Nevada Senate 2024 - Brown vs Marchant

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV isn't more winnable because Dina Titus and most of our female Fed leg had tough races in 22 and survived just like Ann Kuster did in NH

[BigZuck08]

Lean D.

[NewYorkExpress]

An announcement from former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffery Ross Gunter is considered imminent.

Former Ambassador Jeffrey Ross Gunter, a Republican, intends to announce a run for Senate in Nevada in early August, a source familiar with his plans tells NBC News.

Gunter, a dermatologist and GOP donor, will square off in the Republican primary with Sam Brown, a retired Army captain, and Jim Marchant, the GOP’s 2022 candidate for secretary of state who propagated election conspiracy theories. The candidates are vying for the seat held by Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, who is running for a second term.

[NewYorkExpress]

Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffery Ross Gunter is in.

Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist who was ambassador to Iceland during Donald Trump’s administration, announced Monday he’s running for U.S. Senate in Nevada, joining an increasingly crowded field of Republicans looking to unseat first-term Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen.

In a three-minute introductory video, Gunter presented himself as a loyal Trump supporter committed to furthering the former president’s movement.

“I’ll fight to support Donald Trump and his amazing and great America First agenda,” Gunter says in the video.

[Zedonathin2020]

Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffery Ross Gunter is in.

Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist who was ambassador to Iceland during Donald Trump’s administration, announced Monday he’s running for U.S. Senate in Nevada, joining an increasingly crowded field of Republicans looking to unseat first-term Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen.

In a three-minute introductory video, Gunter presented himself as a loyal Trump supporter committed to furthering the former president’s movement.

“I’ll fight to support Donald Trump and his amazing and great America First agenda,” Gunter says in the video.

It it just me, or is the Nevada GOP's bench the absolute worst out of all the swing states?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Former Ambassador to Iceland Jeffery Ross Gunter is in.

Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist who was ambassador to Iceland during Donald Trump’s administration, announced Monday he’s running for U.S. Senate in Nevada, joining an increasingly crowded field of Republicans looking to unseat first-term Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen.

In a three-minute introductory video, Gunter presented himself as a loyal Trump supporter committed to furthering the former president’s movement.

“I’ll fight to support Donald Trump and his amazing and great America First agenda,” Gunter says in the video.

It it just me, or is the Nevada GOP's bench the absolute worst out of all the swing states?

I dunno, the PAGOP's best (and only legitimate) recruit right now for Senate is a multi-millionaire from out of state who already lost a Senate primary to another multi-millionaire from out of state.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1690826825696423936

[SnowLabrador]

Almost nobody is talking about this race, but I honestly think it's a tossup at best for Democrats given the current national environment. I know that the GOP doesn't need it for a majority, but they sure as hell would love to defeat Rosen.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Almost nobody is talking about this race, but I honestly think it's a tossup at best for Democrats given the current national environment. I know that the GOP doesn't need it for a majority, but they sure as hell would love to defeat Rosen.

Rosen will be fine.

[Pollster]

Rosen ran a near-perfect campaign in 2018 that was largely overlooked/taken for granted, as highly competent upper-middle aged women candidates tend to be, due in no small part to the fact that the campaign did not actively try to make its candidate a political celebrity like many Democratic campaigns that year did.

If she does the same this cycle, she's fine so long as the party doesn't collapse nationwide.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rosen ran a near-perfect campaign in 2018 that was largely overlooked/taken for granted, as highly competent upper-middle aged women candidates tend to be, due in no small part to the fact that the campaign did not actively try to make its candidate a political celebrity like many Democratic campaigns that year did.

If she does the same this cycle, she's fine so long as the party doesn't collapse nationwide.

