anti-BJP leaders outside INC are both Ahoms, AJP and RD presidents Lurinjyoti Gogoi and Akhil Gogoi. I think this is why BJP keeps AGP around in state elections. In 2014 LS elections, Modi turned it into a presidential contest, but BJP can't make state elections indigenous vs non-indigenous without THE indigenous party.

‘Not a single Bihari should be seen’: Inside the Veer Lachit Sena’s war on ‘outsiders’ in Assam

These are the kind of people who are included in the vote base of AGP and supported the ULFA in the 1980s and 1990s. They still resent the loss of all the territories included in British Assam, and vehemently oppose more ST tribes getting Sixth Schedule status. You are right that the perceived demographic threat from from Bengali Muslims is deemed more important for now. However, if a cultural war erupts over the primacy of Assamese culture, BJP will be in the backfoot. Notice how AGP had to drop the BJP temporarily due to the CAA protests. Quite frankly, Assam BJP got saved by the Covid pandemic which cut off the oxygen from the protests.

I agree Modi is uniquely qualified in a way that few other leaders are to help his party win elections. HBS actually thinks he has a chance in the future to succeed Modi. He spends a lot of time outside Assam these days as a star campaigner for the BJP in many states.  

[eos]

Distribution of India's GDP by state.  Karnataka, TN, Gujarat, and undivided AP(AP+Telangana) are all slightly above UP.  Of course, in PPP terms UP will be higher since it is almost certain prices are lower in UP.

Sooner or later the number of LS seats will have to be reallocated by India's modern population. They have held it off for a very long time now. The South will lose out greatly because of its population control while the Hindi Belt will become even more influential, especially UP. You are probably right that BJP can just stay in government and dominate culturally by ensuring its dominance in the Hindi belt.

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraphindia.com/west-bengal/trinamul-bjp-trade-charges-over-demolition-of-a-construction-at-a-saffron-party-leader-sunil-singhs-house/cid/1960120

"Trinamul-BJP trade charges over demolition of a construction at a saffron party leader's house"

It seems this time a BJP leader is the victim of bulldozer politics when his house was bulldozed by the AITC administration over "building code violations" in a clear example of selective prosecution that BJP governments have done in other states.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/chandigarh-news/congress-mla-sandeep-jakhar-suspended-for-anti-party-activities-after-supporting-bjp-chief-uncle-statement-101692472746203.html

"Congress suspends Abohar MLA Sandeep Jakhar for ‘anti-party’ activities"

This makes sense as he is the nephew of the former Punjab INC chief and current Punjab BJP chief Sunil Jakhar.

[jaichind]

Sooner or later the number of LS seats will have to be reallocated by India's modern population. They have held it off for a very long time now. The South will lose out greatly because of its population control while the Hindi Belt will become even more influential, especially UP. You are probably right that BJP can just stay in government and dominate culturally by ensuring its dominance in the Hindi belt.

Yes, it is clear that Hindi belt states will gain relative to non-Hindi Indo-Aryan states which will gain more from the Dravidian states.  This benefits BJP only if they can hold on to the OBC vote.  Note the surge in Hindi belt states is in the OBC and Dalit-heavy states.  Upper Caste heavy Hindi belt states like HP and Uttarakhand are not gaining as much.  So the BJP will gain  in this future as long as it retains the gains it has made with the OBC and Dalit vote in this last decade.

[jaichind]

ABP C-Voter poll for Chhattisgarh

               Seats     Vote share
INC           51              46%
BJP           38              41%
Others        1

Given the incumbency advantage in polling at this stage I read this as a marginal INC lead

https://twitter.com/TimesAlgebraIND/status/1693253498874527776

Best CM
CM Bhupesh Baghel (INC)         48.8%
Fromer CM Raman Singh (BJP)  23.7%
T. S Singhdev (INC)                  13.0%
Ramesh Bais (BJP)                     1.2%

Best PM (Modi vs Rahul Gandhi)
Modi               71%
Rahul Gandhi  24%

INC had the edge in CM face but Modi clearly way ahead in the LS vote

[jaichind]

