Mississippi Megathread 2023

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

As other people have said, Mississippi should think about reforming their runoff procedure because of this:

If election night would have shown 50.6% for Reeves, he would be at 49.9% right now, with all votes counted.

But the runoff procedure already kicked in much earlier than today, with absentee and early voting.

A runoff should only be scheduled after the final results have been published.

general elections should not have runs off at all

I think they should: Trump or Biden for example could be elected next year with just 40% of the vote. Which wouldn't make any sense. There should be a runoff in all general elections in early December.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting to point out that that Siena poll had Presley only up 70-16 with black voters, and losing 18-29 year olds, 47-41 against Reeves. Both of those seem to be way, way off. It doesn't seem likely that Reeves got more than 5% of the black vote.

[Rjjr77]

Interesting to point out that that Siena poll had Presley only up 70-16 with black voters, and losing 18-29 year olds, 47-41 against Reeves. Both of those seem to be way, way off. It doesn't seem likely that Reeves got more than 5% of the black vote.

There is a lot more republican black voters in Mississippi than people realize, including 4 military bases

[Arizona Iced Tea]

FINAL MARGIN

Tate Reeves wins by 3.2% or 50.9-47.7

KY Beshear+4.5
MS Reeves+3
VA House TIE
VA Senate Dem Hold
OH Issue 1 Yes+9

Looks like I nailed the governor races this year.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

Presley did insanely impressive, given that the Deep South has been trending away from Democrats post-Dobbs in every other election. Hats off for Presley, and MT Treasurer for being right while I was wrong.

Thank you — I predicted a narrow win for Pressley, so I can’t say I was on target even though I always thought the race was going to be close.

I think your and other people's point about the Deep South (minus GA) being more hostile to Democrats now than in 2015 was perfectly legitimate. JBE winning by double digits while Obama was in the teens with whites made me think Pressley could pull it off with Biden's numbers with whites in a similar range, but (a) these states are more Republican at a state level now than they were in 2015 (like in the case of Montana, the presidential topline often makes you lose sight of this), (b) Reeves was actually battle-tested and not caught asleep at the wheel like Vitter — goes to show you that these things make the difference even in supposedly safe states. And, well, he also lucked out — national Democrats complicated Hood's bid with the impeachment proceedings against Trump, and Biden's numbers being in the tank arguably tanked (sorry) Pressley.

I got KY wrong (Cameron +2) but I would have predicted a Beshear win if you had shown me the turnout numbers by county. It was a catastrophic underperformance on the part of Cameron which I really didn’t see coming. I think Cameron being this closely tied to McConnell may have had something to do with it, but it probably doesn’t explain all of it.

Looks like I nailed the governor races this year.

Well done — not easy getting off-year elections in particular right.   

[Roll Roons]

I got KY wrong (Cameron +2) but I would have predicted a Beshear win if you had shown me the turnout numbers by county. It was a catastrophic underperformance on the part of Cameron which I really didn’t see coming. I think Cameron being this closely tied to McConnell may have had something to do with it, but it probably doesn’t explain all of it.

I think it's just that Beshear is a genuinely popular incumbent, even if he is far more liberal than the median Kentucky voter, and popular incumbent governors are extremely difficult to beat even in otherwise unfavorable states. There's not much more to it than that.

[Meatball Ron]

Do we know what % of the white vote Presley got?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Do we know what % of the white vote Presley got?

Mid 20s

[QAnonKelly]

Do we know what % of the white vote Presley got?

Mid 20s

Wow, that's actually nuts.

[Matty]

Morning consult just came out with a poll showing reeves is the most unpopular governor in America

He only won because of Mississippi’s Lean

[smoltchanov]

Do we know what % of the white vote Presley got?

Mid 20s

Wow, that's actually nuts.

In fact - it's rather good percentage in present times. Many Democratic candidates in Mississippi (as well as in Louisiana and Alabama) fail to get even 15 (and sometimes - even 10) percent of white vote.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1727440745312006533?t=5kf3vEZEkWhqB00OXOoV...

[QAnonKelly]

Insane.

[Matty]

Describe a white voter from MS who voted for Biden in 2020 but reeves in 23

[One Term Floridian]

Describe a white voter from MS who voted for Biden in 2020 but reeves in 23

Someone who's finally switched over to the GOP after all these decades

[Spectator]

Describe a white voter from MS who voted for Biden in 2020 but reeves in 23

Probably a small number of people in places like Madison County and Lafayette County.

[wbrocks67]

Split Ticket estimates Presley likely won the black vote 96-2

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1729158900463845540

[Progressive Pessimist]

Split Ticket estimates Presley likely won the black vote 96-2

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1729158900463845540

But Louisiana! Rural blacks are shifting right!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Split Ticket estimates Presley likely won the black vote 96-2

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1729158900463845540

Can't remember who it was, but I vividly remember someone on here recently saying that Mississippi blacks lean more Republican than the national average. Lol

[Dan the Roman]

Split Ticket estimates Presley likely won the black vote 96-2

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1729158900463845540

Can't remember who it was, but I vividly remember someone on here recently saying that Mississippi blacks lean more Republican than the national average. Lol

No but they are probably among the most ideologically conservative(see referendum results). Most likely to split ticket(outside of suburban NE) would likely be South Carolina/Georgia/Florida. There is no reason to in MS because it is so segregated partisanship = patronage. The MS GOP neither wants nor needs them.

[Ragnaroni]

Reeves' margin is so pathetic, like yikes bro thats a real L. BOZO