Nevada Senate 2024 - Brown vs Marchant

[SnowLabrador]

Wait, is he really running?

[JMT]

Wait, is he really running?

It appears so:

https://twitter.com/naokadforeman/status/1653504216332374016?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[SnowLabrador]

If Marchant wins the primary this is Lean D. I view NV-PRES as a tossup, and I don't think there will be legions of Trump-Rosen voters.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

lol

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1653490649482641408?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Tilt D -> Likely D

[Sestak]

The prospect of Jacky Rosen's inevitable reelection is so massive it crashed the forum.

[SnowLabrador]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

This. Rosen isn't going to beat her 2018 margin no matter who her opponent is.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

This. Rosen isn't going to beat her 2018 margin no matter who her opponent is.

Yup, CCM had a race decided by less than a point and she's WAY more popular than Rosen. Not to mention she too ran against a vocal election denier who tied himself to Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

This. Rosen isn't going to beat her 2018 margin no matter who her opponent is.

Yup, CCM had a race decided by less than a point and she's WAY more popular than Rosen. Not to mention she too ran against a vocal election denier who tied himself to Trump.

Lol Biden is leading Trump by 8 in the NV polls

[wbrocks67]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

No... it won't be. Marchant lost by 2.2% in 2022, in a much redder year than 2024 will likely be.

[President Johnson]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

No... it won't be. Marchant lost by 2.2% in 2022, in a much redder year than 2024 will likely be.

It will only be "close" when compared to New York, Florida or Maryland. It just seems like the Republican recuitment problems and candidate quality (or lack thereof) from 2022 extends into 2024. Good news for Dark Brandon.

[GALeftist]

Easy Lean D if he wins the primary, which I'd bet he will? The NVGOP bench is quite awful.

[Spectator]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

No... it won't be. Marchant lost by 2.2% in 2022, in a much redder year than 2024 will likely be.

It will only be "close" when compared to New York, Florida or Maryland. It just seems like the Republican recuitment problems and candidate quality (or lack thereof) from 2022 extends into 2024. Good news for Dark Brandon.

“Republican recruitment problems” are not really problems. The GOP wants these freak shows. They are not flukes.

[Holmes]

They've only had a good recruitment so far in West Virginia, which is honestly such low hanging fruit for them that anyone would win that race.

[The Mikado]

They've only had a good recruitment so far in West Virginia, which is honestly such low hanging fruit for them that anyone would win that race.

Justice isn't even guaranteed to win the primary (though Justice or Mooney would both spank Manchin at this point). And that's kind of the recruitment problem: even in a near guaranteed pickup like WV-SEN Justice will have to fight like hell to get the GOP nomination.

[coloradocowboi]

I agree that the race will be close no matter what, but fail to see how that’s an argument in Marchant’s favor? He’ll spend the whole campaign convincing r-leaning voters that he not insane and either fail at that and lose by 5 or succeed and still lose most swing voters and thus the election anyway. A more moderate candidate would have the advantage of not having to worry about that. He’s obviously a major liability, and it’s a cope to think otherwise

[I’m not Stu]

They've only had a good recruitment so far in West Virginia, which is honestly such low hanging fruit for them that anyone would win that race.

Justice isn't even guaranteed to win the primary (though Justice or Mooney would both spank Manchin at this point). And that's kind of the recruitment problem: even in a near guaranteed pickup like WV-SEN Justice will have to fight like hell to get the GOP nomination.

You don't think Jim Justice will win the GOP nomination?

[miles prower]

https://twitter.com/Phillips4Nevada/status/1644164035020226560

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/Phillips4Nevada/status/1644164035020226560

Who?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is leading by 8 pts in NV over Trump

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/Phillips4Nevada/status/1644164035020226560

Who?

Sounds like a made up name from somebody’s future history timeline.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Phillips4Nevada/status/1644164035020226560

Who?

Sounds like a made up name from somebody’s future history timeline.

It does. Lol.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

This. Rosen isn't going to beat her 2018 margin no matter who her opponent is.

Yup, CCM had a race decided by less than a point and she's WAY more popular than Rosen. Not to mention she too ran against a vocal election denier who tied himself to Trump.

Way more popular? The last time 538 did a survey Rosen was at +1 and CCM was at +4.

Is she closer to the financial institutions/establishment than CCM?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter whom runs now Laxakt isn't on the ballot Trump is down 8 in NV

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Even with Marchant the race will be close

This. Rosen isn't going to beat her 2018 margin no matter who her opponent is.

Yup, CCM had a race decided by less than a point and she's WAY more popular than Rosen. Not to mention she too ran against a vocal election denier who tied himself to Trump.

Way more popular? The last time 538 did a survey Rosen was at +1 and CCM was at +4.

Is she closer to the financial institutions/establishment than CCM?

No, CCM was DSCC chair in 2020 lol