Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs actually did slightly better in that VBM batch (55/45) than yesterdays batch (54/46)

[It’s so Joever]

AZ-06 - All of the red areas are at least 85%+ reporting, while Pima portion is only 73% reporting, and the red areas have smaller # of votes and seem to be maxing out... with Pima still having 100K+ statewide left to count... this looks very interesting. She's only down 5k despite another red county batch a little bit ago.

Rough math here but she probably has to win the remaining Pima votes with at least 55% in order to win, assuming nothing crazy out of Cochise or Pinal happens. Right now she's slightly below 55% of the vote in the Pima portion.

Democrats keeping the house is looking more and more likely 👀👀

I guess the chances since we lost CO-3 have gone up from 2% to 3% so yes.

[2016]

Kari Lake will be the new Governor of Arizona. There were a lot of Ballots dropped off on E-Day in AZ that will be counted tomorrow and if the Hobbs leads remains within 30K Votes after tonights Batch it is over for Hobbs soon.

Doesn't look like it, chief.

It does, Maricopas Batch dropped and as I predicted Lake stayed within 30K Votes of Hobbs. Tomorrows drop will be by all accounts more favorable to Lake!

[wbrocks67]

AZ-06 - All of the red areas are at least 85%+ reporting, while Pima portion is only 73% reporting, and the red areas have smaller # of votes and seem to be maxing out... with Pima still having 100K+ statewide left to count... this looks very interesting. She's only down 5k despite another red county batch a little bit ago.

Rough math here but she probably has to win the remaining Pima votes with at least 55% in order to win, assuming nothing crazy out of Cochise or Pinal happens. Right now she's slightly below 55% of the vote in the Pima portion.

Which seems possible, given that I would think a good chunk of those Pima ballots are still VBMs left to count, since they're only doing 20k a day.

[Devils30]

The AP and other networks should call this for Kelly. It is simply not close.

[Skill and Chance]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I see Yavapai is almost all in now, and Lake and Masters are both underperforming Trump's 2020 margin there. That seems encouraging.

[philly09]

Is there any way to access the NYT map without the paywall?

[soundchaser]

The AP and other networks should call this for Kelly. It is simply not close.

They’ve all been uber-cautious this year because of the closeness of Biden’s victory in 2020, but yeah.

[Alben Barkley]

Kari Lake will be the new Governor of Arizona. There were a lot of Ballots dropped off on E-Day in AZ that will be counted tomorrow and if the Hobbs leads remains within 30K Votes after tonights Batch it is over for Hobbs soon.

Wouldn't be so sure. Seems like CW would point towards:

VBMs - Dem leaning
In-person Election Day - Rep-leaning
Dropping off Election Day - wash/50-50

Do we know how what Lake got with the election day in person batch?

What is "CW?" That network with terrible superhero TV shows? What's the source on election day drop-offs being a wash, because that's big.

[Flo 2.0]

AZ-06 - All of the red areas are at least 85%+ reporting, while Pima portion is only 73% reporting, and the red areas have smaller # of votes and seem to be maxing out... with Pima still having 100K+ statewide left to count... this looks very interesting. She's only down 5k despite another red county batch a little bit ago.

Rough math here but she probably has to win the remaining Pima votes with at least 55% in order to win, assuming nothing crazy out of Cochise or Pinal happens. Right now she's slightly below 55% of the vote in the Pima portion.

Democrats keeping the house is looking more and more likely 👀👀

I guess the chances since we lost CO-3 have gone up from 2% to 3% so yes.

begone doomer

[Holmes]

Kari Lake will be the new Governor of Arizona. There were a lot of Ballots dropped off on E-Day in AZ that will be counted tomorrow and if the Hobbs leads remains within 30K Votes after tonights Batch it is over for Hobbs soon.

Doesn't look like it, chief.

It does, Maricopas Batch dropped and as I predicted Lake stayed within 30K Votes of Hobbs. Tomorrows drop will be by all accounts more favorable to Lake!

Do you have inside knowledge or some sort of clairvoyance about how tomorrow's drop in Maricopa will shake out?

[Alben Barkley]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

Like 3 people live in NV rurals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kari Lake will be the new Governor of Arizona. There were a lot of Ballots dropped off on E-Day in AZ that will be counted tomorrow and if the Hobbs leads remains within 30K Votes after tonights Batch it is over for Hobbs soon.

Wouldn't be so sure. Seems like CW would point towards:

VBMs - Dem leaning
In-person Election Day - Rep-leaning
Dropping off Election Day - wash/50-50

Do we know how what Lake got with the election day in person batch?

What is "CW?" That network with terrible superhero TV shows? What's the source on election day drop-offs being a wash, because that's big.

conventional wisdom.
CW would say CW endorsed Gary Johnson in the 2008 presidential race.

[soundchaser]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

At the rate she’s been winning the Clark drops, she absolutely does.

[Holmes]

Kari Lake will be the new Governor of Arizona. There were a lot of Ballots dropped off on E-Day in AZ that will be counted tomorrow and if the Hobbs leads remains within 30K Votes after tonights Batch it is over for Hobbs soon.

Wouldn't be so sure. Seems like CW would point towards:

VBMs - Dem leaning
In-person Election Day - Rep-leaning
Dropping off Election Day - wash/50-50

Do we know how what Lake got with the election day in person batch?

What is "CW?" That network with terrible superhero TV shows? What's the source on election day drop-offs being a wash, because that's big.

Conventional wisdom

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1590906054468304896

[wbrocks67]

5 counties in AZ done counting.

In 3 red counties, Lake underperforming Trump by 2-3%
In 1 red county, Lake underperforming Trump by 9%

In the one blue county, Santa Cruz, Hobbs underperforming Biden by 2%.

Yavapi may be most consequential, b/c it's the biggest (112K voters), and Lake underperforming Trump 3% there.

[Gass3268]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

This has been accounted for in determining what CCM needs and in many cases the Republicans are performing 10-20% worse than what was previously counted.

[Alben Barkley]

5 counties in AZ done counting.

In 3 red counties, Lake underperforming Trump by 2-3%
In 1 red county, Lake underperforming Trump by 9%

In the one blue county, Santa Cruz, Hobbs underperforming Biden by 2%.

Yavapi may be most consequential, b/c it's the biggest (112K voters), and Lake underperforming Trump 3% there.

Seems to be in line with a narrow Hobbs victory, as predicted by the exit polls.

[wbrocks67]

Not quite sure Masto has enough to come back in NV now?  Rurals keep adding more mail votes, too.

At the rate she’s been winning the Clark drops, she absolutely does.

Yeah, Masto is down 12.6K and Nevada has at least 110K left to count.

[2016]

Kari Lake will be the new Governor of Arizona. There were a lot of Ballots dropped off on E-Day in AZ that will be counted tomorrow and if the Hobbs leads remains within 30K Votes after tonights Batch it is over for Hobbs soon.

Doesn't look like it, chief.

It does, Maricopas Batch dropped and as I predicted Lake stayed within 30K Votes of Hobbs. Tomorrows drop will be by all accounts more favorable to Lake!

Do you have inside knowledge or some sort of clairvoyance about how tomorrow's drop in Maricopa will shake out?

It will be more favorable to Lake.
https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1590904874186985472

[Alben Barkley]

I can't believe the dummymander actually worked in Nevada. Too bad the courts threw out the gerrymander in New York. If not the House would be much more likely to go D.

[Ferguson97]

MSNBC House projections are 220R / 215D

Just three more upsets and we keep the House!!!!!!!!!!

[wbrocks67]

CNN says Masters needs to win 58-60% of the remaining 540K votes to win. I don't see how this can't be called at this point.