2023 elections predictions thread

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Kentucky - Beshear by a slim margin
Mississippi - Reeves by a slim margin
Pennsylvania Supreme Court - McCaffery by a large margin
Virginia House - GOP by a slim margin
Virginia Senate - GOP by a slim margin
Ohio Marijuana - Pro-Marijuana by a large margin
Ohio Abortion - Pro-Choice by a slim margin

For any possible other Western New York Voters...Poloncarz beats Casilio comfortably.

Boldest pro-GOP thing that could happen: Clean sweep in Ohio (Anti-Marijuana, Pro-Life)
Boldest pro-Democrat thing that could happen: Presley somehow upsets Reeves

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

KY-Gov Beshear +3
MS-Gov Reeves +10
PA-Crt McCaffery +7
VA State House 51-49 GOP
VA State Senate 21-19 Dem
Ohio Abortion 54-46 Yes
Ohio Weed 56-44 Yes

[Sir Mohamed]

Last minute predictions:

KY-Gov Beshear +3
MS-Gov Reeves +10
PA-Court McCaffery +6
VA State House 51-49 D
VA State Senate 21-19 D
Ohio Abortion 56-44 Yes
Ohio Weed 57-43 Yes

[2016]

Final Kentucky Governor Prediction by Election Predictions Official who picked 49 out of 50 States correctly in 2020 and all but one Senate Race in 2022

Prediction is that Beshear will win in the ballpark of 38,000 Votes.

[7,052,770]

Final Kentucky Governor Prediction by Election Predictions Official who picked 49 out of 50 States correctly in 2020 and all but one Senate Race in 2022

Prediction is that Beshear will win in the ballpark of 38,000 Votes.

That guy either chose a clickbait thumbnail or just didn't bother to pick one

[2016]

Final Kentucky Governor Prediction by Election Predictions Official who picked 49 out of 50 States correctly in 2020 and all but one Senate Race in 2022

Prediction is that Beshear will win in the ballpark of 38,000 Votes.

That guy either chose a clickbait thumbnail or just didn't bother to pick one

You need to watch the Video from beginning to the end. Beshear wins by about 3 Points in his Prediction.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Kentucky Governor: Cameron +1.5
Mississippi Governor: Reeves +9
Pennsylvania Supreme Court: McCaffrey +3
VA House: 50-50 Tie
VA Senate: 21-19 Dem
Ohio Abortion: Yes +8
Ohio Marijuana: Yes +13

[Minnesota Mike]

I will admit I have not paid as close attention to this off year election as I would an even number year and have little or no confidence in these predictions especially down ballot but what heck.

Kentucky Gov: Cameron +1
Mississippi Gov: Reeves +12
Pennsylvania SC: McCaffrey +5
Ohio #1: Yes +8
Ohio #2: Yes +15
Virginia Sen: 20-20
Virginia House: 50-50
Duluth MN Mayor: Reinert +15

[Burke Bro]

KY: Beshear +5
MS: Reeves +3
VA: Democrats narrowly win both chambers

[Dave Hedgehog]

KY: Cameron +2 (gut feeling but would like to be proven wrong)
MS: Reeves +6
Ohio abortion: Yes +12
Ohio MJ: Yes +14

Haven't looked at any of the other races in enough detail to pass an opinion

[S019]

KY: Cameron+1
MS: Reeves+5
VA: House+Senate both go D
NJ: House+Senate both go D

[OSR stands with Israel]

KY : Beshear by 2.5
MS: Reeves by 7.1
VA HOD: Tie
VA Senate : Dem Hold
OH Issue 1: Yes by 13

[Arizona Iced Tea]

KY Beshear+4.5
MS Reeves+3
VA House TIE
VA Senate Dem Hold
OH Issue 1 Yes+9

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Cameron +5
Reeves +19
Issue One: YES+4
Issue Two: YES+6
VA HOD: 51-49 GOP
VA SEN: 20-20 GOP
PA SC: GOP +1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cameron +5
Reeves +19
Issue One: YES+4
Issue Two: YES+6
VA HOD: 51-49 GOP
VA SEN: 20-20 GOP
PA SC: GOP +1

You're going to look either brilliant or very, very foolish by this time tomorrow.

[Ferguson97]

KY: Pure Toss-up, Cameron (R) by ~2
MS: Pure Toss-up, Pressley (D) by ~3

It’s official. Congratulations to Beshear and Reeves for winning re-election.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

KY Beshear+4.5
MS Reeves+3
VA House TIE
VA Senate Dem Hold
OH Issue 1 Yes+9

I think I'm doing alright so far, surprisingly.

[politicallefty]

I don't feel too bad about these predictions at all. I feel really good about my predictions on the first three races. Ballot initiatives are notoriously hard to nail on the margins though, but I wasn't too far off. Considering the polling, I thought I was a bit conservative on the marijuana initiative too. Abortion will probably end up around +13-14, and I almost did predict +14 based on the August election (but I didn't, so it is what it is). Virginia was a total guess apart from predicting Democrats would take total control of the state legislature.

I probably shouldn't put myself on the line like this (my confidence level on most of these being quite low), but so be it:

KY-Gov: Beshear (D)+4
MS-Gov: Reeves (R)+3
PA-SCt: McCaffery (D)+6
OH-Abortion: Yes+16
OH-Marijuana: Yes+20
VA-Senate: 23D-17R
VA-House: 52D-48R

[Ferguson97]

Kentucky governor: Beshear+7 (D-hold)

Mississippi governor: Reeves+9 (R-hold)

Pennsylvania supreme court: D+10 (D-hold)

Ohio abortion: Yes+10

Ohio marijuana: Yes+12

Virginia House: 53 D / 47 R (net D+5)

Virginia Senate: 23 D / 17 R (net D+1)

New Jersey Assembly: 48 D / 32 R (net D+2)

New Jersey Senate: 24 D / 16 R (net R+1)

Overestimated Beshear by 2.
Overestimated Reeves by 4.
Overestimated Demo McCaffery by 3.
Underestimated Issue 1 by 2.
Correctly predicted the margin on Issue 2!
Overestimated Dems in the VA House by 2.
Overestimated Dems in the VA Senate by 2.
Underestimated Dems in the NJ Senate by 1.
Underestimated Dems in the NJ Assembly by 3.

Not bad.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

KY: Beshear +6
MS: Presley +2
OH: abortion rights +18
OH: private marihuana +17
PA: McCafferty +11
VA: Democrats win both chambers
NJ: Democrats win both chambers
RI: D+17 in US House election

It was

Beshear+5
Reeves+4
Abortion+14
Weed+14
McCafferty+7
VA: Dems win both chambers
NJ: Dems win both chambers
RI: D+30

Aside from MS Governor, where I thought Presley had a good chance to flip the seat, I was not bad.