Nevada Senate 2024 - Brown vs Marchant

[JMT]

April Becker NOT running. Will run for Clark County Commission instead.

https://twitter.com/voteaprilbecker/status/1661055261891776513?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

April Becker NOT running. Will run for Clark County Commission instead.

https://twitter.com/voteaprilbecker/status/1661055261891776513?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

Marchant vs Brown (maybe vs Harrison) primary inevitable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They polled Laxalt and he's not in the race and Trump isn't plus 8 in NV if Laxalt isn't running

[Pollster]

The post-July 4th off-year onslaught of announcements continues.

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1676642313530146817?s=20

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Sam Brown would be a bad candidate

[Zedonathin2020]

The post-July 4th off-year onslaught of announcements continues.

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1676642313530146817?s=20

Okay cool, it's still Likely D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rosen will easily win, Gallego and Tester helps poor people unlike R Vets

[Vosem]

Sam Brown would be a bad candidate

Is there a reason for that? In 2022 he came out of nowhere to inspire grassroots enthusiasm while running if anything to Laxalt's left -- and this time around, too, it looks like his main competitor will be a much further-right option in Jim Marchant. (Yes, he is a carpetbagger from Texas, and a more explicit one than most since he tried to build a political career in TX before moving to NV. But Nevada has lots of transplants and isn't a state where this sort of thing matters too much, and in general "I fought for my country" is basically always an effective response to carpetbagging allegations).

Having never reached a general-election scenario, he seems kind of difficult to fully evaluate, but I think his 2022 effort suggests strength.

[Senator Incitatus]

Agree with the above; Brown was one of the few Republicans who actually seemed like an effective candidate in 2022. (But then again, a lot of people were saying that about Kari Lake. Who can tell anymore?)

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/captainsambrown/status/1678391076657274885?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It'll be the most expensive race of the cycle, and then Rosen will out-perform the polls by 5. Same as ever.

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/captainsambrown/status/1678391076657274885?s=46&t=-r8JGl...

I think Sam Brown is probably the future of the GOP, but they might have to exorcise some demons in their ranks first. He's on paper perfect - "compassionate conservative," a veteran - but I don't see any indicators that the party that let its standard-bearer trash John McCain is interested in that.

I genuinely wonder if he would have trouble getting the base out to vote, and the primary against Marchant is gonna be very tough

[Vosem]

I think Sam Brown is probably the future of the GOP, but they might have to exorcise some demons in their ranks first. He's on paper perfect - "compassionate conservative," a veteran - but I don't see any indicators that the party that let its standard-bearer trash John McCain is interested in that.

I genuinely wonder if he would have trouble getting the base out to vote, and the primary against Marchant is gonna be very tough

Brown won the hyper-conservative convention endorsement in 2022 over Laxalt (which Marchant also won, for Secretary of State); I don't think there's much of a reason to think he'd have base issues at all. (The county-by-county results also pretty clearly show Brown doing better in the more Marchanty, extreme rural counties).

That said, while you can underestimate Marchant (note that Brown lost the actual primary to Laxalt 34-56, while Marchant beat Jesse Haw 41-22, with lots of support for various poorly-known candidates in the single-digits), I agree that he's a well-known individual who presents a real challenge to Brown, a primary victory for whom is not at all guaranteed. (And there's no reason to think Marchant would be doomed in the general election, for that matter: he lost 47-50, which isn't some landslide margin and was several points ahead of the Attorney General candidate, who admittedly ran into some unusually serious issues, so even the current very extreme version of Marchant amusingly has been able to demonstrate greater-than-zero appeal to swing voters.)

(There's a strong and weird tendency from a lot of observers to say that, ah, candidates recruited by Daines will of course struggle with the base, but in a lot of cases these are people who have already won those voters in primaries? This also goes for McCormick in PA, who tended to beat Oz in the Trumpiest counties where Mastriano was also very strong. Both of these men have already lost primaries to candidates positioned to their sociological left.)

[wbrocks67]

Jacky Rosen raised $2.7M in Q2, with $7.5M COH

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2023/07/10/8-new-swing-seat-campaigns-to-know-00105434?7

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After that Affirmative Action case Trump Polls declined in NV he was ahead by 8 and now he is down by 3 NV is safe D even More than before without Laxalt

[I’m not Stu]

Marchant will be the GOP nominee.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Feel like this race really hasn't gotten enough talk. Unlikely to be the decisive race in terms of control (Ds must win to have any shot at retaining the Senate), but still very competitive and could be the difference between who holds the Senate come 2026 or 2028.

2022 midterms were interesting cause CCM still won, but Ds didn't do quite as well in NV as some other swing states, barely winning the Senate race and losing the Gov. At the same time, Laxalt was generally seen as less problematic than folks like Masters, Oz, and Walker.

