India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

There is now a risk that the Haryana riots might spread to Delhi.  Parts of the internet have been shut down in Haryana since that was how the riots spread within Haryana.

[jaichind]

Some pictures of the Haryana riot aftermath

[eos]

"Not Possible For Police To Protect Everyone": Haryana Chief Minister Appeals For Calm

Manohar Lal Khattar said, "If there is no amity, there is no security. If everybody insists on opposing each other, there is no security. It is not possible for the police, the army or you and I to protect each and every person"

I get where he is coming from, but not something you should really admit out loud.

[eos]

Not a good few weeks for BJP's security platform.

Manipur violence: Fresh violence erupts in Imphal city, arms allegedly looted from 2nd IRB Bishnupur

Fresh violence in Manipur as Meitei women, armed forces clash; 17 injured

Massive clashes in Manipur's Bishnupur, no more further relaxation in curfew in Imphal

Modiji should say something for our sake, Manipur hockey star Nilakanta Sharma on violence

[eos]

On the other hand, I wonder if the events in Haryana - if they keep up - will polarise elections in MP and Chhattisgarh on religious lines. I can't but help think of an old Yale study on the effects of religious violence on Indian elections.

BJP gains in polls after every riot, says Yale study

[jaichind]

The level of communal violence in India has been going down these last two decades.  Manipur and Haryana will hurt BJP nationally because they have been claiming credit for it and these blowups hurt their narrative.  On the other hand in Haryana itself, this should work to the benefit of the BJP and comes just in time for the 2024 Haryana assembly elections which until now the BJP looks likely to lose.

[eos]

The level of communal violence in India has been going down these last two decades.  Manipur and Haryana will hurt BJP nationally because they have been claiming credit for it and these blowups hurt their narrative.  On the other hand in Haryana itself, this should work to the benefit of the BJP and comes just in time for the 2024 Haryana assembly elections which until now the BJP looks likely to lose.

Is the BJP's Haryana ally JJP realistic in hoping for Muslim support? Their deputy CM Dushyant Chautala blamed the VHP for provoking the clashes.

'Dushyant Chautala has gone blind for Muslim vote bank': VHP slams Haryana DyCM for blaming saffron outfit for Nuh riots

[jaichind]

The level of communal violence in India has been going down these last two decades.  Manipur and Haryana will hurt BJP nationally because they have been claiming credit for it and these blowups hurt their narrative.  On the other hand in Haryana itself, this should work to the benefit of the BJP and comes just in time for the 2024 Haryana assembly elections which until now the BJP looks likely to lose.

Is the BJP's Haryana ally JJP realistic in hoping for Muslim support? Their deputy CM Dushyant Chautala blamed the VHP for provoking the clashes.

'Dushyant Chautala has gone blind for Muslim vote bank': VHP slams Haryana DyCM for blaming saffron outfit for Nuh riots

I think this is mostly about the Jat vote.  The BJP strategy in Haryana since 2014 has been to consolidate the non-Jat Hindu vote.  That actually hurt them in the 2019 Haryana assembly elections where BJP underperformed when the Jat vote shifted to INLD splinter JJP in mostly an anti-BJP vote.  The post election BJP-JJP government in many ways went against the JJP mandate.  The main risk for JJP in the 2024 Haryana assembly election is that the Jat vote might shift from JJP to INLD or even INC.  There is a need for JJP to distance themselves from BJP ahead of the 2024 assembly elections so this move is in ling with that JJP strategy.  This is risky as the Jat-Muslim relationship in Haryana is not great so JJP risks losing some of the Jat vote by doing this.  But I guess JJP figured it was worth the risk.

[eos]

'Keep Quiet Or ED May Arrive At Your Home': Meenakshi Lekhi Warns Oppn During Debate Over Delhi Ordinance Bill

BJP minister Meenakshi Lekhi threatening the opposition with corruption investigations during a debate on the Delhi ordinance bill. It's an open secret that government agencies are used as such by the ruling party to fight "corruption", but it's completely different thing to be using that to silence debate in parliament. The government is getting testy.

