AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Spectator]

It’ll be interesting to see how Biden and the DSCC handle Sinema. If they back her, she might still clear the primary field. Biden’s endorsement would probably keep would be challengers at bay. Maybe they can sway her to support filibuster reform.

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I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

[Spectator]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

True. But if they wanna win statewide they’ve got to make some difficult choices with a thin bench of Not Trumpy candidates

One thing I realized about how bad the AZ bench is that even if Dems lose the Superintendent race to Tom Horne, the guy is freaking 77 years old. Obviously not future Senate or Governor material. The bench of “good” candidates is essentially just Yee and Ciscomani (if he even wins this year which is looking iffy). But they have to survive a primary in a state that constantly produces freak shows out of GOP primaries. I expect Kari Lake to run in 2024 on the basis of the governors race being stolen or something.

[Spectator]

Surprised no one has mentioned the level of weight that Katie Hobbs will now have in the primary. She was the successor to Sinema in the state legislature and Hobbs has spoken fondly of her in the past. I have to imagine her increased level of prominence as the Governor now could help Sinema were Hobbs to back her. Same with Kelly, but probably to a lesser extent since Governor is more visible.

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I mean I can’t fault her for not wanting to sit in a middle seat. The other stuff is over the top and prima Donna though.

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Apparently Maricopa County Sheriff Paul Penzone is also considering a run:

https://twitter.com/vaughnhillyard/status/1617510201749274625?s=46&t=DwT6i-9...

He’d make more sense for AZ-01

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She’ll get like 4% if the vote max when all is said and done. If she even bothers.

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How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

[Spectator]

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

Obviously. But these people would take their cues from the figureheads that a vote for Sinema is essentially a vote for Lake/Lamb. In the end, I don’t think many actual “McCainites” (I’m skeptical that many of them exist anymore—they seem to be solid Democrats now since 2018) would actually vote for Sinema knowing it could hand the seat to Lake.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

In states with a convention system, this would be an option. In states without a convention, the GOP would need to nominate someone who would willingly drop out for Sinema -- very unlikely. Also, I agree with oldtimer: Sinema's ship for switching to the GOP has sailed. Had she switched the day after the Georgia runoffs (or actually handed the Senate to McConnell), she could've made it; had she acted to prevent Biden judicial nominees from getting through, she could've made it. As it stands it's far too late and she's lost her leverage.

If Kari Lake doesn't run for the Senate (...it kind of vaguely looks like she won't), there'll be an open primary. One fairly serious candidate, Mark Lamb, is already in (I think he would be weak in the general, like Finchem/Lake, but they lost by 0-4 points, so in a better environment he could be a live opportunity). Probably more will enter.

Doesn't the AZ GOP make their own rules though? Why can't they just decline to put up a candidate?

They can't just make the decision to cancel their primary as a party with major party status if they have a candidate running for it already. Democrats didn't have a nominee for Mine Inspector last year, but that was only because no one ran. Unless all the Republicans drop out (they won't), there will be an official Republican nominee no matter if the party decided to get behind Sinema's independent bid or not.

[Spectator]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

This is a little off topic, but I get the sense that AZ has more of these type of republicans than any other swing state. Am I just overthinking that or is this correct? These type of very "soft" republicans who will vote Democrat easily if someone is "too right".
Does anyone know why AZ specifically has so many of these?

Those “McCain Republicans” that voted for Sinema-Biden-Kelly (2x)-Hobbs (2x) are called Democrats

[Spectator]

Lake was a super strong candidate who outperformed the Senate candidate by 4 in 2022.

Yes, she was so strong that she lost a race despite it being in a state that was effectively tied in 2020, where Biden had a 40% approval rating, and inflation was record high. Bang up job there, Kari!

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Frankly, one of the worst things about Trump is that he inspired/encouraged so many awful people like Lake to run for office.

They generally don’t have the success he has though.

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Likely D race remains Likely D. Gallego is gonna cruise.

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Say what you will about Sinema. She was effective as a bridge, and I don’t know which Democrats are going to be that liaison to getting things done once her and Manchin leave next year.

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Amazing to see Arizona essentially doing a Virginia speed run

I don’t think we’ve seen any state go from reliably red for President, Governor and Senate to electing Democrats to all those offices in a short time. Arizona it only took four years to flip. Virginia took from 2001-2008 for that to happen. Colorado I guess counts? 2004-2008 saw that happen there.