Nevada Senate 2024 - Brown vs Marchant

[Utah Neolib]

Republican candidates could include Mark Amodei, Mark Hutchison, that one guy from Pawn Stars, or Brian Sandoval. Rosen is going to run for re-election, quite obviously.

[Hope For A New Era]

Brian Sandoval

SCARY!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://law.unlv.edu/faculty/governor-brian-sandoval

Sandoval is President of UNLV he already declined to run in 22 no he has no plans to run for office ever again,, this is UNLV Law school

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1594788848575582208?s=20&t=hN8rs_Dx-...

[SnowLabrador]

Rosen isn't completely doomed, but this race is no better than a tossup for her. Cortez Masto only won by less than 1%, and GOP turnout is likely to soar with Trump or DeSantis on the ballot. Tilt R.

[YE]

Rosen is only a decent incumbent but the real problem for the GOP here is the lack of strong candidates.

[Tekken_Guy]

Rosen isn't completely doomed, but this race is no better than a tossup for her. Cortez Masto only won by less than 1%, and GOP turnout is likely to soar with Trump or DeSantis on the ballot. Tilt R.

Dems don’t have room to grow their turnout either?

[YE]

Rosen isn't completely doomed, but this race is no better than a tossup for her. Cortez Masto only won by less than 1%, and GOP turnout is likely to soar with Trump or DeSantis on the ballot. Tilt R.

Dems don’t have room to grow their turnout either?

They absolutely do.

https://twitter.com/carlosodio/status/1594738266141491201?s=46&t=n-9766HJ8rl...

[MT Treasurer]

While... *ahem*... many clearly overestimated Nevada's Republican trend, they weren’t so much wrong about Cortez Masto being the most vulnerable Democratic Senator this year. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that this may be the most promising GOP pick-up opportunity in the Senate after WV, OH, and MT.

Even after Reid, Democrats clearly have a leg up on the GOP when it comes to ground game operations, although this is not really a NV-specific problem for Republicans at this point (but nonetheless a very big one). Maybe Lombardo being in the governor's mansion can change some of that, we’ll see.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

While... *ahem*... many clearly overestimated Nevada's Republican trend, they weren’t so much wrong about Cortez Masto being the most vulnerable Democratic Senator this year. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that this may be the most promising GOP pick-up opportunity in the Senate after WV, OH, and MT.

You guys crack me up that you are gonna get 4/5 Senate seats with 4.2 unemployment, no you guys aren't if didn't happen in 22 it's not gonna happen in 24 Manchin and Tester won in 2012 when Romney easily won WVA and MT and Brown, Manchin and Tester won in 2018 when Ds lost IN, FL, ND and MO

Just a note we're gonna win the PVI in a Prez yr we always do a 51(49 Eday is 218/217 H and 51(50 Senate losing only WV but FL is a battlegrounds Trump is losing to Biden we don't know whom is running against Scott but we have a wave insurance candidates in John Love in TX

[S019]

While... *ahem*... many clearly overestimated Nevada's Republican trend, they weren’t so much wrong about Cortez Masto being the most vulnerable Democratic Senator this year. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that this may be the most promising GOP pick-up opportunity in the Senate after WV, OH, and MT.

Even after Reid, Democrats clearly have a leg up on the GOP when it comes to ground game operations, although this is not really a NV-specific problem for Republicans at this point (but nonetheless a very big one). Maybe Lombardo being in the governor's mansion can change some of that, we’ll see.

I can see an argument for WI honestly, but NV is the likeliest, I agree.

[BloJo94]

Might Sam Brown run again?

[Utah Neolib]

Would be funny if Laxalt tries again. Very possible!

[Minnesota Mike]

Brian Sandoval

SCARY!

Republicans have begged Sandoval to run every Senate election since it least 2016, he has never shown any interest. He seems happy in his current position as President of UNR.

[Roll Roons]

Amodei OUT: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/amodei-says-he-wont-run-for-senate-in-2024

[Mr.Phips]

Amodei OUT: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/amodei-says-he-wont-run-for-senate-in-2024

I don’t see how he’d be any stronger than generic R here.  He certainly isn’t Mr Charisma.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brian Sandoval

SCARY!