She seems really good at knowing the issues of her state and just coming across as normal - not a career politician - not a political celebrity - doesn't even crutch on her own identity. Nevada is a state where sticking to certain issues for Dems, particularly around abortion, lgbtq rights, healthcare, ect can be very powerful. Opinion polling on these issues would make you think Nevada is as deep blue as WA or CA, but there are other factors that keep the state closer. My guess is assuming no major scandals she outruns Biden by a point or two, but there is def a risk of Biden losing Nevada so she’s not safe

Tilt or Lean D to start.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rosen ran a near-perfect campaign in 2018 that was largely overlooked/taken for granted, as highly competent upper-middle aged women candidates tend to be, due in no small part to the fact that the campaign did not actively try to make its candidate a political celebrity like many Democratic campaigns that year did.

If she does the same this cycle, she's fine so long as the party doesn't collapse nationwide.

She seems really good at knowing the issues of her state and just coming across as normal - not a career politician - not a political celebrity - doesn't even crutch on her own identity. Nevada is a state where sticking to certain issues for Dems, particularly around abortion, lgbtq rights, healthcare, ect can be very powerful. Opinion polling on these issues would make you think Nevada is as deep blue as WA or CA, but there are other factors that keep the state closer. My guess is assuming no major scandals she outruns Biden by a point or two, but there is def a risk of Biden losing Nevada so she’s not safe

Tilt or Lean D to start.

Likely D at worst

[MT Treasurer]

Rosen isn’t a stronger candidate than most other disciplined D challengers/incumbents — she won by the type of margin that any halfway competent Democrat was going to beat Heller by in 2018. Yes, she ran a "good" campaign, but it would have taken a spectacularly bad one to lose that race.

She’s basically doing what Catherine Cortez Masto did, but the question for her/in this race is: Does that work in a presidential year with Biden & Trump on the ballot?

Given the national numbers, it’s hard to argue that this race is any worse than a Toss-up for the GOP even if you assume that down-ballot Ds substantially outrun Joe Biden. Sam Brown isn’t *impressive* or anything, but he can ride a wave to victory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rosen isn’t a stronger candidate than most other disciplined D challengers/incumbents — she won by the type of margin that any halfway competent Democrat was going to beat Heller by in 2018. Yes, she ran a "good" campaign, but it would have taken a spectacularly bad one to lose that race.

She’s basically doing what Catherine Cortez Masto did, but the question for her/in this race is: Does that work in a presidential year with Biden & Trump on the ballot?

Given the national numbers, it’s hard to argue that this race is any worse than a Toss-up for the GOP even if you assume that down-ballot Ds substantially outrun Joe Biden. Sam Brown isn’t *impressive* or anything, but he can ride a wave to victory.

CCM and Rosen are very similar to Dina Titus, and all three have been reelected over and over as I told you before and Rosen is outraising Brown


Lombardo was elected over Sisolak because he was Pro  choice Brown and Laxalt are pro Life

[Burke Bro]

Rosen isn’t a stronger candidate than most other disciplined D challengers/incumbents — she won by the type of margin that any halfway competent Democrat was going to beat Heller by in 2018. Yes, she ran a "good" campaign, but it would have taken a spectacularly bad one to lose that race.

She’s basically doing what Catherine Cortez Masto did, but the question for her/in this race is: Does that work in a presidential year with Biden & Trump on the ballot?

Given the national numbers, it’s hard to argue that this race is any worse than a Toss-up for the GOP even if you assume that down-ballot Ds substantially outrun Joe Biden. Sam Brown isn’t *impressive* or anything, but he can ride a wave to victory.

It's also worth mentioning that Cortez Masto was the only Latina in the Senate and having an easy to associate brand like that can make the difference in a small, heavily Latino state like Nevada, especially if you're running against a Georgetown-educated white guy like Laxalt.

[Steve from Lambeth]

https://twitter.com/tabitha_mueller/status/1765775160689459639

[Greedo punched first]

Marchant will win the primary.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like we're seeing numerous stories/tweets pop up about Brown recently - he's doing no interviews, really not popping up anywhere, etc. - this is the best the NV GOP has?

https://twitter.com/JohannaWarshaw/status/1768420419651219657?s=20

[wbrocks67]

Like what?? lol

https://twitter.com/dabbs346/status/1768626671115014246

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/birenbomb/status/1770097998858494249?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/birenbomb/status/1770097998858494249?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

This sounds like an Arrested Development bit:

The octogenarian has been legally sanctioned for being a slumlord and was convicted of misdemeanor spousal abuse, but he surprisingly advanced through a primary for the Board of Equalization and found himself in a general election against a Republican who told a female lobbyist he should “bitch slap” her at the height of the #MeToo movement, Schaefer won the race, and won re-election in 2022 with the endorsement of the state Democratic Party.

