India 2023 assembly elections

[eos]

Do you think Rahul Gandhi will contest against Smriti Irani in Amethi? She has been taking every opportunity to comment on Gandhi lately. I don't think he will leave Wayanad after being reinstated after the Modi surname controversy, but he could contest two seats like in 2019. Or maybe Sonia Gandhi could contest in Amethi if she leaves Rae Bareli for Priyanka Gandhi? However, Sonia Gandhi's health has been declining.

I think Sonia Gandhi will go to RS with Priyanka Gandhi contesting Rae Bareli.  I think it is a good idea for Rahul Gandhi to contest Amethi.  I am not sure he would.  If he does not it would be a bad idea because it would be read as INC giving up on the Hindi heartland in the long run.   Another idea is for Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka Gandhi to contest in Varanasi against Modi.  I doubt INC would be this brave.  I also read that Nitish Kumar might contest in one of the Kurmi-heavy seats in Eastern UP.

After Rahul's return to Lok Sabha, UP Congress now wants him to fight from Amethi in 2024

I agree it will be good for the INC's morale in the North, especially UP. Irani is not a formidable opponent, but the problem is that LS elections are being decided in Modi's name in the North. Rahul Gandhi could circumvent this problem by running two seats like in 2019, but that would give BJP political ammunition.

[eos]

Assam delimitation final draft has come out

Delimitation of Constituencies in State of Assam – Final Notification – regarding

New LS constituencies and their assembly segments

[eos]

Assam delimitation changes.

1. Mangaldoi is now Darrang-Udalguri
2. Autonomous District is now Diphu
3. Kaliabor is now Kaziranga
4. Tezpur is now Sonitpur
5. Silchar is now reserved for SC instead of Karimganj
6. Decisively Muslim electorates in the assembly reduced from 40s to approximately 24, most of them in Lower Assam division. Bengali Hindu's will be a decisive force in another 10-12 segments in Barak Valley. The rest is dominated by Assamese Hindu and Tribals.
7. Muslim electors of Barpeta and Kaliabor LS more or less transferred to Dhubri and Nagaon LS.

[eos]

I should add that Karimganj becoming unreserved allows Muslim candidates, increasingly the likelihood of BJP successfully polarising the electorate on religious lines. Previously, even the AIUDF nominated Hindu Bengali candidates in this completely Bengali dominated constituency (with a slight Bengali Muslim majority). AIUDF has overtaken INC here since 2014, consolidating Muslim voters but also doing well enough through Hindu Bengali candidates to win in 2014 and narrowly losing to BJP in 2019.

Silchar becoming SC reserved knocks out Sushmita Dev from contesting. Her family has been a leading force with the INC since the 1970s in this Hindu Bengali majority district, and she is now with the TMC as a RS MP from West Bengal. The TMC had plans to expand into Assam through the Bengali majority of the Barak Valley, recruiting her as their main leader in Assam. How the Bengali Muslims vote in Silchar now remain to be seen. Previously Muslim candidates could contest and the division of Hindu Bengali votes between INC and BJP almost allowed Muslim candidates under CPI and AIUDF banner to win in 1991 and 2009, the latter being AIUDF head Badruddin Ajmal himself. On the other hand, third-party Bengali Muslim candidates kept BJP competitive against INC in the 90s.

Neither in Karimganj and Silchar have the LS boundaries been really modified, the focus being on internal assembly segments. I will have to double check the assembly segments, but I have a suspicion there could have been an effort to even out the distribution of Muslims across Karimganj and Silchar. TMC could ask to run candidates here as part of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance in 2024.

[jaichind]

The number of Muslim seats in the Assam assembly goes from 45 to 25.  In the short run that clearly helps BJP but in the long run that could help INC.  It seems INC and AIUDF are unlikely to have an alliance in the future which may allow INC to try to win back some of its old Hindu votes.  The increase in the number of seats where Muslims are in the minority means that INC could, in the long run, have more seats where tactical voting by Muslims might push them ahead of the BJP.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/sharad-pawar-ajit-pawar-secret-meet-india-bloc-8889855/lite/#cobssid=s

"Sharad Pawar-Ajit Pawar ‘secret’ meet: Maha Cong chief Nana Patole says confident of Sr Pawar staying with INDIA bloc"

It is not clear what Sharad Pawar is up to now but overall it is pretty clear he will stay with INDIA alliance until at least the 2024 LS  and assembly elections. After that who knows.