[eos]

The level of communal violence in India has been going down these last two decades.  Manipur and Haryana will hurt BJP nationally because they have been claiming credit for it and these blowups hurt their narrative.  On the other hand in Haryana itself, this should work to the benefit of the BJP and comes just in time for the 2024 Haryana assembly elections which until now the BJP looks likely to lose.

Is the BJP's Haryana ally JJP realistic in hoping for Muslim support? Their deputy CM Dushyant Chautala blamed the VHP for provoking the clashes.

'Dushyant Chautala has gone blind for Muslim vote bank': VHP slams Haryana DyCM for blaming saffron outfit for Nuh riots

I think this is mostly about the Jat vote.  The BJP strategy in Haryana since 2014 has been to consolidate the non-Jat Hindu vote.  That actually hurt them in the 2019 Haryana assembly elections where BJP underperformed when the Jat vote shifted to INLD splinter JJP in mostly an anti-BJP vote.  The post election BJP-JJP government in many ways went against the JJP mandate.  The main risk for JJP in the 2024 Haryana assembly election is that the Jat vote might shift from JJP to INLD or even INC.  There is a need for JJP to distance themselves from BJP ahead of the 2024 assembly elections so this move is in ling with that JJP strategy.  This is risky as the Jat-Muslim relationship in Haryana is not great so JJP risks losing some of the Jat vote by doing this.  But I guess JJP figured it was worth the risk.

Makes sense, here is Dushyant Chautala terming the clashes as a failure of the state administration.

Haryana violence: Why BJP, ally JJP are not on same page

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/supreme-court-stays-rahul-gandhis-conviction-in-defamation-case-532059

"Supreme Court stays Rahul Gandhi's conviction in defamation case"

This means Rahul Gandhi now gets his MP status back, for now.

[CumbrianLefty]

This was always a load of nonsense anyway, so hopefully sanity has prevailed.

[jaichind]

Some signs of License Raj making a comeback

https://qz.com/india-laptop-import-restrictions-license-raj-1850707086

"India’s laptop import restrictions are a nasty throwback to the License Raj"

It seems in order to boost local laptop manufacturing the Indian government decided to add a bureaucratic barrier of making the importer get a license.  The execution seems to be poor and had to be delayed by 3 months the day after the rules rolled out.

In reality, almost all Indian laptop manufacturing gets most of its components from the PRC so one way or another most laptops sold in India will have 100% or 99% PRC content.  

A good example is the new Reliance JioBook laptop which got rolled out with much fanfare is really manufactured on PRC.

 
Still I agree India's economic development has to include manufacturing and you have to start somewhere even if its low value assembly.

[Logical]

64 GB of storage??? Lmao. It would be hardly adequate for modern office programs. My smartphone has four times as much storage.

[eos]

India Today infographic on NDA and I.N.D.I.A. as presently constituted, with the presumption that SS and NCP votes are equally divided between their factions.

[eos]

The election commission has finalised a draft for the delimitation of Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies in Assam to be in effect by the 2024 LS and 2026 assembly elections. No changes in the total number of seats, but the INC is alleging that the BJP is gerrymandering. BJP claims that the move will help protect the indigenous population.  NDTV Outlook India Hindustan Times Pratidin Time  East Mojo




 
Notably, some Lok Sabha seats have been renamed, seemingly to justify the shifting of assembly constituencies within their boundaries. The Kaliabor LS seat, a long time stronghold of the INC and Gogoi family, has been now renamed Kaziranga LS after the famous wildlife sanctuary. The rationale for this is that it will promote tourism, but political motives are obvious. The Kaliabor LS seat had a large number of Muslim voters. In 2014, Gaurav Gogoi won with 38% of the vote, while BJP finished second with 29.3% and AIUDF was third with 19.1%. In 2019, AIUDF did not run a candidate, allowing Gogoi to beat back the BJP candidate 55.4% to 40.44%. He would have possibly lost if AIUDF had run a strong Muslim candidate. The EC is now shifting out/redrawing 4 assembly seats with heavy Muslim populations, namely, Dhing, Batodraba, Rupohihat, and Samaguri. They are being replaced by Hindu majority seats from other LS constituencies.

