Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Badger]

It's really hard to know how Guam or other territories would vote if they were allowed to vote in US presidential elections.  Their state politics are very different than US politics.
Before Alaska and Hawaii became states, Alaska was supposed to be Democratic and Hawaii Republican.

Agreed and ultimately it doesn't matter. DC, Puerto Rico, and Marianas can send an entirely Trumpist delegation to the House and Senate if they want it, and that's a better and fairer situation than the status quo, which is not letting them have any. The idea that we have second class Americans is gross.

DC in Puerto rico, yes. But even if you somehow combined the Marianas and Guam despite being separated by thousands of miles into a single state , and whatever other US territories are out there in the Pacific they would be far far smaller than even Wyoming. Their lack of population makes it very difficult to justify statehood and thus voting Congressional representation. Again though, not at all the case as Puerto Rico or DC

[Devils30]

I figure for 2024 (after redistricting) we will have a couple fewer Biden seats but it doesn't have to be. Biden won 226 and Trump 209.

Here is what I think is possible:

NC: -3 (223)
OH: -1 (222)
MN:+2 (224)
WI: +1-2 (225-226)

Dems can make this NC and OH crap a wash if they stay aggressive, not to mention NY.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Laxalt is finished

The oracle has spoken.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1591187229262553088?s=20&t=472jj5_dQQ...

[Crumpets]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

https://twitter.com/gardnerphil/status/1591169133735202816?t=NnjagK2WUowg-WLeyi6...

Yes, I'm also fairly uncertain about WA-03, but I consider this more likely pick-up than CA-27, for example. Anyway without WA-03 Democratic majority seems impossible, and Joe Kent in Congress is awful, awful thing

Also we should get a more clearer picture about this race today

Past precedent says:

3K-ish left in Thurston. GOP nets a tiny bit

7K-ish left in Cowlitz. seemingly should break even

30-35K-ish left in Clark. Past precedent says they should go GOP and cause a heartbreak. But if Dems were to be on track to win, and keep outperforming there, then things break even again.

And almost northing remains from the rest of the district.

These were my estimated remaining vote counts as of yesterday evening, which should still hold accurate until we get another ballot dump in a few hours:

Okay, granted the districts have changed since 2018, but here's my attempt to figure out roughly where the outstanding vote is in WA-3:

County / Currently reporting / 2018 total vote in county / % of 2018
Clark / 159,406 / 194,226 / 82.1%
Cowlitz / 36,503 / 44,402 / 82.2%
Lewis / 34,780 / 33,814 / 102.9%
Pacific / 9,407 / 10,793 / 87.2%
Skamania / 5,916 / 5,587 / 105.9%
Wahkiakum / 2,455 / 2,438 / 100.7%

So, it looks like the reports that Lewis is almost all in are pretty consistent with turnout at just above 2018 levels. If that's true, it looks like these are the rough remaining number of votes by county:

Clark: ~35,000-40,000
Cowlitz: ~8,000-10,000
Lewis: <1,000
Pacific: ~1,000-2,000
Skamania: <1,000
Wahkiakum: <1,000
Thurston: <1,000

Thurston is hardest to guess, just based on the changing district boundaries and no comparison to past midterms, but fortunately it's not a huge portion regardless.

[Figueira]

So, for Democrats to win, we need either AZ-1, AZ-6, or CA-45, in addition to all of CA-9, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, and WA-3.

Seems possible, but hard. The lesson for the future is not to give up on any district for stupid reasons.

That sounds like a nice lesson to learn, but in reality it is a platitude. You don't ever know with certainty, ahead of time, if you are triaging for a stupid reason, or if you are truly triaging a lost cause and putting a small number of additional resources into another district might make the difference in another district.

This is a fair point.

[Utah Neolib]

Culinary going to work to make sure ballots get cured.

https://twitter.com/atharesq/status/1591172832394113024?s=20&t=kZRioaCM-6yhs...

They cure all the time!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curing_(food_preservation)

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1591187229262553088

Net of 732 votes for the Dem

[Badger]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

I don't know, but it feels like I'm the only one ecstatic that Dems have gotten as close as they have in the House.

Folks came into Tuesday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+30 and we're coming into Friday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+5

Yeah, because we're already smelling to maintain the majority and Republicans in shambles tastes so great.

At this point, I'd be very content with a 218-217 GOP majority. Nothings getting done anyway at that close a main regardless of party control. Might as well give it to them so they can eat all the chaos and blame they want for 2 years.

Not a doomer, but I refuse to believe that the Republicans internal organization isn't solid enough to result in all the inane stupidity we would expect from a 50 vote Republican majority as a one seat majority. Shutting down the j6 committee, instead opening up endless mindless committee inquiries for the fuzzy bear Types on Hunter Biden's laptop, etc etc etc.

[justfollowingtheelections]

It's really hard to know how Guam or other territories would vote if they were allowed to vote in US presidential elections.  Their state politics are very different than US politics.
Before Alaska and Hawaii became states, Alaska was supposed to be Democratic and Hawaii Republican.

Agreed and ultimately it doesn't matter. DC, Puerto Rico, and Marianas can send an entirely Trumpist delegation to the House and Senate if they want it, and that's a better and fairer situation than the status quo, which is not letting them have any. The idea that we have second class Americans is gross.

DC in Puerto rico, yes. But even if you somehow combined the Marianas and Guam despite being separated by thousands of miles into a single state , and whatever other US territories are out there in the Pacific they would be far far smaller than even Wyoming. Their lack of population makes it very difficult to justify statehood and thus voting Congressional representation. Again though, not at all the case as Puerto Rico or DC

We can always reform the US Congress.  I can understand the argument about them being too small to have the same number of senators as California, but the same is true for Wyoming.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1591187229262553088?s=20&t=472jj5_dQQ...

