NJ-SEN 2024: Draggin' The Line (3/24: Murphy OUT)

[Suburbia]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

[oldtimer]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

[Suburbia]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

[S019]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.

[Suburbia]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.

I don't forget. I remember. 2002 was the big year. 2000 Gore put Corzine on the finish line. I think Bob Franks should won that race against Jon Corzine....he fit NJ well and like Clifford Case, Franks was a moderate Republican. Corzine is lucky that Frank Lautenberg reluctantly retired at first in 2000 before being recruited for Torricelli's seat in 2002....Corzine would remained a rich nobody if Lautenberg did not retire in 2000...

A pro-choice Republican who focuses on taxes and police funding can win NJ--Menendez is so slimy.....but it looks he may win reelection until he retires or dies...

[ProgressiveModerate]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.

I don't forget. I remember. 2002 was the big year. 2000 Gore put Corzine on the finish line. I think Bob Franks should won that race against Jon Corzine....he fit NJ well and like Clifford Case, Franks was a moderate Republican. Corzine is lucky that Frank Lautenberg reluctantly retired at first in 2000 before being recruited for Torricelli's seat in 2002....Corzine would remained a rich nobody if Lautenberg did not retire in 2000...

A pro-choice Republican who focuses on taxes and police funding can win NJ--Menendez is so slimy.....but it looks he may win reelection until he retires or dies...

In a midterm with favorable turnout dynamics yes Rs could win on that message. But in a Pres year, an R would also need to make inroads into many heavily D urban minority communities.

I think people tend to stereotype NJ as a lot more homogenously suburban and whiter than it actually is. You def have quite a lot of “white flight” sort of suburbs, but people just like forget the population center of northeastern Jersey exists and the I-95 corridor as a whole is extremely diverse. You also have these pockets of smaller heavily black/Hispanic  communities mixed throughout the state, such as New Brunswick, Trenton, Asbury Park, Paterson, Rawahahaway, and Plainfield.

[Suburbia]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.

I don't forget. I remember. 2002 was the big year. 2000 Gore put Corzine on the finish line. I think Bob Franks should won that race against Jon Corzine....he fit NJ well and like Clifford Case, Franks was a moderate Republican. Corzine is lucky that Frank Lautenberg reluctantly retired at first in 2000 before being recruited for Torricelli's seat in 2002....Corzine would remained a rich nobody if Lautenberg did not retire in 2000...

A pro-choice Republican who focuses on taxes and police funding can win NJ--Menendez is so slimy.....but it looks he may win reelection until he retires or dies...

In a midterm with favorable turnout dynamics yes Rs could win on that message. But in a Pres year, an R would also need to make inroads into many heavily D urban minority communities.

I think people tend to stereotype NJ as a lot more homogenously suburban and whiter than it actually is. You def have quite a lot of “white flight” sort of suburbs, but people just like forget the population center of northeastern Jersey exists and the I-95 corridor as a whole is extremely diverse. You also have these pockets of smaller heavily black/Hispanic  communities mixed throughout the state, such as New Brunswick, Trenton, Asbury Park, Paterson, Rawahahaway, and Plainfield.

Then how did Chris Christie win in 2009 then? He won Middlesex, Burlington counties.

[ProgressiveModerate]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.

I don't forget. I remember. 2002 was the big year. 2000 Gore put Corzine on the finish line. I think Bob Franks should won that race against Jon Corzine....he fit NJ well and like Clifford Case, Franks was a moderate Republican. Corzine is lucky that Frank Lautenberg reluctantly retired at first in 2000 before being recruited for Torricelli's seat in 2002....Corzine would remained a rich nobody if Lautenberg did not retire in 2000...

A pro-choice Republican who focuses on taxes and police funding can win NJ--Menendez is so slimy.....but it looks he may win reelection until he retires or dies...

In a midterm with favorable turnout dynamics yes Rs could win on that message. But in a Pres year, an R would also need to make inroads into many heavily D urban minority communities.

I think people tend to stereotype NJ as a lot more homogenously suburban and whiter than it actually is. You def have quite a lot of “white flight” sort of suburbs, but people just like forget the population center of northeastern Jersey exists and the I-95 corridor as a whole is extremely diverse. You also have these pockets of smaller heavily black/Hispanic  communities mixed throughout the state, such as New Brunswick, Trenton, Asbury Park, Paterson, Rawahahaway, and Plainfield.