They are changing which LS seats are reserved for SC. Karimganj, which is reserved for SC, will become unreserved and Silchar will become a SC reserved seat instead. Silchar has a Bengali Hindu majority, and is a historical stronghold of INC and the Dev family. Sushmita Dev won in 2014 despite the BJP wave and did not perform too badly in 2019, losing by 82,000 votes. She has since joined the AITC, and become Rajya Sabha MP from West Bengal. She is not SC. What this now means is that she will have a much harder time getting back into Assam politics, and helping AITC gain a foothold with the Bengali Hindu population of the Barak Valley.

This pattern of redrawing seats with Muslim population is also widespread in assembly constituencies. Naoboicha, the only constituency in upper Assam with a Muslim majority, has been bifurcated into two, spreading out the Muslim voters. Moreover, the seat will now be reserved for SC, meaning that Muslim candidates cannot run. Likewise, the Hajo assembly seat formerly in Guwahati LS, with a substantial Muslim population, is now reserved for SC as well.

The Jalukbari assembly seat of the Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma will be bifurcated into three. He won by 100,000 votes (77%) in 2021, and BJP will probably have a very good chance of winning all three seats next time.

Having reviewed some 2019 results by the new assembly segments, the gerrymandering for Kaliabor LS is absolutely blatant. Transferring Batodraba, Rupohihat, and Samaguri to Nagaon/Nowgong wipes out an INC lead of approximately 180,000 from 2019. Dhing has completely disappeared, and singlehandedly accounts for an INC lead of 160,000, meaning a potential loss of a lead of 340,000 votes. Adding Barhampur, Lumding and Hojai from Nagaon/Nowgong adds a NDA/BJP lead of approximately 110,000 from 2019. Binnakandi is a new assembly segment, and apparently split from the Hojai assembly segment. Under the old map, Gaurav Gogoi won in 2019 by 210,000 votes, while under the new one, he would have apparently lost by 240,000 (maybe less if parts of Dhing remain in Kaziranga LS, and also depending on how exactly other segments are redistricted).

On the other hand, the BJP is washing their hands off the Nagaon LS, which they won four terms consecutively from 1999 to 2014. This reinforces my belief that getting Gaurav Gogoi out of parliament or weakening him was an absolute priority for BJP CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. Gogoi could stake a claim to Nagaon because his best assembly segments have been relocated there, but the sitting INC MP, Pradyut Bordoloi, is a significant figure in his own right, and can't easily be forced out in 2024. Additionally, relocating to Nagaon could allow BJP to spin a narrative of Gogoi's electoral fortunes depending on Muslim votes and harm his standing with Hindu voters, especially his native Ahom community.

In Barpeta LS, they have eliminated/transferred out Jania, Baghbar, and Chenga assembly segments, which accounted for approximately 370,000 votes for INC and AIUDF in 2019, and only 36,000 for BJP ally AGP. They have added Nalbari (from Guwahati), where BJP had a sizeable lead, Barkhetry (Guwahati), where INC has a lead, and also Hajo (Guwahati) and Bhabanipur (Kokrajhar), where NDA/BJP and INC/AIUDF were neck to neck. Altogether, NDA gains 278,000 and INC/AIUDF gains 245,000. The origin of the other new assembly segments (Rupshi, Bajali, and Tihu) are not completely clear to me, but they seem to be a redistricting of Abhayapuri (North and South), Patacharkuchi, Sarukhetri, and Dharmapur and maybe segments from other LS seats. Bajali was temporarily the name of a district carved out of overwhelmingly Muslim Barpeta in 2020, with a 67-33 Hindu-Muslim population, only to be merged again when the BJP initiated the delimitation process. By all accounts, they have tried to siphon as many Muslim voters as possible to Dhubri LS with some ridiculous US style maps.