One of the only specific political ads I received this cycle (along with a DeSantis one) was a Salas on youtube in Spanish. It was honestly not a “great” ad it was just a generic shill…but that shows that Salas really has been investing in trying to reach younger Latino voters in the district. (No clue why I got one…I’ve never been to that part of CA in my life) Anyways, hopefully it pays off.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One side note is that NYT seems to assume the remaining ballots out of LA county are evenly distributed across districts which likely isn’t true.

[Pres Mike]

Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

https://i.imgur.com/g3emCyU.png

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Why are Republicans turning aganist McConnell? It was the Trump backed canidiates that lost like Walker, Lake and Masters. Are they mad that money was spent on Alaska and not other states?

Perhaps they expect the behind the scenes war between Trump and McConnell to turn into open warefare and they are picking sides.

[7,052,770]

It's really hard to know how Guam or other territories would vote if they were allowed to vote in US presidential elections.  Their state politics are very different than US politics.
Before Alaska and Hawaii became states, Alaska was supposed to be Democratic and Hawaii Republican.

Agreed and ultimately it doesn't matter. DC, Puerto Rico, and Marianas can send an entirely Trumpist delegation to the House and Senate if they want it, and that's a better and fairer situation than the status quo, which is not letting them have any. The idea that we have second class Americans is gross.

DC in Puerto rico, yes. But even if you somehow combined the Marianas and Guam despite being separated by thousands of miles into a single state , and whatever other US territories are out there in the Pacific they would be far far smaller than even Wyoming. Their lack of population makes it very difficult to justify statehood and thus voting Congressional representation. Again though, not at all the case as Puerto Rico or DC

We can always reform the US Congress.  I can understand the argument about them being too small to have the same number of senators as California, but the same is true for Wyoming.

Nevada was less than half of the population than the next smallest state for its first century of statehood. That means there is solid precedent for a state of Marianas.

[Hammy]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

They won't be able to post their CONTROL OF THE SENATE HANGS IN THE BALANCE!!!!! type of headlines anymore

[Pres Mike]

Funny how no one seems to be talking about Guam anymore.
That was like -THE- story on here for much of Election Day.

Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam should be admitted as states immediately. It's a perfect compromise- a blue state, a swing state, and a red state, so no feelings have to get hurt to do the right thinf.

Guam + Northern Marianas Islands and I'm in.

A Marianas state would still have the lowest population in the Union, but 200k (201,165 in the 2020 Census) is enough for a state to support itself. Almost all western states were admitted with smaller populations than that.

Why not a state of Pacifica? Guam + Northern Marianas + American Samoa + the various pacific islands? Keep most the latter as federal lands in the new state on account of most of them don't got much in the way of people on them. But I've always wanted American Samoa to get more respect beyond their current status, and the first two are still rather tiny in terms of population.

Honestly I'd just give them to Hawaii

[Joe Republic]

I have no complaints about the signature-matching process, if doing their due diligence takes an exceptionally long time.  I am still registered to vote in Clark county despite leaving Nevada in 2019, and the process to de-register is tedious and not something millennials like me (or Gen Z) are ever going to bother doing.  So my ballots have been getting sent to some random stranger who now lives in my previous rented house.

[Virginiá]

I figure for 2024 (after redistricting) we will have a couple fewer Biden seats but it doesn't have to be. Biden won 226 and Trump 209.

Here is what I think is possible:

NC: -3 (223)
OH: -1 (222)
MN:+2 (224)
WI: +1-2 (225-226)

Dems can make this NC and OH crap a wash if they stay aggressive, not to mention NY.

Can Minnesota Democrats do a mid-decade redraw of the Congressional and/or legislative maps?

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591081399142223878

Katie Hobbs follows Big Gretchen's lead, gets North Korea levels of support with the youths

[Person Man]

NV and AZ are taking way too long with these "drops", IMO.

It's kind of annoying.

It's kind of annoying, but at the same time kind of fun.  It lets us draw out the election night excitement for a whole week!  Barring special elections, we won't be doing this again for quite a while.

It's less than four weeks until the runoff.

Hopefully CCM finishes him soon.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

https://i.imgur.com/g3emCyU.png

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Why are Republicans turning aganist McConnell? It was the Trump backed canidiates that lost like Walker, Lake and Masters. Are they mad that money was spent on Alaska and not other states?

Yes. Many of them have expressly said so.

[emailking]

I hope Adam Kinzinger becomes Speaker if Republicans take the House.

He's retiring though technically wouldn't have to be a member.

[2952-0-0]

Nevada was less than half of the population than the next smallest state for its first century of statehood. That means there is solid precedent for a state of Marianas.

From an outsider looking in - the territories could be granted one seat in each chamber regardless of their population, disregarding the normal apportionment rules, as done in the sparsely populated territories of France and Canada. I'm not sure if this is explicitly required by the Constitution, or whether Congress can simply pass a law granting them.

[Biden 2024]

It's really hard to know how Guam or other territories would vote if they were allowed to vote in US presidential elections.  Their state politics are very different than US politics.
Before Alaska and Hawaii became states, Alaska was supposed to be Democratic and Hawaii Republican.

I've heard this before but haven't read anything on it - Does anyone have any interesting resources about this? I understand why Hawaii was assumed to be a Republican stronghold (presumably it was the military connection?) but why Alaska?

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591081399142223878

Katie Hobbs follows Big Gretchen's lead, gets North Korea levels of support with the youths

I thought ASU was known for being a "party school" that wouldn't necessarily lean quite as liberal as a "Public Ivy" school like U-M? That makes this even more impressive.

Wonder what the results were like on the UK campus for the anti-choice amendment now, considering it got blown out of the water in Fayette County as a whole.