Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[DaleCooper]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

This is pretty much the worst midterm result imaginable for Republicans this year. No way around it. If I was a Republican I'd probably have to be on suicide watch. I can't imagine how they're feeling after this humiliation.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I'm feeling good about AZ-01

I would urge caution, especially cause AZ-01 is entirely nested in Maricopa County; it's entirely possible the final dumps could pad Rs or Ds more than we expect. Def realistic.

In AZ-06, Ciscomani is slightly underrunning Trump in the 2 rural counties in, but Engle needs to get a larger margin out of Pima. Again, we don't know how the remaining ballots skew.

How likely are Valadao and Garcia to lose at this point? What about CA-03? I wonder if some Republicans didn't show up in CA-03 because they got locked out of an assembly district there despite the region being Republican

Dang, I hadn’t actually looked at the two maps and there’s a lot more overlap than I had realized. Not sure that a state senate election would affect turnout for what was seen as an at least vaguely competitive US House seat though.

[Crumpets]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

Oh no! Now we won't get to try to govern with the slimmest majority in 90 years!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

By the narrowest of margins. Do realize how pathetic of a midterm performance this has been for the GOP?

[SCNCmod]

Off the cuff- In the past 2 presidential elections the Popular Vote margin for Dems- grew by over 1 Million votes in the week following the election (as mail in ballot etc were finally counted). And a large portion of those votes were in California).

... if that holds- it seems like all of the close CA (uncalled) races... have reason to be optimistic.

Am i remembering this correctly?

[Holmes]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

Yeah cause they picked up a Senate seat, probably a net gain of one in the end, probably will end up losing only one governor seat and have a net gain of one or two, flipped a few state legislatures, and Republicans will probably only have a majority in the House of around 2 - 5 seats.

During a midterm where they’re the party in power AND during record inflation!

If you don’t think that’s a rebuke of the Republican party, you’re a fool.

[Frodo]

House projection numbers by NBC News has just shrunk the GOP majority margin to less than a handful of seats:

Republicans: 220
Democrats: 215

If we're talking about a GOP majority of 218-220 seats, I am not sure why McCarthy would even want to be Speaker. I mean, I know it's been his lifelong dream and all but talk about drinking from a poisoned chalice. He runs the risk of having his agenda obstructed by only one or two members of the Freedom caucus and look how people like Gaetz and Good have already begun lambasting him since the election. It's clear they don't fear him one bit.

I think this is an opportunity for him to truly put the Trump era behind us by putting aside the Hastert Rule, and start off by trying to become speaker with both Republican and Democratic support, setting a bipartisan tone.  By so doing, he can isolate the MAGA crazies in their own insane asylum while the rest of the chamber (the adults in the room, so to speak) gets to work on the people's business.  

We are talking about Kevin McCarthy. I don't know what you're talking about.

Redemption.  

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Going to say CCM and Lombardo both win, and Ralston gets both right

[SevenEleven]

Off the cuff- In the past 2 presidential elections the Popular Vote margin for Dems- grew by over 1 Million votes in the week following the election (as mail in ballot etc were finally counted). And a large portion of those votes were in California).

... if that holds- it seems like all of the close CA (uncalled) races... have reason to be optimistic.

Am i remembering this correctly?

Yes lol.

[SevenEleven]

House projection numbers by NBC News has just shrunk the GOP majority margin to less than a handful of seats:

Republicans: 220
Democrats: 215

If we're talking about a GOP majority of 218-220 seats, I am not sure why McCarthy would even want to be Speaker. I mean, I know it's been his lifelong dream and all but talk about drinking from a poisoned chalice. He runs the risk of having his agenda obstructed by only one or two members of the Freedom caucus and look how people like Gaetz and Good have already begun lambasting him since the election. It's clear they don't fear him one bit.

I think this is an opportunity for him to truly put the Trump era behind us by putting aside the Hastert Rule, and start off by trying to become speaker with both Republican and Democratic support, setting a bipartisan tone.  By so doing, he can isolate the MAGA crazies in their own insane asylum while the rest of the chamber (the adults in the room, so to speak) gets to work on the people's business.  

We are talking about Kevin McCarthy. I don't know what you're talking about.