[eos]

Rough map of the new Nagoan (formerly no. 10, orange) and Kazirangra (formerly Kaliabor no. 11, blue) LS seats.

[jaichind]

http://Telanganaintentions.com Weekly tracker for Telangana has it at

BRS         40.0
INC          27.6
BJP          14.8
Anti-KCR    5.1

One can expect the anti-KCR vote to go to INC or BJP depending on which one is the stronger challenger to BRS.

[jaichind]

Times Now ETG LS poll

NDA     296-326
INDIA   160-190
YSRC      24-25
BJD        12-14
BRS         9-11
OTH       11-14

UP                  NDA 69-73, INDIA   5-9  (not sure if there is SP-INC-RLD alliance)
Maharashtra    NDA 28-32  INDIA 15-19
Karnataka       NDA 16-18  INDIA   8-10
TN                  NDA   4-8   INDIA  30-34
AP                                                           YSRCP 24-25  TDP  0-1
Telangana       NDA   2-3   INDIA    3-4         BRS   9-11
Kerala            NDA   0-1   INDIA  18-20 (UDF and LDF most likely still run separately)
Delhi              NDA   5-6   INDIA    1-2 (they must assume AAP-INC alliance)
Punjab            NDA   2-3   INDIA    8-12       SAD   1-2 (INC and AAP run separately)
Haryana          NDA   6-8   INDIA    2-4
Uttarakhand    NDA   4-5   INDIA    0-1
HP                  NDA   3-4   INDIA    0-1
J&K & Ladakh  NDA   1-3   INDIA    3-4
Gujarat           NDA   26    INDIA       0
Rajasthan       NDA 20-22  INDIA    2-3
MP                 NDA 24-26  INDIA    3-5
Chhattisgarh   NDA   6-8   INDIA     3-5
Goa               NDA    1-2   INDIA     0-1
WB                NDA 16-18  INDIA   23-27  (I assume Left Front-INC runs separately from AITC)
Bihar             NDA  22-24 INDIA   16-18
Jharkhand      NDA 10-12  INDIA     2-4
Assam           NDA  9-11   INDIA     3-4
North East     NDA   4-6    INDIA     3-5
Odisha          NDA   6-8     INDIA     0-1      BJD    12-14

Mostly status quo election.  Tiny revival of INC in the Hindi belt but BJP swamps opposition in UP to make up for it.  New opposition alliance configurations in Maharashtra and Bihar make an impact but not enough.  BJP holds on to surprise overperformance in WB from 2019 and loses less than expected in Karnataka.

[jaichind]

Times Now ETG LS poll with some vote share for states

Overall             Seats     Vote share
NDA                296-326      42.6%
INDIA              160-190      40.2% (in some states like WB, Punjab, and Kerala INDIA will run separately which pushes up their vote share)
                       
Maharashtra     Seats     Vote share
NDA                28-32         46.3%
INDIA              15-19         41.2%

Gujarat            Seats     Vote share
NDA                  26            58.6%
INDIA                 0             38.6%

WB                  Seats     Vote share
NDA               16-28         42.9%
AITC               23-27         45.2%
Left Front         0-1             5.2%
INC                  1-2             4.5%

Assam             Seats     Vote share
NDA                  9-11        48.9%
INDIA                3-4          44.0%
Others               0-1            7.0%  (I assume this is mostly AIUDF)

UP                  Seats      Vote share
NDA                69-73        51.2%
INDIA              5-9           38.2%
BSP                 0-1             6.4%

Chhattisgarh    Seats      Vote share
NDA                6-8           49.7%
INDIA              3-5           45.9%

MP                 Seats       Vote share
NDA               24-26         52.9%
INDIA              3-5           39.9%

Delhi               Seats      Vote share   
NDA                 5-6           52.3%
INDIA               1-2           44.9%
 
Rajasthan       Seats        Vote share
NDA                20-22         55.2%
INDIA               2-3            35.9%
 
Bihar              Seats        Vote share  (NDA wins more seats with less vote share?)
NDA                 22-24          44.2%
INDIA               16-18          46.1%

Telangana        Seats           Vote share
NDA                  2-3              24.3%
INDIA               3-4               29.9%
BRS                 9-11              38.4%

TN                  Seats            Vote share (with this vote share it should be 39-0)
NDA                 4-8               27.8%
INDIA             30-34             57.2%

Karnataka        Seats           Vote share
NDA                18-20            44.6%
INDIA               8-10             43.3%

In terms of seats by party
BJP        288-314
INC         62-80
YSRCP     24-25
DMK        20-24
AITC        22-24
BJD         12-14
BRS          9-11
AAP          5-7

[eos]

TN                  Seats            Vote share (with this vote share it should be 39-0)
NDA                 4-8               27.8%
INDIA             30-34             57.2%

I agree, I would be more bullish on DMK/INC sweeping TN in light of AIADMK's internal splits and supposed vote share difference.