My guess is Rosen should be favored unless she literally falls asleep at the wheel. Currently, Republicans seem poised to face some difficulties nationally come 2024, and I don't think it's their year to win Nevada. Who knows though we're still a long ways out.

[TML]

Feel like this race really hasn't gotten enough talk. Unlikely to be the decisive race in terms of control (Ds must win to have any shot at retaining the Senate), but still very competitive and could be the difference between who holds the Senate come 2026 or 2028.

2022 midterms were interesting cause CCM still won, but Ds didn't do quite as well in NV as some other swing states, barely winning the Senate race and losing the Gov. At the same time, Laxalt was generally seen as less problematic than folks like Masters, Oz, and Walker.

My guess is Rosen should be favored unless she literally falls asleep at the wheel. Currently, Republicans seem poised to face some difficulties nationally come 2024, and I don't think it's their year to win Nevada. Who knows though we're still a long ways out.

2022 was a mixed bag - Republicans won the governor and lieutenant governor races, while Democrats won other statewide races on the ballot and several left-leaning ballot measures also passed. Exit polls showed that independent voters were decisive in determining the victors in the Senate & Governor races, so that means that individual candidate losses can be attributed to the candidates themselves (on that note, I believe that if Dean Heller had been the Republican gubernatorial nominee, he might have fallen short just like Adam Laxalt did, since he, like Laxalt, could be painted as a retread/has-been).

[wbrocks67]

This is GOP's best recruit? Okay...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1680942482320678912

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Laxalt isn't running just like Johnson isn't running in WI and DeWine isn't on the ballot in OH  OH, MT, MI, PA, NV, AZ are Lean D

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think it’s guaranteed that Rosen will "outperform the polls" again in 2024. Obviously we should be careful not to overestimate NV's R trend again, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is the most vulnerable D-held seat after OH/WV/MT and that it’s not even particularly close. (I think AZ/MI/PA and arguably even WI are off the table unless Republicans are winning the presidential race with 290+ EV, but I could see NV flipping even in a narrow Biden win, assuming Marchant’s not the nominee.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t think it’s guaranteed that Rosen will "outperform the polls" again in 2024. Obviously we should be careful not to overestimate NV's R trend again, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is the most vulnerable D-held seat after OH/WV/MT and that it’s not even particularly close. (I think AZ/MI/PA and arguably even WI are off the table unless Republicans are winning the presidential race with 290+ EV, but I could see NV flipping even in a narrow Biden win, assuming Marchant’s not the nominee.)

Lol Laxalt isn't running he overperformrned the polls and still lost we know Johnson and Brown do too but Johnson is DOA in 28 to Sara Rodriguez in a Prez yr

Do users know why Beshear is ahead because Trump J6 is hurting the brand of R party it's not a typical Eday and it's VBM not same day the reason why Lombardo won he is pro choice all the other Rs are pro life

It's the same map as 22

[SnowLabrador]

I don’t think it’s guaranteed that Rosen will "outperform the polls" again in 2024. Obviously we should be careful not to overestimate NV's R trend again, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is the most vulnerable D-held seat after OH/WV/MT and that it’s not even particularly close. (I think AZ/MI/PA and arguably even WI are off the table unless Republicans are winning the presidential race with 290+ EV, but I could see NV flipping even in a narrow Biden win, assuming Marchant’s not the nominee.)

I disagree about Arizona. Sinema running third-party makes it very unpredictable. I also disagree about Wisconsin - that one's a tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t think it’s guaranteed that Rosen will "outperform the polls" again in 2024. Obviously we should be careful not to overestimate NV's R trend again, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is the most vulnerable D-held seat after OH/WV/MT and that it’s not even particularly close. (I think AZ/MI/PA and arguably even WI are off the table unless Republicans are winning the presidential race with 290+ EV, but I could see NV flipping even in a narrow Biden win, assuming Marchant’s not the nominee.)

I disagree about Arizona. Sinema running third-party makes it very unpredictable. I also disagree about Wisconsin - that one's a tossup.

Johnson overperformrned due to IAN we won the WI judge race by 11 and EVERS won in Apr it's Lean D not Tossup we just had an Eday the liberal judge won

It's the same map as 22

[Xing]

I don’t think it’s guaranteed that Rosen will "outperform the polls" again in 2024. Obviously we should be careful not to overestimate NV's R trend again, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is the most vulnerable D-held seat after OH/WV/MT and that it’s not even particularly close. (I think AZ/MI/PA and arguably even WI are off the table unless Republicans are winning the presidential race with 290+ EV, but I could see NV flipping even in a narrow Biden win, assuming Marchant’s not the nominee.)

I agree that NV is more winnable for Republicans than MI/PA/WI, and that Rosen will probably only perform about even with Biden (if Brown is the nominee), but I wouldn’t be so quick to write off AZ for them. Sinema will be at least somewhat of a factor, and I could easily see her getting enough votes for the Republican to win with 47% of the vote or so.