Redemption.  

Kevin McCarthy.

[Alben Barkley]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

Republicans gloating as if they weren't expecting a red wave with the House called for them by 10 PM on election night.

[Oryxslayer]

Dave called AZ for Kelly just now. He's probably only ahead of the media by 1 sizable Maricopa dump.

[emailking]

At best they'll have an 18 seat advantage (unlikely). On the other end, Dems could have a 5 seat advantage. 8% inflation plus redistricting should have meant a 60 seat pickup minimum.

[Stockdale for Veep]

The Needle had a tough night this year. But, before it was turned off it did say CCM by 0.3

Long live the Needle!!!!

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590944022939717633

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/1590827521700139008?s=20&t=NwjGwF66euL...

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1590833435639259150?s=20&t=6vELd3gjz...

I've known that the WOW counties have been shifting but it seemed way slower than other suburbs, especially given how Republican they were to begin with. But going from +35 to +22 in four years is... pretty wow, actually.

And Barnes isn't that far behind. He's at 36.3 percent, which is running just 2 percent behind Evers and 1 percent behind Biden.

[Devils30]

What will the Dems 2024 House odds start at? I would say in the 60-65% range. They have so many swing district entrenched incumbents who will be tough to dislodge (with the exception of a seat or 2 that of course will flip anyway.

If Trump is on the ballot, the GOP is absolutely cooked in NY-3,4,17 and probably struggling in 19 and 22. Don't even get me started on NJ-7, PA-1, NE-2 and tons of other suburban seats in Cali (if we don't win them this year). These NY/NJ Rs cannot go MAGA without being completely fried in November 2024 and if they don't go MAGA, the base will hate them. Outside of winning the House with 219 or more, this is the best Dem scenario.

Yes, the GOP will get seats from the NC redraw, Dems need to counter in MN and WI (once they win the court in April). MN-1,8 and WI- 1,3 seem most likely to get more Dem.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

We will literally 'win' the House of Representatives - stay tuned for more and please keep us informed about your emotional state while you're watching it happen.

[Alben Barkley]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

Oh no! Now we won't get to try to govern with the slimmest majority in 90 years!

And with a Senate and President of the opposite party!

Now time for more cringe Hamilton lyrics:

They say
Nancy Pelosi's yielding her power and stepping away
That true?
I wasn't aware that was something a person could do
I'm perplexed
Are they gonna keep on replacing whoever's in charge?
If so, who's next?
There's nobody else in their chamber who looms quite as large…

Kevin McCarthy?!
I know him
That can't be
That's that little guy who spoke to me
All those years ago
What was it, 09?
That poor man, they're gonna eat him alive!
Oceans rise
Majorities fall
Next to Pelosi, they all look small
All alone
Watch them run
They will tear each other into pieces
Jesus Christ, this will be fun!

Da da da dat da dat da da da da ya da
Da da da dat dat da ya daaaaa!
Hahahahahahahahaha

“Speaker Kevin McCarthy?”
Good Luck!

[emailking]

Hot take: Fetterman would not have won if he skipped the debate.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Democrats gloating as if they’re not literally about to lose the House of Representatives, lol.

Democrats are going to lose less than 10 seats in the House when they were expected to lose 40. Democrats will probably gain 1 seat in the Senate instead of losing 4. Democrats are probably going to gain 2 governorships overall when they were expected to lose 4 or more. Democrats may have captured 5 state legislatures without losing any of their own. Of course we're gloating. Congrats, you'll have a razor-thin, ungovernable majority in the House; one so small that it could potentially be lost to special elections or defections mid-term. And we accomplished this all with 8% inflation, $4/gallon gas, and a President with 40% approvals a month before the election. When taking into account that kind of midterm environment, this is one of the most stunning electoral performances by a party in recent political history.

TLDR: cope and seethe

[Alben Barkley]

BOOM

HERE COMES THE GENERAL!

[Devils30]

Wasserman has seen enough in AZ Senate

[TheReckoning]

Hot take: Fetterman would not have won if he skipped the debate.

Fetterman is on track to win by ~3 points. The idea the debate, which was definitely not a decisive win by Fetterman, could’ve swayed that many people is insane.