Assam             Seats     Vote share
NDA                  9-11        48.9%
INDIA                3-4          44.0%
Others               0-1            7.0%  (I assume this is mostly AIUDF)

In 2019, INC and AIUDF had a tactical alliance in a few seats.

NDA - 47.2% (BJP/AGP/BPF)
BJP - 36.4%
AGP - 8.3%
BPF - 2.5%
_________
INC - 35.8%
AIUDF - 7.9%
IND - 4.3%
UPPL - 2.3%
OTH - 2.5%

Since 2021, UPPL is now in NDA and BPF will contest separately. BPF vote held up in 2021, meaning that 7% for OTH has to include sizeable shares for both AIUDF and BPF.

Approximately 1% of 2019 votes for TMC and the Left Front (CPI, CPI (M) etc) will shift from OTH to INC. This leaves OTH as 2.5 - 1.0 + BFP + AIUDF.

It seems Muslim tactical voting is helping INC crush AIUDF, who are likely running around 3-4%. With these numbers, I am skeptical that AIUDF could win even Dhubri LS. Their vote share in Dhubri in 2019 alone accounted for approximately 4% of their 7.9% in 2019.

INC has likely picked up half of AIUDF vote from 2019 and another 1% from TMC and Left Front. This still leaves another 4% swing. It seems to me the poll suggests an INC revival in Upper Assam. INC dream scenario will be Muslim tactical voting to sweep Dhubri-Barpeta-Nowgong, maybe sneak out a win in Karimganj or Silchar, and also pick up a seat or two in Upper Assam.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/madhya-pradesh/india-tv-cnx-survey-61-percent-obc-voters-to-back-bjp-in-2023-assembly-elections-29-percent-to-back-congress-mp-latest-news-2023-08-16-887084

"Madhya Pradesh Assembly Election: 61% OBC voters to back BJP, predicts India TV-CNX Survey"

India TV-CNX poll for MP that just has support by community

Some people online calculated this poll to be BJP 46 INC 41. 
https://twitter.com/addheeraj/status/1691821435944091904

At this stage of the campaign, I would say that this poll translates to neck-to-neck with a tiny BJP edge.

[jaichind]

Assam             Seats     Vote share
NDA                  9-11        48.9%
INDIA                3-4          44.0%
Others               0-1            7.0%  (I assume this is mostly AIUDF)

In 2019, INC and AIUDF had a tactical alliance in a few seats.

NDA - 47.2% (BJP/AGP/BPF)
BJP - 36.4%
AGP - 8.3%
BPF - 2.5%
_________
INC - 35.8%
AIUDF - 7.9%
IND - 4.3%
UPPL - 2.3%
OTH - 2.5%

Since 2021, UPPL is now in NDA and BPF will contest separately. BPF vote held up in 2021, meaning that 7% for OTH has to include sizeable shares for both AIUDF and BPF.

Approximately 1% of 2019 votes for TMC and the Left Front (CPI, CPI (M) etc) will shift from OTH to INC. This leaves OTH as 2.5 - 1.0 + BFP + AIUDF.

It seems Muslim tactical voting is helping INC crush AIUDF, who are likely running around 3-4%. With these numbers, I am skeptical that AIUDF could win even Dhubri LS. Their vote share in Dhubri in 2019 alone accounted for approximately 4% of their 7.9% in 2019.

INC has likely picked up half of AIUDF vote from 2019 and another 1% from TMC and Left Front. This still leaves another 4% swing. It seems to me the poll suggests an INC revival in Upper Assam. INC dream scenario will be Muslim tactical voting to sweep Dhubri-Barpeta-Nowgong, maybe sneak out a win in Karimganj or Silchar, and also pick up a seat or two in Upper Assam.