Republicans have begged Sandoval to run every Senate election since it least 2016, he has never shown any interest. He seems happy in his current position as President of UNR.

He is Prez and Dean of UNLV law school and doesn't want any part of a Trump party

[kwabbit]

While... *ahem*... many clearly overestimated Nevada's Republican trend, they weren’t so much wrong about Cortez Masto being the most vulnerable Democratic Senator this year. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that this may be the most promising GOP pick-up opportunity in the Senate after WV, OH, and MT.

Even after Reid, Democrats clearly have a leg up on the GOP when it comes to ground game operations, although this is not really a NV-specific problem for Republicans at this point (but nonetheless a very big one). Maybe Lombardo being in the governor's mansion can change some of that, we’ll see.

I mean you weren’t wrong about Nevada’s trend. It’s just that the national environment for the Senate was Democrat leaning on the aggregate. The fact that Nevada was the only Senate competitive race that actually ended up competitive is a testament to that.

Amodei not running is understandable, but he was skittish about running in 2022 when it’s pretty clear he would’ve won. It feels like the same might happen again in 2024. Amodei isn’t charismatic, but boring is a good brand for Republicans at the moment when charisma is so correlated with kookiness.

[wbrocks67]

Jacky Rosen's fav is 50/36 in new NV Indy/Noble Predictive poll

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-winning-hypothetical-matchups-against-trump-desantis-in-nevada

[SnowLabrador]

Jacky Rosen's fav is 50/36 in new NV Indy/Noble Predictive poll

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-winning-hypothetical-matchups-against-trump-desantis-in-nevada

I find it hard to see Biden winning Nevada by anything close to 8 points. Partisan registration in Nevada has been moving towards Republicans ever since Cortez Masto narrowly won reelection and Sisolak lost.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jacky Rosen's fav is 50/36 in new NV Indy/Noble Predictive poll

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-winning-hypothetical-matchups-against-trump-desantis-in-nevada

I find it hard to see Biden winning Nevada by anything close to 8 points. Partisan registration in Nevada has been moving towards Republicans ever since Cortez Masto narrowly won reelection and Sisolak lost.

Personally, I have skepticism Biden wins Nevada by 8. Maybe he wins it by 5, but 8 is a bridge too far for me.
And I would expect CCM to roughly track with Biden.

[Not Me, Us]

Amodei seems like the strongest candidate outside of Sandoval to me. If he's out, I think Rosen will be fine.

[wbrocks67]

Jacky Rosen's fav is 50/36 in new NV Indy/Noble Predictive poll

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-winning-hypothetical-matchups-against-trump-desantis-in-nevada

I find it hard to see Biden winning Nevada by anything close to 8 points. Partisan registration in Nevada has been moving towards Republicans ever since Cortez Masto narrowly won reelection and Sisolak lost.

Personally, I have skepticism Biden wins Nevada by 8. Maybe he wins it by 5, but 8 is a bridge too far for me.
And I would expect CCM to roughly track with Biden.

Not saying Biden will win by 8, but RE: registration - important to note that many young voters are automatically being registered as Independents, which could be a caveat as to why Dem reg is kind of meh.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jacky Rosen's fav is 50/36 in new NV Indy/Noble Predictive poll

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-winning-hypothetical-matchups-against-trump-desantis-in-nevada

I find it hard to see Biden winning Nevada by anything close to 8 points. Partisan registration in Nevada has been moving towards Republicans ever since Cortez Masto narrowly won reelection and Sisolak lost.

Personally, I have skepticism Biden wins Nevada by 8. Maybe he wins it by 5, but 8 is a bridge too far for me.
And I would expect CCM to roughly track with Biden.

Not saying Biden will win by 8, but RE: registration - important to note that many young voters are automatically being registered as Independents, which could be a caveat as to why Dem reg is kind of meh.

Fair point.

[JMT]

lol

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1653490649482641408?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...