Overall, INC and AIUDF have lost around 125,000 votes in Barpeta, while NDA/AGP has gained around 242,000 (maybe more or less for both depending on redistricting in other segments). In 2019, INC won with 645,000 votes, combining for 894,000 with AIUDF, while NDA/AGP had approximately 505,000. Under the new segments, INC/AIUDF in 2019 would have been around 769,000 and NDA/AGP near 750,000. Assuming the same INC-AIUDF split, we have INC at 554,000, and AIUDF at 215,000, giving NDA/AGP a landslide victory by nearly 200,000 votes. INC has a fighting chance in 2024, but only if AIUDF doesn't run a candidate and split votes. It's almost certain that the newly created assembly segments advantage the NDA, so Barpeta is now a slight lean NDA seat in a straight NDA-INC fight. This is astonishing considering that Barpeta was, along with Dhubri, the most hostile seat for NDA in Assam.

I haven't taken into account the 2021 elections, where both NDA and INC gained and lost ground in various segments. However, preliminary analysis suggests NDA/BJP has written off Dhubri and Nagaon as opposition seats to better their chances of winning the remaining 12. Writing off the prestigious and central Nagaon LS seat is surprising, but explicable if one understands how much HBS hates Gaurav Gogoi. There are also rumours that HBS has significant business interests near the Kaziranga wildlife sanctuary, and hopes to become a national figure one day running from Kaziranga LS. A final revenge by taking the Gogoi family's bastion for himself. The final results of delimitation will be out soon.

[eos]

Apparently the following seats are new names of these redistricted former assembly segments, but we can't be sure until the delimitation results are out.

Binnakandi - Jamunamukh (in Hojai district, but Nagaon LS)
Rupshi - Sarukhetri (already in Barpeta)
Bajali - Patacharkuchi  (already in Barpeta)
Tihu - Dharmapur  (already in Barpeta)

If Binnakandi is Jamunamukh , then the change in Kaliabor and Nagaon is not as radical as I thought. Jannamukh is in Nagaon LS, and gave INC a lead of approximately 116,000 in 2019. INC still at a 125,000 disadvantage in the new Kaziranga LS, but their gains in Nagaon are a little offset by the loss of Jamunamukh (gain 340,000, lose 116,000 in leads). Makes sense, as NDA can make Kaliabor more competitive this way without totally giving away Nagaon in the event that AIUDF also runs a strong candidate against INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/2552391-misogynistic-man-smriti-irani-over-rahul-gandhis-flying-kiss-to-parliament

""Misogynistic man": Smriti Irani over Rahul Gandhi's 'flying kiss' to Parliament "

Women BJP MPs complain that Rahul Gandhi's flying kiss toward the treasury benches during the VONC debate is sexual harassment

https://twitter.com/NewsArenaIndia/status/1689211845389832192

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/131-in-favour-102-against-rajya-sabha-clears-delhi-services-bill-with-help-from-bjd-ysrcp/articleshow/102516076.cms

"131 in favour, 102 against: Rajya Sabha clears Delhi Services Bill with help from BJD, YSRCP"

YSRCP TDP and BJD votes with NDA allowing the NDA to win RS vote on Delhi Services Bill.

[jaichind]

The Delhi Services Bill on the surface seems fairly something stupid for the BJP to do.  It pretty much says out loud that BJP does not think there is much of a chance of it beating AAP in the 2025 Delhi assembly elections. 

I suspect this is a 3-D chess move by the BJP.  The 2022 Punjab and Gujarat assembly elections show the growth potential of the AAP.  Yes, so far AAP growth seems to have hurt INC more but could hurt BJP in the future.  By pushing Delhi Services Bill the BJP is pretty much pushing AAP into an alliance with the INC.  This actually helps the BJP in the long run since it sort of boxes AAP in as a pro-INC anti-BJP party and would restrict AAP growth with marginal BJP voters.  The AAP playbook for the 2015 and 2020 Delhi assembly elections has been to project itself as a non-controversial version of the BJP as an efficient deliverer of welfare schemes and while attacking the local BJP tended to be respectful of Modi as not to drive away pro-Modi AAP-BJP marginal voters.  By pushing AAP into an alliance with INC in 2024 LS the BJP is hoping to force AAP into openly attacking Modi and of course restrict the AAP future growth potential with marginal BJP voters.