I agree with your assessment that this poll and vote share for Assam seems to indicate that INC is able to pick up Muslim support from AIUDF without any real alliance with AIUDF which allows it to try to eat into the Hindu vote.  I think I made the point before that this most recent delineation might be good for the BJP in the short run but could unlock INC from having to do deals with AIUDF which frees it to go after the BJP Hindu vote which would be a re-run of 2011.    While Himanta Biswa Sarma is leading BJP I think such INC gains might be limited but in a post Himanta Biswa Sarma the INC could become more competitive in Assam even as AIUDF is marginalized.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/aap-congress-cross-swords-over-delhi-tie-up-for-lok-sabha-polls-8895665/

"Ahead of third INDIA meeting, AAP, Cong cross swords over Delhi tie-up for LS polls"

Here we go again.  It seems AAP is willing to enter into an alliance with INC in Delhi and Punjab as long as INC also accommodates AAP in Gujarat and Haryana.  This is becoming a re-run of the 2019 INC-AAP seat talk fiasco where AAP made the same demand and INC refused.  Most likely the same thing will happen.  There is a chance of just a Delhi AAP-INC alliance but it will have to be AAP 5 INC 2 and INC most likely will not accept that.

The core issue is that usually alliances are between a national party and a (de facto) regional party.  In that case, it is easy to work out a deal where the national party gets more seats in the LS election and the regional party gets more seats for the assembly election.  INC is treating AAP as a regional party but AAP sees itself as a national party.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/pm-modi-seeks-to-free-up-12-billion-to-quell-inflation-ahead-of-elections/articleshow/102807258.cms

"PM Modi seeks to free up $12 billion to quell inflation ahead of elections"

It seems that Modi feels that rising inflation could be a risk for BJP next year so he is shifting resources to try to mitigate inflation costs for consumers.  Knowing Modi this will be targeted at the lower income levels.

[eos]

Times Now ETG LS poll with some vote share for states

Overall             Seats     Vote share
NDA                296-326      42.6%
INDIA              160-190      40.2% (in some states like WB, Punjab, and Kerala INDIA will run separately which pushes up their vote share)

I was wondering about the competitive vote share assuming that INC, Left Front, TMC and AAP running separately in some states pushes up the I.N.D.I.A. alliance artificially. I am assuming the poll has a SP+INC+RLD alliance in UP.

INC+Left Front votes in WB and Kerala 2019 LS

Bengal - 7,729,288 of 614,684,398 (1.25% nationally)
Kerala - 16,129,426 of 614,684,398 (2.62% nationally)

INC+TMC+Left Front votes in WB 2019 LS
32,486,273 of 614,684,398 (5.28% nationally)

INC+AAP votes in Punjab and Delhi 2019 LS

Punjab - 6,538, 839 of 614,684,398 (1.0% nationally)
Delhi - 3,528,587 of 614,684,398 (0.57% nationally)

That's 5.28% (WB) + 1.25% (Kerala) + 1.0% (Punjab) + 0.57% (Delhi) = 8.10%

TMC, but especially Left Front and AAP, also competed in other parts of India, and the difference in their vote share in rest of India versus WB/Kerela/Punjab/Delhi is approximately 1.3-1.4% altogether. Let's assume these rest of India votes go to I.N.D.I.A. as Left Front/TMC is not running there separately (not sure about AAP yet, but I think they will fall in line).

I am assuming a formal INC+AAP alliance in Delhi since I don't think its possible for either party to win 1-2 seats as per the poll without individually reaching 40% and more in individual seats. I can't see either reaching 40% in any seat in Delhi without an alliance. So, I will leave Delhi alone, where INC+AAP have seen a combined increase of approximately 4.1%.

I will assume INC+Left Front as a losing vote share in WB, where they have seen a combined decrease from 12% to 9.7% as per this poll. TMC has gained 2% from 2019. Altogether, I can't see more than 1% as I.N.D.I.A.'s combined losing vote share in 2024, maybe even less if there is some tactical alliances in the 21 close contest of 2019.

I will assume Left Front will be the losing vote share in Kerala, but I am not totally sure whether UDF will replicate their 2019 dominance. At most, either camp's losing vote share would be approximately 1.0% (LDF in 2019) in a UDF/LDF landslide or 1.2% if either LDF or UDF loses in a more event contest. BJP+ possibly winning a seat suggests to me a decrease in the LDF vote, enough to give UDF another landslide.