[wbrocks67]

This framing is so idiotic, as if the Rosen campaign woke up this morning and did this solely bc the Cook Political Report moved the race to Tossup

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1775843018525769771?s=20

[Joe Republic]

Jeff Gunter (former ambassador to Iceland during the Trump years) is trying to make a dent in the primary by recently placing a $3.3 million ad buy.

Here's a wonderful example of how Gunter appears to be capitalizing on Sam Brown's facial disfigurements to portray him as a 'swamp creature'.  Typical level of class from someone who describes himself as "110% pro-Trump".

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Jeff Gunter (former ambassador to Iceland during the Trump years) is trying to make a dent in the primary by recently placing a $3.3 million ad buy.

Here's a wonderful example of how Gunter appears to be capitalizing on Sam Brown's facial disfigurements to portray him as a 'swamp creature'.  Typical level of class from someone who describes himself as "110% pro-Trump".

One of the quotes he uses is a tweet from Laura Loomer 💀

[Joe Republic]

Here's some more info about this former member of the Only The Best People club:

In July 2020, CBS News reported that Gunter was "paranoid" about his security in the Icelandic capital, , despite its status as one of the world's safest cities. Gunter asked the State Department to seek special permission from the Icelandic government for him to , had requested to wear a "stab-proof vest" and have door-to-door  service. Three diplomatic sources interviewed by CBS News said that Gunter was persuaded not to arm himself because doing so would be perceived as insulting to Iceland; the embassy nevertheless placed an advertisement in the Icelandic press seeking full-time Icelandic bodyguards, which CBS News' sources described as a way to "placate Gunter's 'irrational' concerns."

According to those interviewed by CBS News, the work climate at the Embassy in Reykjavik was "untenable" under Gunter's leadership. In fewer than two years on the job, Gunter had seven  (DCMs). (The deputy chief of mission is the second-highest position at the embassy.) One DCM was reportedly rejected by Gunter because the ambassador "didn't like the look of him" at their first meeting. The second DCM spent only six months in Iceland, and was followed a series of short-term temporary DCMs with whom Gunter reportedly clashed. CBS News also reported that Gunter "accused others of various, unsubstantiated infractions, including trying to undermine him to Washington and being complicit with the '.'"

In February 2020, after taking personal leave after a conference in Washington, Gunter refused to return to his post in Reykjavik. The State Department attributed Gunter's delayed return to Iceland to the ; however, "multiple sources in Washington, Reykjavík, and elsewhere said Gunter wanted to work remotely from California and told senior officials he would not go back overseas unless expressly ordered to do so by Secretary of State ". A series of senior State Department officials failed to persuade Gunter to return. After Pompeo called him, Gunter returned to Iceland in May 2020. Gunter is controversial in Iceland, with many objecting to his description of  as "the Invisible China Virus!" on Twitter.

In late October 2020, Icelandic newspaper  reported that an employee of the embassy had contracted COVID-19. The article also stated that the relocation of the embassy was fast-tracked despite the fact that an employee had contracted the coronavirus. Gunter reportedly sought to ensure that the move would be complete before the upcoming . Following the publication, the US embassy Facebook page posted a statement claiming the article was “irresponsible,” “shameful,” and “.” The statement asserted that the embassy was “one of the safest havens from COVID-19 in Reykjavík.” The post incorrectly claimed that Iceland had one of the highest rates of COVID-19 infections in Europe.

In 2021, the State Department’s Office of the Inspector General released a report indicating that Gunter had created a "'threatening and intimidating environment'" at the embassy.

…

Republican Party leaders discouraged Gunter from entering the 2024 race, in part because of his record as ambassador and in part because he had not previously voted in any Nevada election.