NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

More details on the investigation: https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1704642555722256787?s=20

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

More details on the investigation: https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1704642555722256787?s=20

Literally getting gold bars as bribes like a cartoon supervillain lmao
Did he also get massive bags of cash with dollar signs on them?

[Sir Mohamed]

More details on the investigation: https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1704642555722256787?s=20

Can someone competent please primary Menendez?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

This dude is taking literal gold bars as a bribe? Good lord, what a joke.

[Vosem]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-announces-bid-to-unseat-menendez/

Christine Serrano Glassner, mayor of Chris Christie's hometown of Mendham, is officially in. Never hurts to have a credible candidate.

Serrano-Glassner seems like potentially a very good candidate; her husband was a former Trump campaign official in 2016 and 2020, so she shouldn't struggle with national backing, and she's been elected in a very D-trending area (Mendham Township is Biden+7 in 2020, Trump+5 in 2016), although elections that local often aren't very similar to higher-office elections, which require a different skill set. Also Hispanic.

This might be the thing where I thought Nikki Snyder would be good since she also checked lots of boxes, but I think Serrano-Glassner is a perfectly reasonable choice to try to be a wave beneficiary if 2024 is a very strong Republican year. Obviously the race is hopeless if it is not (I'd honestly put it at Safe D rather than Likely), but having someone credible here would be reasonable.

[kwabbit]

Very little upside for the NJ GOP. NJ is too blue for Menendez to lose and there are no congressional seats that could be won even if he does terribly. Gottheimer, Sherill, and Kim are all pretty strong incumbents.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/serrano-glassner-announces-bid-to-unseat-menendez/

Christine Serrano Glassner, mayor of Chris Christie's hometown of Mendham, is officially in. Never hurts to have a credible candidate.

Serrano-Glassner seems like potentially a very good candidate; her husband was a former Trump campaign official in 2016 and 2020, so she shouldn't struggle with national backing, and she's been elected in a very D-trending area (Mendham Township is Biden+7 in 2020, Trump+5 in 2016), although elections that local often aren't very similar to higher-office elections, which require a different skill set. Also Hispanic.

This might be the thing where I thought Nikki Snyder would be good since she also checked lots of boxes, but I think Serrano-Glassner is a perfectly reasonable choice to try to be a wave beneficiary if 2024 is a very strong Republican year. Obviously the race is hopeless if it is not (I'd honestly put it at Safe D rather than Likely), but having someone credible here would be reasonable.

She’s aligned very closely with Trump which will not play well in the suburbs. If she’s the nominee I don’t see her doing much better than Trump himself will.

Andrew Eristoff is the much more formidable candidate, IMO.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1705212117912281124?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo...
"CNN Can now project that Senator Bob Menendez has been re-elected to a fourth term!"

[wbrocks67]

JFC can this man just step down already?!

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Lock him up!

[JMT]

Menendez should step aside. Having a competitive senate race in NJ is just unnecessary. Literally any other Democrat would make this race Safe D.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lock him up!

He should share his prison cell with Cuomo. Two crooks from each side of the Hudson.

[Devils30]

Very little upside for the NJ GOP. NJ is too blue for Menendez to lose and there are no congressional seats that could be won even if he does terribly. Gottheimer, Sherill, and Kim are all pretty strong incumbents.

Sherill or Kim should announce a primary challenge shortly. I actually think Kim would be a solid candidate for Senate and NJ-3 is now safe so Dems don't have much to worry about. Everyone needs to decide who's running for Gov in 2025 vs Senate next year. Dems could use a strong candidate who will carry the current NJ-7 in the general.

[Tekken_Guy]

Very little upside for the NJ GOP. NJ is too blue for Menendez to lose and there are no congressional seats that could be won even if he does terribly. Gottheimer, Sherill, and Kim are all pretty strong incumbents.

Sherill or Kim should announce a primary challenge shortly. I actually think Kim would be a solid candidate for Senate and NJ-3 is now safe so Dems don't have much to worry about. Everyone needs to decide who's running for Gov in 2025 vs Senate next year. Dems could use a strong candidate who will carry the current NJ-7 in the general.

Sherrill is not going to primary Menendez unless the full weight of the party apparatus is behind her, in which case he’d probably just retire. Kim on the other hand, he might actually do so, he doesn’t seem as beholden to the party machines as Sherrill or Gottheimer are, kind of like Malinowski wasn’t.

[kwabbit]

Very little upside for the NJ GOP. NJ is too blue for Menendez to lose and there are no congressional seats that could be won even if he does terribly. Gottheimer, Sherill, and Kim are all pretty strong incumbents.

Sherill or Kim should announce a primary challenge shortly. I actually think Kim would be a solid candidate for Senate and NJ-3 is now safe so Dems don't have much to worry about. Everyone needs to decide who's running for Gov in 2025 vs Senate next year. Dems could use a strong candidate who will carry the current NJ-7 in the general.