I will take INC as a losing vote share in Punjab as I see AAP winning most seats from the I.N.D.I.A. camp. INC won 8/13 in 2019 LS with 40.6% in 2019 while AAP got 7.5%. Then AAP swept the 2022 state elections with 42.3% to INC's 23.1%. I will give INC double or triple of what AAP got in national vote share from Punjab in 2019, although there is no guarantee they will even retain that much vote share in a LS election. This would give INC a losing vote share of maybe 0.3-0.5%, maybe more but possibly even less.

Altogether maybe 2.3% to 2.7% could be from I.N.D.I.A. parties running separately in some states. This would give a competitive national vote of share of:

NDA - 42.6%
I.N.D.I.A. - 37.5-37.9%

Still an improvement for I.N.D.I.A. as the alliance presently constituted has 37% vote share from 2019 (assuming SS and NCP votes are evenly split). There has been a competitive vote share increase of around 3% or more from 2019 until now. This contrasts with NDA's 42.6%, which is a decline of 0.4% from the 43% the parties presently in the alliance got in 2019.

[jaichind]

From Modi's independence day speech

We all know that our country was invaded 1000-1200 years ago. A small kingdom and its king were defeated. However, we couldn’t have known that this event would lead India into a thousand years of subjugation. We got ensnared in slavery, and whoever came, looted us, and ruled over us. What an adverse period it must have been, that thousand-year span.

We are at the milestone between 1000 years of slavery and 1000 years of grand future that is about to come.

I guess that answers my question about what the Modi/BJP vision for India is which would be  Hindu Rastra as opposed to an Indian civilizational state.  Under this vision the periods of the Delhi Sultanate and the Moghul Empire will not be viewed as part of Indian history but as one of slavery by outside powers.

While I understand this vision I am not sure it is wise.  Giving away the great accomplishments of the Delhi Sultanate and the Moghul Empire to Pakistan does not seem like a good idea.  I totally understand the counterarguments that the legacy of the Delhi Sultanate and the Moghul Empire are just not compatible with the Indo-Aryan Hindu Rastra that Modi is trying to build.

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue

[eos]

Some signs of internal troubles for NDA in Assam.

1. Amguri MLA and AGP General Secretary Prodip Hazarika resigns his posts with AGP in protest of delimitation.
2. Four-term Nowgong MP for BJP and former Union Minister, Rajen Gohain, quits his administrative post in Assam government over delimitation.
3. BJP MLA and former minister and state president, Siddhartha Bhattacharya, the uncle of Arnab Goswami, wrote to the BJP high command, complaining about the newer generation of BJP leaders who have mostly come over from INC. Bhattacharya is one of the BJP originals of Assam and has been launching invectives about the people who once stepped on portraits of Vajpayee and attacked the BJP headquarters in Guwahati having control of the party today.

[eos]

From Modi's independence day speech

We all know that our country was invaded 1000-1200 years ago. A small kingdom and its king were defeated. However, we couldn’t have known that this event would lead India into a thousand years of subjugation. We got ensnared in slavery, and whoever came, looted us, and ruled over us. What an adverse period it must have been, that thousand-year span.

We are at the milestone between 1000 years of slavery and 1000 years of grand future that is about to come.

I guess that answers my question about what the Modi/BJP vision for India is which would be  Hindu Rastra as opposed to an Indian civilizational state.  Under this vision the periods of the Delhi Sultanate and the Moghul Empire will not be viewed as part of Indian history but as one of slavery by outside powers.

While I understand this vision I am not sure it is wise.  Giving away the great accomplishments of the Delhi Sultanate and the Moghul Empire to Pakistan does not seem like a good idea.  I totally understand the counterarguments that the legacy of the Delhi Sultanate and the Moghul Empire are just not compatible with the Indo-Aryan Hindu Rastra that Modi is trying to build.

I do think BJP does need to think through its views on the identity of India.  They are clearly trying to create an Indo-Aryan Hindu identity as the Indian identity.  What is not clear is do they see this Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state or do they see it as a Hindu Rastra.  There are several stands within the BJP that seems to advocate for one or another.  One way to tell is to ask the question "Do you consider the Moghul empire as a part of Indian history"  Those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a civilizational state would say "Yes" and those for Indo-Aryan Hindu Indian state as a Hindu Rastra would say "No".  On my few trips to India, I would ask people, especially those that I can tell are pro-BJP this question.   Some of the younger people I asked would get confused about what I would ask this question but some of the older people I asked that have thought about this issue

BJP wants to unify Hindu's politically. The problem is that there are big intra-regional cultural and political schisms in India. Dravidian South vs Indo-Aryan North, Bengali vs Assamese in the East, and Marathi vs non-Marathi, etc. This is not to mention the problem of caste.