Then how did Chris Christie win in 2009 then? He won Middlesex, Burlington counties.

lol that was an off year, 2009 was a very different political era, and that was not a federal election. Also the I-95 corridor has become quite a bit more diverse since then. Today, an R path to victory in an off year would basically be what Citeralli did but doing slightly better in heavily Hispanic places like Union City and Paterson. In a Pres year though things become much more tricky.

[wbrocks67]

What Menendez needs to do is just retire at this point. He's going to put this seat at risk, even in a presidential year.

[BloJo94]

What Menendez needs to do is just retire at this point. He's going to put this seat at risk, even in a presidential year.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/menendez-builds-warchest-for-2024-re-election-campaign/

Menendez told the New Jersey Globe last September that he planned to seek re-election to a fourth full term in 2024.

“As he continues to help other Democrats in New Jersey and nationally, the senator has also begun to focus on his own re-election campaign,” said Michael Soliman, Menendez’s top political advisor.  “He has always been a strong fundraiser.”

[wbrocks67]

What Menendez needs to do is just retire at this point. He's going to put this seat at risk, even in a presidential year.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/menendez-builds-warchest-for-2024-re-election-campaign/

Menendez told the New Jersey Globe last September that he planned to seek re-election to a fourth full term in 2024.

“As he continues to help other Democrats in New Jersey and nationally, the senator has also begun to focus on his own re-election campaign,” said Michael Soliman, Menendez’s top political advisor.  “He has always been a strong fundraiser.”

Ugh. It's time for a new (non corrupt) generation of NJ Dems to take over at this point. Sherrill and Kim both have strong statewide potential.

[Atlas Force]

Inb4 Dr. Oz moves back here and runs for Senate in his actual home state.

[Suburbia]

Inb4 Dr. Oz moves back here because he’s decided to run for Senate in his actual home state.

Oz would lose to whoever the Republican is. Oz is seen as a disgrace. Losing to a stroke victim. Despite the good debate.

Jennifer Beck would be a good choice.

Beck, Jeff Chiesa would be good choices.

Kean Jr. should stay in the House. Bramnick is too boring and old.

[smoltchanov]

Clifford Case (if he would be alive and well)))

[Suburbia]

Clifford Case (if he would be alive and well)))

Yes, if he was alive. Ironically, he probably was one of the first "RINOS" to lose to a true conservative in the primary, Jeff Bell.

Bell beat Case in the primary and went on to lose to Bill Bradley, who was a former NBA star and Hall of Famer.

Case could have beaten Bradley.

NJ Dems need to primary Menendez, right away. Right now.

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - Bell's campaign was motivated by Reagan's nearly successfull challenge to Ford 2 years earlier. In addition - Case was not young and not in good health. But he, Javits, Brooke in Massachusetts and their like had one virtue - they could win even in rather "hostile" states and environment (Bell - couldn't, and Republicans never won a Senate seat in New Jersey since then, and in NY D'Amato  (who, accidentally, would be listed among most moderate Republican senators now) won general only because of split between Democratic (Holtzman) and Liberal (Javits) votes).

I always said that it's 101% axiom for me: "candidates must fit their districts and states". If, say, Louisiana is generally conservative and, especially - VERY socially conservative - run JBE (and may be - more conservative, like Blanco in the past) Democrat, not Gary Chambers!!!!! If New Jersey is moderate-to-liberal - Republicans must run if not Case, then - someone remotely similar. At least - Chris Brown's level (if nothing like Case is available now). And so on... JBE and Phil Scott prove that it's possible to win a "hostile" states with RIGHT candidate. But it's impossible to FORCE voters to vote for a candidate who, in their opinion, is "not one of them".....

