Mississippi Megathread 2023
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  Mississippi Megathread 2023
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Author Topic: Mississippi Megathread 2023  (Read 20780 times)
Pollster
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« on: December 05, 2022, 09:46:12 AM »

Forgive me if this has already been started somewhere - some interesting noise being made about this race. Brandon Presley is apparently making moves to run and Reeves is said to be vulnerable in the primary.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2022, 09:47:41 AM »

If only MS could have a Beshear situation. I know it's a heavy lift but man, Reeves is just awful.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2022, 09:52:19 AM »

If only MS could have a Beshear situation. I know it's a heavy lift but man, Reeves is just awful.

It's not crazy.  They have a traditional runoff for governor now, and that seems to favor Dems in today's world.  It's in the state constitution that the winner has to have a majority, so they can't just repeal it on the fly if Warnock wins by 10 tomorrow.
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Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2022, 09:55:59 AM »

If only MS could have a Beshear situation. I know it's a heavy lift but man, Reeves is just awful.

It's not crazy.  They have a traditional runoff for governor now, and that seems to favor Dems in today's world.  It's in the state constitution that the winner has to have a majority, so they can't just repeal it on the fly if Warnock wins by 10 tomorrow.

Do they still have that strange electoral college-like system or does this replace that?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2022, 09:59:29 AM »

If only MS could have a Beshear situation. I know it's a heavy lift but man, Reeves is just awful.

It's not crazy.  They have a traditional runoff for governor now, and that seems to favor Dems in today's world.  It's in the state constitution that the winner has to have a majority, so they can't just repeal it on the fly if Warnock wins by 10 tomorrow.

Do they still have that strange electoral college-like system or does this replace that?

This replaces it.  The amendment passed in the 2020 election.
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Canis
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« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2022, 03:17:42 PM »

Pressley would be a very strong candidate, His district which hes been elected in several times now gave Trump nearly 70% of the vote. If he's the dem nominee id rate MS gov as Lean or Tilt R especially if some right-leaning independents hop in the race too.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2022, 04:27:54 PM »

The issue with Mississippi generally is that there are a lot of scandals enveloping the executive office right now,  which should make the R floor lower, but minority turnout will be a problem in a D-Pres off year, which hurts the Dems even if they improve with whites. Like a replication of November won't be good in a state like Mississippi, even though it was fine in Georgia. 
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2022, 12:07:04 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2022, 12:15:26 PM by Adam Griffin »

The issue is that Democrats need absolutely everything to go perfectly for a win in Mississippi. We've seen it twice in the past 5 years: Hood and Espy came within 5-7 points of winning, each of whom had relatively different coalition combinations bringing them there. The problem was that neither could leverage all of the high-watermarks that the other did while maintaining their own. You need flawless black turnout and support, suburban white support and rural white support simultaneously: a candidate may be able to get 2 of the 3, but hitting all 3 is nigh impossible in a state where racial polarization exists at such levels.

Generational gaps also play a role. In 2012, Obama came within 5 points of winning the under-65 vote & Biden came within 10, but both got absolutely demolished with the 65+ electorate (we're talking losses of 35-40 points). Which group is more likely to be disproportionately represented in an off-year (no matter how regular) election?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2022, 01:33:35 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2022, 06:51:28 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »



Map thru 2025

26/24Rs

S-DEL GOV KATHY JENNINGS
T-IN GOV Braun
T-LA GOV Kennedy
T-MO GOV Ashcroft
P-NC GOV STEIN
T-WVA GOV Capito
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JMT
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2023, 09:41:18 AM »

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JMT
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2023, 09:48:52 AM »

Presley is probably Democrats’ best possible candidate here, and it never hurts to have a good candidate just in case. I know Democrats have tried to get him to run statewide for awhile, so it’s good that he’s finally decided to do it.  But, I think this will be an uphill climb for Presley. If Jim Hood couldn’t win in 2019, it’s difficult to see how Presley could win.

