AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Dani Rose]

So I feel like Kelly's seemingly inevitable victory opens up the question: who do we want to primary Sinema in 2024? Gallego seems like the popular choice, and from a socialist perspective I really want to want him, but I also seem to recall he had some kind of skeleton fall out of his closet around 2018. Very hazy on that, though.

[MargieCat]

So I feel like Kelly's seemingly inevitable victory opens up the question: who do we want to primary Sinema in 2024? Gallego seems like the popular choice, and from a socialist perspective I really want to want him, but I also seem to recall he had some kind of skeleton fall out of his closet around 2018. Very hazy on that, though.

First choice: Ruben Gallego

Second choice: Greg Stanton

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema or Gallego win, Gallego seems like he is staying since Rs only won 6 seats

[Spectator]

It’ll be interesting to see how Biden and the DSCC handle Sinema. If they back her, she might still clear the primary field. Biden’s endorsement would probably keep would be challengers at bay. Maybe they can sway her to support filibuster reform.

[MillennialModerate]

It’ll be interesting to see how Biden and the DSCC handle Sinema. If they back her, she might still clear the primary field. Biden’s endorsement would probably keep would be challengers at bay. Maybe they can sway her to support filibuster reform.

It would be irrelevant now that the House is gone

[MillennialModerate]

And I’m convinced she isn’t running.  Some of the moves she made were so bad and so unpopular that not running in 2024 seems like the only answer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's projected it's gonna be 220/215 R H and we're gonna win 5 seats back in 24 anyways because no one is gonna challenge Gillibrand and Kaine is gonna win in 24 and win VA

They will have Incumbency advantage but that won't have weight in NY and of course if we lose CA seats Garcia he probably loses with Feinstein on ballot

Don't be overly dramatic we only lost the H thanks to NY, VA and CA blue States that can be won back in 24 Feinstein, Kaine and Gillibrand are on the ballot in 24

Sinema is safe Sabato and Cook predicted 237 RH

[Squirrel Nut]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

[xavier110]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

[Spectator]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

[xavier110]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

True. But if they wanna win statewide they’ve got to make some difficult choices with a thin bench of Not Trumpy candidates

[Spectator]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

True. But if they wanna win statewide they’ve got to make some difficult choices with a thin bench of Not Trumpy candidates

One thing I realized about how bad the AZ bench is that even if Dems lose the Superintendent race to Tom Horne, the guy is freaking 77 years old. Obviously not future Senate or Governor material. The bench of “good” candidates is essentially just Yee and Ciscomani (if he even wins this year which is looking iffy). But they have to survive a primary in a state that constantly produces freak shows out of GOP primaries. I expect Kari Lake to run in 2024 on the basis of the governors race being stolen or something.

[S019]

Engel or some other D could easily win AZ-06 in 2024 anyways even againsy Ciscomani so running him statewide makes sense, but the AZGOP primary electorate is known for well not thinking critically about their chances of political success. It’s kind of funny how McSally looks like a good candidate compared to some of the clowns they put up this year.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gallego or Stanton would be ideal.

[xavier110]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

True. But if they wanna win statewide they’ve got to make some difficult choices with a thin bench of Not Trumpy candidates

One thing I realized about how bad the AZ bench is that even if Dems lose the Superintendent race to Tom Horne, the guy is freaking 77 years old. Obviously not future Senate or Governor material. The bench of “good” candidates is essentially just Yee and Ciscomani (if he even wins this year which is looking iffy). But they have to survive a primary in a state that constantly produces freak shows out of GOP primaries. I expect Kari Lake to run in 2024 on the basis of the governors race being stolen or something.

You can’t forget Wendy Rogers either.

Speaking of the legislature, I think one to look out for is state sen JD Mesnard. He is very conservative but has managed to win a Biden/Kelly LD for years now. He could throw a lot of red meat but maintain some decorum.

He would be on message and not inflammatory.

[SnowLabrador]

Does Sinema have a chance in the primary? I'm worried that her incumbency might be too much to overcome.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Does Sinema have a chance in the primary? I'm worried that her incumbency might be too much to overcome.

I would think so despite her approval rating. I don't think you can completely write off an incumbent senator in a primary two years out. The left does hater her but two years is an eternity in politics and there is always a chance there is not consolidation behind a single challenger. .

[xavier110]

Does Sinema have a chance in the primary? I'm worried that her incumbency might be too much to overcome.

My gut says she’s toast, but, yes, two years is an eternity away. Bernie had surprising strength here in 16 and 20, and we have a small Black population/D “machine” voter base that would fall in line with the party apparatus. Lots of educated white libs here now—and they’re probably not voting Sinema. Couple that with Gallego likely running well with Hispanics and I don’t know what Sinema’s coalition would even look like.

The Gallego clip dunking on Sinema is hilarious. “Sinema this, Sinema that, Sinema…” “So are you primarying her?” “I have not decided but Sinema sucks, Sinema this, Sinema that.”

[Hope For A New Era]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

AZGOP isn't the smartest.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/On_Politike/status/1592503184286547968

https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1592550764345294849

[Ferguson97]

I expect Kari Lake to run in 2024 on the basis of the governors race being stolen or something.

Congratulations to Senator-elect Gallego, in that case.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expect Kari Lake to run in 2024 on the basis of the governors race being stolen or something.

Congratulations to Senator-elect Gallego, in that case.

Lake already stated she isn't interested in running for Senate or H only she wanted to be Gov these are same users that thinks Sandoval is gonna run against Rosen and Sandoval is Prez of UNLV Law school and declined to run against CCM

[Epaminondas]

Does Arizona have closed primaries? If so, what Dems would still vote for her?

The biggest risk at this stage has got to be splitting the anti-Sinema primary vote. She might squeak through with 25% if there are 3 or more.

[xavier110]

Does Arizona have closed primaries? If so, what Dems would still vote for her?

The biggest risk at this stage has got to be splitting the anti-Sinema primary vote. She might squeak through with 25% if there are 3 or more.

Indies may participate.

[MargieCat]

I wonder who the GOP nominates in 2024.

This will be competitive if the GOP nominates someone sane, and that's a big if.

Top-tier recruits would be Juan Ciscomani (if he doesn't make lots of mistakes in his first term), Doug Ducey, Kimberly Yee, Mark Brnovich, or even Karrin Taylor Robson.

Mid-tier recruits would be Andy Biggs, Debbie Lesko, or David Schweikert.

Bottom-tier would be Mark Finchem, Paul Gosar, Wendy Rogers, or Kelli Ward.

I hope they choose from the third group.