Sherrill is not going to primary Menendez unless the full weight of the party apparatus is behind her, in which case he’d probably just retire. Kim on the other hand, he might actually do so, he doesn’t seem as beholden to the party machines as Sherrill or Gottheimer are, kind of like Malinowski wasn’t.

The bosses aren't all aligned. Kim could receive support from the South Jersey and Middlesex bosses. I think support is unnecessary in any case. A rando got 38% against Menendez. A sitting Representative would probably win, but no one wants to leave a safe seat for a good chance to become senator.

[Tekken_Guy]

Very little upside for the NJ GOP. NJ is too blue for Menendez to lose and there are no congressional seats that could be won even if he does terribly. Gottheimer, Sherill, and Kim are all pretty strong incumbents.

Sherill or Kim should announce a primary challenge shortly. I actually think Kim would be a solid candidate for Senate and NJ-3 is now safe so Dems don't have much to worry about. Everyone needs to decide who's running for Gov in 2025 vs Senate next year. Dems could use a strong candidate who will carry the current NJ-7 in the general.

The bosses aren't all aligned. Kim could receive support from the South Jersey and Middlesex bosses. I think support is unnecessary in any case. A rando got 38% against Menendez. A sitting Representative would probably win, but no one wants to leave a safe seat for a good chance to become senator.
Sherrill is not going to primary Menendez unless the full weight of the party apparatus is behind her, in which case he’d probably just retire. Kim on the other hand, he might actually do so, he doesn’t seem as beholden to the party machines as Sherrill or Gottheimer are, kind of like Malinowski wasn’t.

I wonder if Tom Malinowski would be interested. Now that he’s out of congress there’s nothing for him to lose by running and it’s easy to see him rack up support from the SJ/Middlesex bosses who aren’t in Menendez’ pocket combined with support from his old constituents.

[Oryxslayer]

There has been talk of the DOJ possibility bringing a heafty corruption case against him for the past week, which is no doubt why a bunch of Republicans are "considering."

Of course thats par for the course for the NJ Dems. Given the present brand and situation of the national Dems though, they will almost certainly be immediate widespread calls and pressure to resign or retire if the charges are real and seem legitimate.  Which would be just a different bad situation for said considerers: either they face an unaccused Menendez, who will still underperform but will win a blue state, or they face a new candidate who also probably couldn't lose a blue state.

But if that happens,  at least will get a theoretically interesting Dem primary between the congressional class of 2018, Mendezes's son, a potential appointment I'd they happen to have ambition,  and whatever other machinists step forward.

This is the part of the process where we should be looking closely at when the son does. Cause once leadership let's the father know he has to retire,  the Menendez resources/allied machines will shift to him as their preferred successor.  And there will probably be hints of that occurring before an official announcement of retirement.

[NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ]

YES!

YES! YES! YES! YES! YES! YES! YES!

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!

[Zedonathin2020]

Andy Kim (who is probably salivating over the news) is the first major Democrat to call for Menendez’s resignation

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705308842542743879?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E...

[brucejoel99]

Andy Kim (who probably is salivating over the news) is the first major Democrat to call for Menendez’s resignation

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705308842542743879

in my best Patrick Warburton voice: "Oh yeah. It's all coming together."

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1705313086926704999
this comes after:

https://twitter.com/NolanDMcCaskill/status/1705256674250969236

[Tekken_Guy]

Andy Kim (who probably is salivating over the news) is the first major Democrat to call for Menendez’s resignation

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705308842542743879?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E...

If he's smart he'd jump into the race as soon as possible and potentially box out Sherrill and Gottheimer.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Andy Kim (who probably is salivating over the news) is the first major Democrat to call for Menendez’s resignation

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705308842542743879?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E...

If he's smart he'd jump into the race as soon as possible and potentially box out Sherrill and Gottheimer.

Gottheimer is not a serious or otherwise credible candidate for statewide office, even Menendez would wipe the floor with him in a primary. 

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Malinowski/status/1705317218991391116

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Andy Kim (who probably is salivating over the news) is the first major Democrat to call for Menendez’s resignation

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1705308842542743879?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E...

If he's smart he'd jump into the race as soon as possible and potentially box out Sherrill and Gottheimer.

Gottheimer is not a serious or otherwise credible candidate for statewide office, even Menendez would wipe the floor with him in a primary. 

While I don't think he'd have a chance in a Senate primary, I think Governor could be different. Those races favor bipartisan types a lot more, and he may have a winning issue for him with being the loudest voice against NY's congestion pricing plan.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/Malinowski/status/1705317218991391116

Malinowski calling on Menendez to resign. Maybe the dam really is breaking. Maybe he jumps in before Sherrill makes any moves.