Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Del Tachi]

Crazy to think what would have happened had Reeves been ~51% on election night, Presley concedes, and then certifications and late-reporting provisionals push Reeves below 50%. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Pressley kept Lafayette and Madison in his column he might’ve won

[Del Tachi]

I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

Moore-vs-Jones in Mississippi wouldn't even be competitive come election day.  D+7 or D+8 would be my guess, a seemingly impossible statewide Democrat performance to imagine in the Deep South.  Mississippi just has a lot more Democrats than Alabama.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

77 of the 82 counties in MS are now with official results.

Presley netted only 2300 additional votes in Hinds, which is likely not enough to get him to 48% (but by rounding he will).

[Del Tachi]

Presley gonna do way better than Stacey Abrams did in Georgia last year LOL

Forget #BLORGIA it's now #BLUESISSIPPI

[libertpaulian]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

[Roll Roons]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

Presley did insanely impressive, given that the Deep South has been trending away from Democrats post-Dobbs in every other election. Hats off for Presley, and MT Treasurer for being right while I was wrong.

[Birdish]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

[Del Tachi]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

[Birdish]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

I have the NYTs exit polls saying MS - 81/18, AL - 77/21 for white voters.

[Del Tachi]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

I have the NYTs exit polls saying MS - 81/18, AL - 77/21 for white voters.

Add the expected margin of error for exit polls...and they're both 80/20

I mean, maybe AL Whites really are marginally more Democrat-voting than MS Whites.  How much of a difference is that really worth?  It's not like we're comparing Mississippi to New Jersey lol

[Birdish]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

I have the NYTs exit polls saying MS - 81/18, AL - 77/21 for white voters.

Add the expected margin of error for exit polls...and they're both 80/20

Sure, just me doing some light "what-if" thinking if Mississippi whites voted slightly more democrat like the exit polls from 2020 potentially suggested.

[Birdish]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It’s just a very difficult state for Democrats to win.

Yep.

It's been stated before, but Mississippi whites are staunchly and inflexibly Republican. If Mississippi whites voted like whites in Georgia, it would be a lean D state. Heck, if they voted like Alabaman whites, Reeves might have lost.

Both Mississippi and Alabama Whites were 80-20 Trump in NYT 2020 exit polls.  The proportion of college-educated Whites between AL/MS is also very comparable (24% vs 21%)

I have the NYTs exit polls saying MS - 81/18, AL - 77/21 for white voters.

Add the expected margin of error for exit polls...and they're both 80/20

I mean, maybe AL Whites really are marginally more Democrat-voting than MS Whites.  How much of a difference is that really worth?  It's not like we're comparing Mississippi to New Jersey lol

Unrelated but interestingly enough, NJ and MS have some surprisingly similar results being polar opposites of one another. NJ voted for Biden by 16 points, MS voted for Trump by 16 points. Phil Murphy won re-election in an off year midterm by 3.2 points, Reeves won re-election in an off year midterm by 3.3 points(so far).

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

He's a Democrat running in Mississippi.

[smoltchanov]

I don't get Pressley's loss. He was quite moderate.

It's not important. What's important - he is in the same party with Biden, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries and so on. And not in the same as Trump, Reeves and their like. Right now even really conservative Democrats of the past like Eastland, Colmer, Abernethy or John Bel Williams couldn't win either, though all of them were much closer to Trump or DeSantis or .... whoever, then to Biden or Pelosi. But "being in the same party with that liberal freaks" is an unforgivable and unforgettable sin in the eyes of vast majority of white Mississipians right now. And they look on letter in parenthesis after name only, all other factors are not important to them...

P.S. Personal views of the candidate almost stopped to be important now (people like Phil Scott and Charlie Baker are rare exception), though parties became much more cohesive in this aspect too (essentially - no more conservatives in Democratic party, and no more liberals in Republican, so "big tent" is dead). What's important - letter in parenthesis:))))

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

80 of 82 Mississippi counties have final results now.

[wbrocks67]

Reeves down to +3.2%

Reeves (R) 50.9% -- 418,290
Presley (D) 47.7% -- 391,493

Reeves +26,797

[Del Tachi]

My final prediction of Reeves at 50.3% may not end up being that far off!

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Final results (all 82 counties with official results):

418.233 Reeves (Rep.)
391.614 Presley (Dem.)
  11.153 Gray (Ind.)

821.000 Total Votes

50.94% Reeves
47.70% Presley
  1.36% Gray

2 counties have submitted revised results. I used those revised numbers for my table.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Best and worst counties:

Reeves: 82.5% George, 10.9% Jefferson
Presley: 87.9% Jefferson, 15.7% George
Gray: 3.7% Wilkinson, 0.6% Noxubee

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Most votes (Top-5):

Reeves

Rankin
Harrison
DeSoto
Madison
Jackson

Presley

Hinds
Madison
Harrison
DeSoto
Rankin

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Since election night (51.6-47.0), Reeves lost 0.7% and Presley won an additional 0.7%

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

As other people have said, Mississippi should think about reforming their runoff procedure because of this:

If election night would have shown 50.6% for Reeves, he would be at 49.9% right now, with all votes counted.

But the runoff procedure already kicked in much earlier than today, with absentee and early voting.

A runoff should only be scheduled after the final results have been published.

[Flyersfan232]

As other people have said, Mississippi should think about reforming their runoff procedure because of this:

If election night would have shown 50.6% for Reeves, he would be at 49.9% right now, with all votes counted.

But the runoff procedure already kicked in much earlier than today, with absentee and early voting.

A runoff should only be scheduled after the final results have been published.

general elections should not have runs off at all