That said, Reeves doesn’t seem very popular. It seems he’s vulnerable in a primary and possibly the general.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2023, 09:55:42 AM »

If Reeves ends up winning the primary, feels like Pressley could get close, but yeah, I feel like Hood's 2019 performance is basically the high water mark here. Would love to be wrong though!
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2023, 09:57:52 AM »

Presley's best bet was probably in 2018 against Hyde-Smith but he passed. Still, who knows. Presley has a strong coalition and Reeves does seem vulnerable... but then again, it is Mississippi.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2023, 11:12:18 AM »
« Edited: January 12, 2023, 11:19:02 AM by Del Tachi »

Welp, Democrats just sacrificed their last competent state official.  I like Presley, but he will not do as well as Hood in the general election.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2023, 12:27:01 PM »

Hmm, I should look more into this guy.
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JMT
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« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2023, 01:46:57 PM »

Welp, Democrats just sacrificed their last competent state official.  I like Presley, but he will not do as well as Hood in the general election.

I get what you mean, but if you’re Presley, this is probably your best chance to run statewide (even if it’s an uphill climb). If not now, when would he run statewide? Ticket splitting is becoming much less common, and he probably has a better chance against a relatively unpopular incumbent than he would in an open seat race.
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Spectakle
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« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2023, 01:50:38 PM »

Welp, Democrats just sacrificed their last competent state official.  I like Presley, but he will not do as well as Hood in the general election.
How about Transportation Commissioner Willie Simmons?
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« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2023, 01:57:38 PM »

"Very likely" R, bordering on Safe. I doubt he gets within 10 points, even though is he likely the Democrats' best choice.

How about Transportation Commissioner Willie Simmons?
He would do much worse, just getting the standard Democratic baseline.
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Spectakle
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« Reply #18 on: January 12, 2023, 02:11:13 PM »

Also, it's looking like Vicksburg mayor George Flaggs Jr will run as an independent. He could win some black Democrats and make Presley seem more moderate in comparison and force a runoff.
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #19 on: January 12, 2023, 02:45:36 PM »

Presley should run as an independent!
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #20 on: January 12, 2023, 03:39:15 PM »

Welp, Democrats just sacrificed their last competent state official.  I like Presley, but he will not do as well as Hood in the general election.

I get what you mean, but if you’re Presley, this is probably your best chance to run statewide (even if it’s an uphill climb). If not now, when would he run statewide? Ticket splitting is becoming much less common, and he probably has a better chance against a relatively unpopular incumbent than he would in an open seat race.

I'd rather just keep Presley on the PSC in perpetuity.  The central district of the PSC/TC is very competitive (both decided by ~1% in 2019) so having Presley keep running in/winning the northern district is the only realistic way to gaurantee Democrats will hold even an ounce of power in state politics for the foreseeable future.

Presley's problems vis-a-vis Jim Hood are that he isn't as known statewide, and he has almost zero name recognition in the Jackson suburbs or Gulf Coast.  Prelsey is also even more socially conservative than Jim Hood, meaning that the liberal activist set is really going to needle him about his abortion stance in the state's first post-Dobbs election.  He either gives up his Blue Dog base, or completely decimates turnout among liberals.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #21 on: January 12, 2023, 06:08:20 PM »

Safe R.

The Vicksburg guy takes black votes from the Democrats and Presley is going to have a hard time with the white vote than Hood did.

MS is Safe R, but it is sad.

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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #22 on: January 12, 2023, 06:16:20 PM »

Endorsed. Disagree with him on most issues but he's better than Reeves and Mississippi is a dump run by laissez-faire clowns
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #23 on: January 12, 2023, 06:50:16 PM »

This is a Safe R race, but the margin could be uncomfortably close for Reeves, and I wouldn't completely rule out Reeves losing a primary either.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: January 12, 2023, 06:59:04 PM »

He is the best (and possibly only) candidate Mississippi Democrats could put up, but it won't matter. At best he probably comes close to Jim Hood's margin.

I don't even think that Reeves' supposed unpopularity matters either.
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