Language as a tool of unification is very difficult. Hindi will never be accepted by the South.
TN CM Stalin denounces Amit Shah push for Hindi, cautious against igniting ’embers’ of 1965 agitations

Bollywood's Hindi film industry once spread across non-Hindi regions in the East, but they have always been rejected in the South, with its own booming film industries. Now these Southern films are spreading across India, even outperforming Hindi films and ensuring Hindi popular culture does not become monodominant in India.

Religion seems to be the most convenient tool. In the BJP's view, the electoral success of Hindu nationalism drew parties like the Marathi Shiv Sena and the Assamese AGP into their fold, more or less forcing these parties to adopt Hinduvta in some form. The AGP used to launch invectives against Bengali's in general, but have moderated it into Bengali Hindu are refugees and Bengali Muslim are "illegal economic migrants" and "cultural aliens".

I think that's why they prefer the Hindu Rashtra as opposed to a civilisation state with a dominant culture and language like China.

[eos]

BJP Names Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh Candidates, A First Before Poll Dates

BJP has announced the first list of candidates for Chhattisgarh and MP.

They have nominated BJP MP Vijay Baghel to stand in Patan in Chhattisgarh against his uncle INC CM Bhupesh Baghel. They have faced off against each other in 2003, 2008, and 2013 for Patan. Vijay Baghel won in 2008, while Bhupesh Baghel won on all the other occasions.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/india-considers-wheat-imports-russia-discount-calm-prices-sources-2023-08-17/

"India considers wheat imports from Russia at discount to calm prices - sources"

Speaking of grain it seems India will make the move to buy significant amount of Russia wheat to calm surging food inflation ahead of critical assembly elections in the Hindi heartland later this year.  India rarely imports wheat due to the issue of self-sufficiency and the power of the farm lobby.  But this time around food inflation is turning into a political problem for Modi.  Russia is offering a discount to make sure it gets the deal and lock out Ukraine from being the "solution" to Modi's political problem.

[jaichind]

BJP Names Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh Candidates, A First Before Poll Dates

BJP has announced the first list of candidates for Chhattisgarh and MP.

They have nominated BJP MP Vijay Baghel to stand in Patan in Chhattisgarh against his uncle INC CM Bhupesh Baghel. They have faced off against each other in 2003, 2008, and 2013 for Patan. Vijay Baghel won in 2008, while Bhupesh Baghel won on all the other occasions.   

This is a very unusual move to release candidate names so early in the process. It seems the BJP, especially in MP, is trying to head off a possible rebellion by locking down the candidate and staring down possible rebels.  Most of these seats are those that the BJP lost in 2018 so the BJP thinks they need the candidate to get more time to campaign even with the risk of possible BJP rebels getting more time to campaign.

[jaichind]

https://www.freepressjournal.in/india/nitish-kumar-has-sunk-his-own-party-wont-get-even-5-seats-prashant-kishor-lashes-out-at-bihar-cm

"'Nitish Kumar Has Sunk His Own Party, Won't Get Even 5 Seats': Prashant Kishor Lashes Out At Bihar CM"

Prashant Kishor may very well be right but this read mostly like sour grapes given the blowups he had to Nitish Kumar when he left JD(U).   I think his narrative is "no non-BJP party can do well without hiring me to manage their campaign"

[eos]

Assam             Seats     Vote share
NDA                  9-11        48.9%
INDIA                3-4          44.0%
Others               0-1            7.0%  (I assume this is mostly AIUDF)

In 2019, INC and AIUDF had a tactical alliance in a few seats.

NDA - 47.2% (BJP/AGP/BPF)
BJP - 36.4%
AGP - 8.3%
BPF - 2.5%
_________
INC - 35.8%
AIUDF - 7.9%
IND - 4.3%
UPPL - 2.3%
OTH - 2.5%

Since 2021, UPPL is now in NDA and BPF will contest separately. BPF vote held up in 2021, meaning that 7% for OTH has to include sizeable shares for both AIUDF and BPF.