Where we are so far in the 5 assembly elections later this year

Telangana - lean BRS - INC and BJP will split the anti-BRS vote
Chhattisgarh - lean INC
MP - tossup, tiny INC edge
Rajasthan - Solid BJP
Mizoram - confused 3-way battle between MNF, INC+, and ZPM - most likely lean ZPM given the events of Manipuf

[eos]

Where we are so far in the 5 assembly elections later this year

Telangana - lean BRS - INC and BJP will split the anti-BRS vote
Chhattisgarh - lean INC
MP - tossup, tiny INC edge
Rajasthan - Solid BJP
Mizoram - confused 3-way battle between MNF, INC+, and ZPM - most likely lean ZPM given the events of Manipuf

Peoples Pulse came out with a survey for Telangana in early August based on sampling in July.

Telangana mood report 2023

They haven't put out all the statistics. What I gathered is the following:

BRS - Solid majority (67-77?)
INC - 30-35
AIMIM - 7-10
BJP - (less than AIMIM, 5-7?)

BRS - 9-10% ahead of INC  
BJP - 13-14% (distant third)

In 2018:

BRS - 46.87%
INC - 28.43%
BJP - 6.98%
TDP - 3.51%
AIMIM - 2.71%
BSP - 2.06%
Left - 1.61%
IND - 3.25%

[jaichind]

Peoples Pulse came out with a survey for Telangana in early August based on sampling in July.

Telangana mood report 2023

They haven't put out all the statistics. What I gathered is the following:

BRS - Solid majority (67-77?)
INC - 30-35
AIMIM - 7-10
BJP - (less than AIMIM, 5-7?)

BRS - 9-10% ahead of INC  
BJP - 13-14% (distant third)

In 2018:

BRS - 46.87%
INC - 28.43%
BJP - 6.98%
TDP - 3.51%
AIMIM - 2.71%
BSP - 2.06%
Left - 1.61%
IND - 3.25%

The 2018 BJP vote share underestimates BJP.  In 2018 some of the BJP vote tactically voted for TRS (now BRS) to defeat INC-TDP which worked.  Tims time around I do not think we will see a repeat which gives INC a chance and if BRS has lost ground since 2018 due to anti-incumbency.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/rajasthan-congress-ashok-gehlot-sachin-pilot-cwc-8901269/

"Rajasthan Congress truce likely to hold, Ashok Gehlot camp quiet, as Sachin Pilot moves to CWC"
 
Sachin Pilot was "promoted" to CWC which means that Ashok Gehlot is able to lead INC into battle in Rajasthan without Sachin Pilot undermining him during the campaign.  INC is going to lose but this means that chances are that INC can likely get above 50 out 200 seats and avoid a landslide defeat.

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/elections/assembly-elections/telangana-assembly-polls-brs-announces-first-candidate-list-chief-minister-kcr-to-contest-from-gajwel-and-kamareddy-11692610540790.html

"Telangana Assembly polls: BRS releases 115 candidates list, KCR to contest from Gajwel and Kamareddy"

BRS out with their list for pretty much all the seats in Telangana. They seem to have the same strategy as BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh.

[eos]

Where we are so far in the 5 assembly elections later this year

Telangana - lean BRS - INC and BJP will split the anti-BRS vote
Chhattisgarh - lean INC
MP - tossup, tiny INC edge
Rajasthan - Solid BJP
Mizoram - confused 3-way battle between MNF, INC+, and ZPM - most likely lean ZPM given the events of Manipuf

In Mizoram, the ZPM swept recent municipal polls in Lunglei, the second largest city after the state capital, Aizawl. The ZPM surprisingly won all 11 wards.

ZPM - 49.31%
MNF - 29.4%
INC - 20%

In 2018, the four assembly seats in Lunglei municipal boundaries went as follows:

MNF - 36.80%
ZPM - 30.55%
INC -  29.18%

When considering all 7 seats in 2018 in Lunglei district:

MNF - 36%
INC - 35.1%
ZPM - 19.1%

Overall results for Mizoram in 2018:

MNF - 37.7%
INC - 29.98%
ZPM - 22.9%

Turnout in the civic poll was 75% compared to 89% in the entire district in 2018. INC seemed stronger in rural areas in 2018, so I am not sure if we can extrapolate directly from the civic polls to the upcoming election. That said, it seems that MNF is facing anti-incumbency and the opposition vote is consolidating around ZPM.

