Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[new_patomic]

Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

[kwabbit]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

The fabled Maricopa Dump hasn't arrived yet. If that isn't insanely good for Masters it will be called.

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641?t=6wz3cz5XNfQlL8guFm6EDw&s=19

I would say this is still a premature call, but Chavez-DeRemer is favored here. Democrats path for majority just became even more thin

If that's accurate, the path for a majority is probably closed. A 219/220 Republican majority is going to be an utter clownshow. Maybe that helps Biden and the Democrats for 2024.

Here is a tweet in response to that post:

https://twitter.com/mrbluebird12/status/1591151315056742401

[Holmes]

Mastriano is replying to a bunch of Democrats' Veterans Day tweets saying dumb stuff like "you and your party attack veterans!" with a pic of himself like. Nah dude an attack on you isn't an attack on vets.

[Gass3268]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

The fabled Maricopa Dump hasn't arrived yet. If that isn't insanely good for Masters it will be called.

There is one more that will be very good for Republicans, the 17K of the last remaining E-Day vote. Other than that yeah, we have to see how the day of drop offs where.

[DaleCooper]

Not sure how DeSantis would help Walker all that much. Trump didn't help the Republicans in 2020's runoff, and he was (and probably still is) much more in line with the base than DeSantis, though DeSantis likely wouldn't frighten Dem-leaning voters as much so they have that advantage.

My thoughts are that the more attention on Georgia, the worse Walker will do.

[Torrain]

Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

https://i.imgur.com/g3emCyU.png

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

https://i.imgur.com/g3emCyU.png

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Seems like a standard far-right rogues' gallery other than Rubio. Florida Man solidarity?

[It’s so Joever]

DeSantis is Schrodinger’s politician. He manages to have both moderate and base appeal while also having moderate and base problems depending on who you ask.

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to the Nevada Independent's live blog (not the same as Ralston's early voting blog), Sisolak probably needs at least 2/3 of the remaining votes to win.  I don't see that happening.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Funny how no one seems to be talking about Guam anymore.
That was like -THE- story on here for much of Election Day.

[new_patomic]

Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

https://i.imgur.com/g3emCyU.png

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

I'll be genuinely amazed if Scott manages to escape backlash from his mishandling of the NRSC's finances and decision to not weigh in on any primaries, by just saying it's all Mitch McConnell's fault.

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, but still.

[Sestak]

CA-22 is not Lean R. There’s an absurd amount of Kern left to count.

[Devils30]

Not sure how DeSantis would help Walker all that much. Trump didn't help the Republicans in 2020's runoff, and he was (and probably still is) much more in line with the base than DeSantis, though DeSantis likely wouldn't frighten Dem-leaning voters as much so they have that advantage.

My thoughts are that the more attention on Georgia, the worse Walker will do.

Walker is the problem, not the people campaigning for him. Georgia is so inelastic and the math just benefits the Dems with such a poor candidate. Who votes Walker who didn't support him in round 1?

[Spectator]

Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

https://i.imgur.com/g3emCyU.png

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

If they oust McConnell, I guess that means the $9 million McConnell spent to win Murkowski’s loyalty is moot.

[justfollowingtheelections]

https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1591132421541351424?s=20&t=4tNpemTjAtF...

     I hope Walker picks up his phone right now and dials up RDS for some campaign stops.

I don't think this is good news for anti-Trump Republicans.  If this happens and Walker loses (which he most likely will given what a terrible candidate he is), Trump will be able to blame it on Desantis and Youngkin lol

[MillennialModerate]

I’d change some of those categories and seats….


R: 212
Recent calls: AZ-02, OR-05, CA-40

D: 199
Recent calls: NY-18, MD-06, CO-08, WA-08, OR-04, NV-01, NV-04, CA-46

Not called but clearly going R • 4
1. NY 22
2. CO-03
3. CA-27
4. AZ-06


Remaining lean R seats: 3
1. CA-03
2. CA-22
3. CA-45



Not called but clearly going D:
1. AK-AL
2. ME-02




Remaining lean D seats: 15
1. CA-47
2. WA-03
3. AZ-04
4. AZ-01
5. CA-49
6. OR-06
7. NV-03
8. CA-06
9. CA-09
10. CA-13
11. CA-21
12. CA-26
13. CA-35
14. CA-38
15. CA-41



NBC is right on the money. 220-215 is where it’s going to end up.

212 + 4 + 3 = 219

I corrected it - I think one of those D is leads is bound to flip cause a few are very close.

[Spectator]

Not sure how DeSantis would help Walker all that much. Trump didn't help the Republicans in 2020's runoff, and he was (and probably still is) much more in line with the base than DeSantis, though DeSantis likely wouldn't frighten Dem-leaning voters as much so they have that advantage.

My thoughts are that the more attention on Georgia, the worse Walker will do.