Approximately 1% of 2019 votes for TMC and the Left Front (CPI, CPI (M) etc) will shift from OTH to INC. This leaves OTH as 2.5 - 1.0 + BFP + AIUDF.

It seems Muslim tactical voting is helping INC crush AIUDF, who are likely running around 3-4%. With these numbers, I am skeptical that AIUDF could win even Dhubri LS. Their vote share in Dhubri in 2019 alone accounted for approximately 4% of their 7.9% in 2019.

INC has likely picked up half of AIUDF vote from 2019 and another 1% from TMC and Left Front. This still leaves another 4% swing. It seems to me the poll suggests an INC revival in Upper Assam. INC dream scenario will be Muslim tactical voting to sweep Dhubri-Barpeta-Nowgong, maybe sneak out a win in Karimganj or Silchar, and also pick up a seat or two in Upper Assam.

I agree with your assessment that this poll and vote share for Assam seems to indicate that INC is able to pick up Muslim support from AIUDF without any real alliance with AIUDF which allows it to try to eat into the Hindu vote.  I think I made the point before that this most recent delineation might be good for the BJP in the short run but could unlock INC from having to do deals with AIUDF which frees it to go after the BJP Hindu vote which would be a re-run of 2011.    While Himanta Biswa Sarma is leading BJP I think such INC gains might be limited but in a post Himanta Biswa Sarma the INC could become more competitive in Assam even as AIUDF is marginalized.

My reading of the situation is that knives will be out for HBS at the first signs of trouble. He is still Satan incarnate for many BJP and AGP cadres who prefer Sarbananda Sonowal. HBS' newfound Hinduvta has made him a well-known figure in North India, but it is not convincing to anyone who has been working for BJP and AGP in Assam for the last 20 years. Modi himself keeps his distance from HBS since he used to denounce Modi in harshest terms, saying things like "Gurarat's pipe infrastructure might be wide and modern, but they are flowing with blood of Muslims". HBS, however, has the backing of Amit Shah and many former INC leaders who now dominate Assam BJP. They stick together.

[jaichind]

BJP wants to unify Hindu's politically. The problem is that there are big intra-regional cultural and political schisms in India. Dravidian South vs Indo-Aryan North, Bengali vs Assamese in the East, and Marathi vs non-Marathi, etc. This is not to mention the problem of caste.

Language as a tool of unification is very difficult. Hindi will never be accepted by the South.
TN CM Stalin denounces Amit Shah push for Hindi, cautious against igniting ’embers’ of 1965 agitations

Bollywood's Hindi film industry once spread across non-Hindi regions in the East, but they have always been rejected in the South, with its own booming film industries. Now these Southern films are spreading across India, even outperforming Hindi films and ensuring Hindi popular culture does not become monodominant in India.

Religion seems to be the most convenient tool. In the BJP's view, the electoral success of Hindu nationalism drew parties like the Marathi Shiv Sena and the Assamese AGP into their fold, more or less forcing these parties to adopt Hinduvta in some form. The AGP used to launch invectives against Bengali's in general, but have moderated it into Bengali Hindu are refugees and Bengali Muslim are "illegal economic migrants" and "cultural aliens".

I think that's why they prefer the Hindu Rashtra as opposed to a civilisation state with a dominant culture and language like China.

All valid points.  This is why I always thought the BJP vision should be an Indian civilizational l state with a focus on Hinduism as a part of but not the entire unifying catalyst.

One other part of Modi's speech I find problematic is that it is very Indus Valley-centric.  For Modi, the conquest of the Indus Valley under the Ghurid represents the conquest of India when in reality that conquest did not affect the Deccan or the Deep South until much later.  This of course fits with my impression that the BJP's vision is a Indo-Aryan Hindu Rastra so the Dravidians are cut out of this narrative along with Muslims. 

The BJP retort would be "The Muslims will convert since they are merely descendants of Hindus that were forced to convert to Islam and the Dravidainas will be assimilated through Sanskritisation."  My main problem with that beyond the issue of Tamils being extremely proud of their Tamil language and the legacy of empires like the Cholas is that the Hindi heartland part of India is the poorest and most backward part of India.  I think this vision has some chance of success if the Hindi heartland like it was over 1000 years ago, can become the most advanced part of India.  So the BJP should really focus on that since they are now the party of the Hindi heartland under Modi anyway.