[eos]

Peoples Pulse came out with a survey for Telangana in early August based on sampling in July.

Telangana mood report 2023

They haven't put out all the statistics. What I gathered is the following:

BRS - Solid majority (67-77?)
INC - 30-35
AIMIM - 7-10
BJP - (less than AIMIM, 5-7?)

BRS - 9-10% ahead of INC  
BJP - 13-14% (distant third)

In 2018:

BRS - 46.87%
INC - 28.43%
BJP - 6.98%
TDP - 3.51%
AIMIM - 2.71%
BSP - 2.06%
Left - 1.61%
IND - 3.25%

The 2018 BJP vote share underestimates BJP.  In 2018 some of the BJP vote tactically voted for TRS (now BRS) to defeat INC-TDP which worked.  Tims time around I do not think we will see a repeat which gives INC a chance and if BRS has lost ground since 2018 due to anti-incumbency.

Congress stares at tall task in poll-bound Telangana

INC seems confident of winning 40+ seats.

In a triangular contest, the Congress has to cross the magic figure of 60 seats in the 119-member state assembly to come to power. However, the party leaders themselves admit that they have to work really hard to reach the figure.

A senior Congress leader, seeking anonymity, said a latest study done by Mindshare Analytics, a political consultancy firm headed by Sunil Kanugolu and hired by the party to work out its poll strategies in Telangana, indicated that the Congress could win 41 assembly seats with comfortable margins.

“In another 42 seats, it has to face a tough battle with the BRS and the BJP. In the remaining 36 seats, the party has little scope to win any seats. So, if the Congress can win at least 20 seats in the second category, it can come to power,” the party leader, quoting the Kanugolu team report, said.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/lucknow/story/lucknow-mayor-sushma-kharakwal-hospital-visit-bulldozer-action-ruckus-2425191-2023-08-23

"Asked to remove shoes outside ICU, Lucknow mayor calls bulldozer at hospital"

An argument broke out between Lucknow mayor Sushma Kharakwal and the staff of a hospital after the former was asked to remove her shoes to enter the ICU. However, the hospital denied such an incident.

[jaichind]

https://thewire.in/government/centre-mulls-new-role-of-chief-investigation-officer-of-india-for-outgoing-ed-chief-mishra-report

"Centre Mulls New Role of 'Chief Investigation Officer of India' for Outgoing ED Chief Mishra: Report"

Sanjay Kumar Mishra is the head of the law enforcement agency ED (Enforcement Directorate).  It seems the Indian government wants him to stay on past his two terms and was told by the Supreme Court that going past 2 terms is illegal.  So the solution is to create a new position called CIO (Chief Investigation Officer) and have ED and CBI(Central Bureau of Investigation) report to the CIO which de facto works around the term limit rule.

[jaichind]

Rajasthan municipal by-election results look good for the BJP.

https://twitter.com/InsideElection/status/1694412629266337955

[jaichind]

India Today C-Voter semiannual Mood of the Nation poll

                        Seat             Vote share
NDA(BJP)        306(287)         43%(38%)
INDIA(INC)     193(74)           41%(20%)
Others             44                  16%

Note how that NDA at this stage is pretty much BJP.  
So SHS(Shinde) and NCP(Ajit) in Maharastratra, AIADMK in TN, AJSU in Jharkhand, JJP in Haryana, AGP and UPPL in Assam, LJP (both factions), HAM, RLJP in Bihar plus some minor parties in Kerala and Northeast all just adds up to 5% of the vote and 19 seats.
Note that INDIA will run duplicate slates in places like WB Kerala Punjab and likely Delhi so their vote share is deceptively high.







NDA seat share seems fairly stable over time


Modi's ratings continue to be high


INC is better off without the Gandhis numbers seem to have turned better for the Gandhis