[wbrocks67]

Very expected, and I wish Menendez would not run in 2024 to make room for her.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1602294951366139904

[Ferguson97]

Very expected, and I wish Menendez would not run in 2024 to make room for her.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1602294951366139904

I think it's more likely she's preparing for a 2025 run for governor

[coloradocowboi]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

Of course the so-called New Jersey expert totally ignores that NJ had actually had a competitive Senate race in 2000 and the path for a Republican victory existed in 2002. It doesn't really anymore, now I suppose if Menendez ran for re-election while being on trial or something it could move to Lean D, but that'd be it, and also good luck convincing all those Biden voters to split their tickets with things like abortion rights at stake. What Republicans actually need is for 2024 to be a red tsunami (like 2014 style), otherwise it just is not happening. Also closer to home, Democrats lost the popular vote here in Morris County by literally 40 votes. Republicans need to much better in places like here to win this state and frankly I'm not convinced they've actually done anything to indicate they want to win our votes or intend on doing so. I'm starting this at Likely D out of an abundance of caution, but actually putting together the coalition to win here is going to be very hard for Republicans.

I don't forget. I remember. 2002 was the big year. 2000 Gore put Corzine on the finish line. I think Bob Franks should won that race against Jon Corzine....he fit NJ well and like Clifford Case, Franks was a moderate Republican. Corzine is lucky that Frank Lautenberg reluctantly retired at first in 2000 before being recruited for Torricelli's seat in 2002....Corzine would remained a rich nobody if Lautenberg did not retire in 2000...

A pro-choice Republican who focuses on taxes and police funding can win NJ--Menendez is so slimy.....but it looks he may win reelection until he retires or dies...

In a midterm with favorable turnout dynamics yes Rs could win on that message. But in a Pres year, an R would also need to make inroads into many heavily D urban minority communities.

I think people tend to stereotype NJ as a lot more homogenously suburban and whiter than it actually is. You def have quite a lot of “white flight” sort of suburbs, but people just like forget the population center of northeastern Jersey exists and the I-95 corridor as a whole is extremely diverse. You also have these pockets of smaller heavily black/Hispanic  communities mixed throughout the state, such as New Brunswick, Trenton, Asbury Park, Paterson, Rawahahaway, and Plainfield.

Then how did Chris Christie win in 2009 then? He won Middlesex, Burlington counties.

IIRC, and I’m no NJ expert, he did so by making inroads in the exact kind of communities he’s talking about? But also those communities are a lot more influential than they were in 2009.

[Atlas Force]

Very expected, and I wish Menendez would not run in 2024 to make room for her.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1602294951366139904

👀

[wbrocks67]

True, I think Sherrill would be a better fit for Governor and maybe Kim for senate.

[RRusso1982]

None during a Presidential year

Not even if DeSantis holds Biden to 10 points in NJ and makes inroads in Bergen/Passaic/South Jersey?

Nope.

Don't forget in certain states voters expect their elected representatives to be crooks and are fine with it.

Torricelli was ethically smart to retire, Doug Forrester was beating him all summer 2002.....Menendez is too egotistical to step down, Torricelli had more class.

It had nothing to do with class.  Bob Torricelli was not a lawyer by trade.  He was not independently wealthy.  He would have to earn a living once he was out of office, and the Democrats had that to hold over his head.  If he played ball and withdrew, he would have friends in high places to help him there.  A nice high six figure a year job at a PR firm in NJ.  Some nice corporate boards for him to sit on.  If he stayed in and dragged the whole Democratic ticket down with him, then he was SOL.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Clifford Case (if he would be alive and well)))

Yes, if he was alive. Ironically, he probably was one of the first "RINOS" to lose to a true conservative in the primary, Jeff Bell.

Bell beat Case in the primary and went on to lose to Bill Bradley, who was a former NBA star and Hall of Famer.

Case could have beaten Bradley.

NJ Dems need to primary Menendez, right away. Right now.

They need to find a way to crack Menendez's strength in northeastern Jersey. In 2018, Lisa McCormick put up a respectable fight everywhere, but Menendez dominated in Hudson, Essex, and Bergen counties ultimately handing him a victory with 62% of the vote.

In 2018 too, the dynamics were different given Dems were really angry at Trump and you had the whole "blue no matter who" stuff. I think for this reason, a primary challenger is in better standing than anyone ever was in 2018.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1623735704009187331

If a complete nobody can win nearly 40% of the vote against Menendez in a Democratic midterm in 2018, this guy should have a very good shot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one and Kean is set to lose