[eos]

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/2552391-misogynistic-man-smriti-irani-over-rahul-gandhis-flying-kiss-to-parliament

""Misogynistic man": Smriti Irani over Rahul Gandhi's 'flying kiss' to Parliament "

Women BJP MPs complain that Rahul Gandhi's flying kiss toward the treasury benches during the VONC debate is sexual harassment

https://twitter.com/NewsArenaIndia/status/1689211845389832192

Here is another angle showing that it was directed at the speaker.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKBNuJNvuCI

[jaichind]

Here is another angle showing that it was directed at the speaker.

I think some BJP MPs were taunting Rahul Gandhi during his speech and he blew a flying kiss in response at the end of his speech. In theory in the British style of parliament rules, one is only supposed to speak to the Speaker and not anyone else even though it is clear a lot of speeches are directed at another MP.  So one can argue that Rahul Gandhi is merely following rules in directing the flying kiss at the Speaker when it is meant for the BJP MPs taunting him.  One way or another one can claim this is immature but it is a stretch to claim that this is "sexual harassment" or "misogynistic."

[eos]

Here is another angle showing that it was directed at the speaker.

I think some BJP MPs were taunting Rahul Gandhi during his speech and he blew a flying kiss in response at the end of his speech. In theory in the British style of parliament rules, one is only supposed to speak to the Speaker and not anyone else even though it is clear a lot of speeches are directed at another MP.  So one can argue that Rahul Gandhi is merely following rules in directing the flying kiss at the Speaker when it is meant for the BJP MPs taunting him.  One way or another one can claim this is immature but it is a stretch to claim that this is "sexual harassment" or "misogynistic."

Do you think Rahul Gandhi will contest against Smriti Irani in Amethi? She has been taking every opportunity to comment on Gandhi lately. I don't think he will leave Wayanad after being reinstated after the Modi surname controversy, but he could contest two seats like in 2019. Or maybe Sonia Gandhi could contest in Amethi if she leaves Rae Bareli for Priyanka Gandhi? However, Sonia Gandhi's health has been declining.

[eos]

INC in Rajasthan gearing up for the assembly elections.

Rajasthan will hike OBC quota from 21% to 27%: CM Ashok Gehlot

Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot announced on Wednesday that the state would raise OBC reservation from 21% to 27%, with the additional 6% being for the benefit of the most backward sections within the category. The change, if and when it takes effect, will raise overall reservation in Rajasthan from 64% to 70%.

Gehlot made the announcement while addressing the gathering at Rahul Gandhi’s rally in Mangarh Dham near Banswara. He later tweeted about the proposal in detail. Taking the cue from Rahul, the CM said, “You (Rahul) said just now that there should be a caste-based census in the country. It is a message to the nation. We would want such a census to be done in Rajasthan as well. People will get their rights based on caste (population)”.

[jaichind]

Do you think Rahul Gandhi will contest against Smriti Irani in Amethi? She has been taking every opportunity to comment on Gandhi lately. I don't think he will leave Wayanad after being reinstated after the Modi surname controversy, but he could contest two seats like in 2019. Or maybe Sonia Gandhi could contest in Amethi if she leaves Rae Bareli for Priyanka Gandhi? However, Sonia Gandhi's health has been declining.

I think Sonia Gandhi will go to RS with Priyanka Gandhi contesting Rae Bareli.  I think it is a good idea for Rahul Gandhi to contest Amethi.  I am not sure he would.  If he does not it would be a bad idea because it would be read as INC giving up on the Hindi heartland in the long run.   Another idea is for Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka Gandhi to contest in Varanasi against Modi.  I doubt INC would be this brave.  I also read that Nitish Kumar might contest in one of the Kurmi-heavy seats in Eastern UP.