AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

Has she decided to run as the de facto Republican like Lieberman in 2006?

Nope. Republicans hate her lol.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

Has she decided to run as the de facto Republican like Lieberman in 2006?

She’s trying but thing is Republicans will also have actual nominee so she’s still in 10% land

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

Has she decided to run as the de facto Republican like Lieberman in 2006?

She’s trying but thing is Republicans will also have actual nominee so she’s still in 10% land

Unless Cocaine Mitch pulls some strings.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

Has she decided to run as the de facto Republican like Lieberman in 2006?

She’s trying but thing is Republicans will also have actual nominee so she’s still in 10% land

Unless Cocaine Mitch pulls some strings.

Have you seen the Arizona Republican Party? Those guys are getting their MAGA and no establishment RINO is going to hold them down.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

Has she decided to run as the de facto Republican like Lieberman in 2006?

She’s trying but thing is Republicans will also have actual nominee so she’s still in 10% land

Unless Cocaine Mitch pulls some strings.

Even if he tried, there would be a revolt, and some January 6th attendee on the Constitution Party line or something would get to double digit %

[DaleCooper]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

No one who was ever open to voting for a Democrat is going to vote for Sinema at this point.  Also, any general election with Trump on the ballot will inevitably be a referendum on Trump.

[DaleCooper]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

This is gibberish.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

No one who was ever open to voting for a Democrat is going to vote for Sinema at this point.  Also, any general election with Trump on the ballot will inevitably be a referendum on Trump.

And if he’s not the ballot will make it a referendum on Biden.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- If Trump is not the nominee, the AZ Senate race is more winnable for Ds than the AZ Presidential Race

[DaleCooper]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

No one who was ever open to voting for a Democrat is going to vote for Sinema at this point.  Also, any general election with Trump on the ballot will inevitably be a referendum on Trump.

And if he’s not the ballot will make it a referendum on Biden.

Trump is as likely to be on the ballot as Biden is at this point.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

No one who was ever open to voting for a Democrat is going to vote for Sinema at this point.  Also, any general election with Trump on the ballot will inevitably be a referendum on Trump.

And if he’s not the ballot will make it a referendum on Biden.

If he’s not on the ballot, then it’ll be about abortion and (to a lesser degree) other issues.  That issue hasn’t lost any salience.  2024 is not going to be a referendum on Biden and trying to make it into one is a losing strategy for Republicans.  People don’t care about Biden enough for it to be a referendum on him.  Democrats have consistently been pretty meh about him and it’s clear he doesn’t animate the Republican base the way Hillary or Obama did.  Republicans still hate him b/c he’s a Democratic President, but it is in the generic way they hate all remotely prominent Democrats.  

Biden has no scandals for Republicans to latch onto, much less any the public cares about.  And no, Republicans whining about Hunter Biden nothingburgers like a broken record or embarrassing themselves by making up idiotic conspiracy theories about how “Biden was a foreign agent as VP and our proof is that…umm…umm…umm…” are not Biden scandals.  No one cares about Hunter Biden and even if we lived in an alternate world where the public did, Hunter Biden being a schmuck has nothing to do with Joe Biden.  And the conspiracy theories of the week from congressional Republicans just make Republicans look dumb, desperate, and delusional.  Then again, if House Republicans were smart, they wouldn’t have made a violent domestic abuser (Comer) to be the face of their Evil Biden fanfic committee.  But I digress…

The point is that a referendum on Biden was always unlikely, but at this point it’s clearly not in the cards and Republicans are only fooling themselves if they think it will be.

The other issue is, if not Trump, then who?  DeSantis is a considerably weaker candidate than Trump, despite Republican donor class wishcasting to the contrary.  Mike Pence is hated by pretty much the entire party rank and file at this point (the focus group comments he gets from #NeverTrumpers to Trump diehards are universally scathing).  Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Tom Cotton aren’t running.  Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Nikki Haley aren’t serious candidates and would have no shot even if Trump and DeSantis sat out 2024 (obviously that means a much more crowded field).  That Vivek guy is a joke-tier nobody who the media gives unmerited attention to generate filler content.  No one in the Republican Party is interested in buying what Chris Sununu is selling.

Ultimately though, this is a moot point b/c Trump is going to be the Republican nominee.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

Yup, especially if Lake is the R-nominee. That said, the group she's targeting is pretty small and I doubt she'll break double digits in the end. It will be the trouncing she fully deserves.

[DaleCooper]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

Yup, especially if Lake is the R-nominee. That said, the group she's targeting is pretty small and I doubt she'll break double digits in the end. It will be the trouncing she fully deserves.

I don't think she'll do much better than the libertarian candidate, honestly.

[Epaminondas]

So is it Lak-OUT?

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, seems weird for Sinema to attempt to do a whole "anti-Biden" Indy lane, given that that just affirms that no Democrats will vote for her.

[Utah Neolib]

So is it Lak-OUT?

She’ll probably announce her run after the US Supreme Court ignores her election appeal request.

[Ferguson97]

Sinema is very obviously not going to get votes from either partisan Democrats or MAGA Republicans. The people who are going to vote for her in a race with Gallego and Lake are Biden-McSally voters. And given a binary choice between Gallego and Lake, I think most of those people would vote for Gallego.

I just don't really see an argument for the idea that Sinema running as an independent would result in her taking more votes from the Republican candidate.

[VBM]

Sinema is very obviously not going to get votes from either partisan Democrats or MAGA Republicans. The people who are going to vote for her in a race with Gallego and Lake are Biden-McSally voters. And given a binary choice between Gallego and Lake, I think most of those people would vote for Gallego.

I just don't really see an argument for the idea that Sinema running as an independent would result in her taking more votes from the Republican candidate.

Sinema has a higher favorability rating among Republicans than she does with Democrats

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

[Roll Roons]

Assuming Lamb is the nominee, I would think Gallego wins here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Rs loses AZ it's over they can't win even with DeSantis the EC college without AZ because WI and VA goes D and GA

Fox news got into trouble to call AZ early and not to mention R problems in OH, MO, FL, TX and NC Rs ratings don't matter on red states as Steve Konraki says the maps are blank Obama and Clinton win red states

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

Lean Gallego >>> Likely Gallego

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?