Walker is the problem, not the people campaigning for him. Georgia is so inelastic and the math just benefits the Dems with such a poor candidate. Who votes Walker who didn't support him in round 1?

Literally no one. Dems only lose if they dont get their people out.

[DaleCooper]

Not sure how DeSantis would help Walker all that much. Trump didn't help the Republicans in 2020's runoff, and he was (and probably still is) much more in line with the base than DeSantis, though DeSantis likely wouldn't frighten Dem-leaning voters as much so they have that advantage.

My thoughts are that the more attention on Georgia, the worse Walker will do.

Walker is the problem, not the people campaigning for him. Georgia is so inelastic and the math just benefits the Dems with such a poor candidate. Who votes Walker who didn't support him in round 1?

A handful of libertarians, maybe. Hard to see many people changing their minds between now and then. Del Tachi did bring up a fair point about how Democrats will have less time to bank up a good lead in the early vote, but realistically I still don't think Democrats will struggle much with turnout.

[Hope For A New Era]

Any reason why AZ senate hasn’t been called by major networks yet?

The fabled Maricopa Dump hasn't arrived yet. If that isn't insanely good for Masters it will be called.

There is one more that will be very good for Republicans, the 17K of the last remaining E-Day vote. Other than that yeah, we have to see how the day of drop offs where.

How good for the Republicans will the 17k be? Is it only from Maricopa?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

https://i.imgur.com/g3emCyU.png

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

If they oust McConnell, I guess that means the $9 million McConnell spent to win Murkowski’s loyalty is moot.

It would also be incredibly short-sighted of them.  Who's going to replace him?  McConnell, like him or not, is very good at practical politics.  He also gets along very well with Biden, which is a net plus for the Republicans whether they realize it or not.

[John Dule]

Out of your lean R seats, what do you think are the most likely upsets for the Dems?

It would have to be two of the California seats. CO-03 is gone IMO, and while I've heard optimism about AZ-06 from some Democrats I just don't see it.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

AZ-SEN was prematurely called in 2020.
CO-03 was prematurely called (and ended up being wrong) this year.

Races can be prematurely called in ways that are favorable to Democrats too. People find you completely insufferable because you have very clear double standards in your reasoning.

AZ-Sen was not prematurely called in 2020. Kelly won. The call stood.

Just because the outcome ended up standing doesn't mean the call wasn't premature.  Like, if someone wins by 2 votes in the end, but it was called at poll closing, are you saying that wouldn't be a premature call?  

[SCNCmod]

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

Ma'am, you're very close to being sent to Atlas horny jail. This is your last warning before being issued a TMI citation.

I'm open to hearing more about her appreciation for funny west-coast dudes.

Anyway, here is my current count based on calls (from any outlet) and concessions:

R: 212
Recent calls: AZ-02, OR-05, CA-40

D: 199
Recent calls: NY-18, MD-06, CO-08, WA-08, OR-04, NV-01, NV-04, CA-46

Remaining lean R seats: 7
1. NY-22
2. CO-03
3. AZ-06
4. CA-03
5. CA-22
6. CA-27
7. CA-45

Remaining lean D seats: 17
1. ME-02
2. WA-03
3. AZ-04
4. AZ-01
5. AK-AL
6. OR-06
7. NV-03
8. CA-06
9. CA-09
10. CA-13
11. CA-21
12. CA-26
13. CA-35
14. CA-38
15. CA-41
16. CA-47
17. CA-49

Out of your lean R seats, what do you think are the most likely upsets for the Dems?

I don't really have an informed answer to the question you posed... but it seems to me that in most past elections- California margins for Dems usually end up being higher than the "estimate" made based on election day vote (2020 could be an exception in some republican areas due to covid leading more republicans to vote by mail/ drop box/ etc)

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’d change some of those categories and seats….


R: 212
Recent calls: AZ-02, OR-05, CA-40

D: 199
Recent calls: NY-18, MD-06, CO-08, WA-08, OR-04, NV-01, NV-04, CA-46

Not called but clearly going R • 4
1. NY 22
2. CO-03
3. CA-27
4. AZ-06


Remaining lean R seats: 3
1. CA-03
2. CA-22
3. CA-45



Not called but clearly going D:
1. AK-AL
2. ME-02




Remaining lean D seats: 15
1. CA-47
2. WA-03
3. AZ-04
4. AZ-01
5. CA-49
6. OR-06
7. NV-03
8. CA-06
9. CA-09
10. CA-13
11. CA-21
12. CA-26
13. CA-35
14. CA-38
15. CA-41



NBC is right on the money. 220-215 is where it’s going to end up.

212 + 4 + 3 = 219

I corrected it - I think one of those D is leads is bound to flip cause a few are very close.

A good chunk of those D seats, particularly the CA ones will end up going to Dems by quite a bit in the end (CA-06, CA-35, CA-38, CA-21, ect)